Opinion: Will They Let You Leave With Your Win?

There is a story told by Texas poker legend T.J. Cloutier that I've always remembered since first hearing it. Back in the outlaw poker days of the 1970s in Texas, when players like Cloutier made their living not in casinos or online but at illegal, in-person cash games, he spotted a group of guys in the back of a building playing poker. There was a lot of money on the table and the players weren't very good: surely a prime opportunity for a hustler like Cloutier. However, he had a funny feeling. There was a security guard close to the table, and Cloutier asked him two questions:

“Can I join that poker game?”

“Sure,” the guard replied.

“If I win money, will I be able to leave with it?”

At this, the security guard scratched his head for a moment and then smiled. “You know, no one has ever asked me that question before. My advice? Don't play at this table.” That anecdote is one I think of frequently regarding combat sports. If you face a popular opponent and beat them, will you be able to leave with your win? In boxing, the answer has long been no, and it has largely crippled the sport. Time and again, less popular but more skilled pugilists clearly beat more famous foes, only to have the judges give it to the money draw. Just look at Oscar de la Hoya's career, beginning with the shameful robbery he won against the great Pernell Whitaker. Or go back to Whitaker's fight against Julio Cesar Chavez, where Whitaker boxed Chavez's ears off for 12 rounds only to have two of the three judges declare the bout a farcical draw. Any longtime boxing fan can come up with hundreds of other examples in high-profile fights.

This very much applies to MMA and the Ultimate Fighting Championship as well. Look at Paddy Pimblett’s fight against Jared Gordon at UFC 282 last month. Or Sherdog's 2022 Robbery of the Year, where former bantamweight champion Petr Yan won every round against Sean O'Malley, only to walk away with a loss. People always grouse about incompetent judges, but they're not the culprits nor should they be the focus. It's a unique form of incompetence that consistently favors the bigger star and one that, by wild coincidence, always benefits the promotion.

Sure, you can come in and beat a popular opponent, but will they let you leave with the win? Let's break down how this affects the three main groups in MMA: the fighters, the fans and the promotions.

The Fighters

The fighters are in a tough spot. Oftentimes, facing a big star means big money, more than they would get for fighting a regular opponent. And if they refuse, they don't get paid. This isn't even getting into the difficulty of anticipating certain robberies. Yan is one of the most exciting fighters in the sport, has a large following of his own and is a recent former champion who has been in the co-main event of two different pay-per-views, one of which he won. I'm sure he thought he would get a fair shake against O'Malley. He thought wrong.

The only real choice fighters have is the promotion they join, as some are clearly fairer than others. Among the best, I have to applaud Bellator MMA. I struggle to think of a single instance where a heavily hyped star was given a robbery against a less heralded foe. Moreover, there are instances where the unknown was given the decision in a very close fight, even if didn't fit in with promotional plans. Look at Valerie Loureda vs. Hannah Guy, for instance. Media and fans alike were split on who deserved to win, but the anonymous Guy received a unanimous decision against the heavily hyped Loureda.

The Fans

To me, as a lifelong, passionate fan of MMA since I was eight years old in the mid-90s, there is nothing more sickening than the robberies stars enjoy. I'm perfectly aware of various seedy aspects of the sport outside the ring and cage, but the hope and promise are that everything that takes place inside of it is legitimate; just two warriors deciding whose fighting ability is superior. It's why I love the sport so damn much and care about who wins and loses. Robberies in favor of the bigger money-maker puncture that fantasy and reveal it to be a sham. When that happens too many times, a fan becomes deeply disillusioned.

The Promotions

This is the most interesting part of the analysis. On the one hand, star favoritism clearly works in the short-term. For instance, the return of former UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones was recently announced, in a bout with Ciryl Gane for the vacant UFC heavyweight title, and most fans were ecstatic. Would they be as ecstatic if Jones' record was 23-4 instead of 26-1, and on a two-fight losing streak against Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes to go with a decision loss against Alexander Gustafsson in their first meeting? In particular, Jones’ last fight, against Reyes just under three years ago, was close yet easy to score. Reyes clearly won the first three rounds and Jones clearly won the last two. Naturally, when the scorecards were read, not a single judge scored the fight for Reyes. Having Reyes win would have hurt Jones' mystique and drawing power, but it wouldn't have necessarily made Reyes a star—especially if Reyes were to lose his next three fights by knockout, as he has.

Thus, there is a clear incentive here. But very often what is good in the short term is bad in the long term. As I noted, boxing promoters found this out the hard way, as a litany of these robberies eventually caused many lifelong die-hards, myself included, to tune out. What was the damn point of watching and pretending any of these farces were legitimate? It is an example MMA promotions would do well to heed, before the sport heads down the same path of decline and irrelevance.