Opinion: Pandemic Panic

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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One Championship’s “King of the Jungle” event in February was certainly a card to remember. MMA legend Yoshihiro Akiyama made his return to the cage and notched a first-round technical knockout over Sherif Mohamed at 44 years of age; Kimihiro Eto secured a surprising first-round rear-naked choke over promotional staple Amir Khan; and One strawweight kickboxing champion Sam-A Gaiyanghadao added another belt to his collection by capturing the organization’s inaugural strawweight muay Thai championship over Rocky Ogden. In the main event, Janet Todd pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year by dethroning 22-year-old prodigy Stamp Fairtex for the One atomweight kickboxing title in a war that saw the American win via split decision.

Despite all the in-cage action, the biggest reason as to why the event was such a memorable one came down to what was lacking outside of the ring: the crowd.

One Championship CEO Chatri Sityodtong on Feb. 17 announced via his Facebook page that the card set to take place 11 days later would be closed to the general public amid concerns of the coronavirus outbreak. Although there would be no audience in attendance, the fights would still take place as scheduled and broadcast across various streaming platforms and television stations, with ticketholders receiving a full refund. Sityodtong stated that while he had the option of canceling the event altogether, he felt it was important for the promotion to put on show a for the fans and “unite as a country” to “conquer this coronavirus.” Three weeks later on March 9, Sityodtong announced that the One “Heart of Heroes” card scheduled to take place in Vietnam later in the month would be postponed until June, citing similar concerns over the growing epidemic.

One Championship may have been the first organization to shift its live events schedule, but it has hardly been the only promotion to do so. On the same day that the Singapore-based company announced the delay of its Vietnam card, Combate Americas revealed that it was postponing all of its March events in response to the outbreak, with plans to resume broadcasting shows from a closed-set television studio starting on April 3. Three days earlier on March 6, emerging promotion ARES Fighting Championship announced the postponement of its second-ever event due to the coronavirus, stating that the health of its audience was its top priority. Polish promotion KSW on March 11 confirmed that KSW 53 would be canceled for similar concerns.

As I posited here, those promotions may be in for a bit of a rough patch depending on how much they rely on live gate for incoming revenue. While larger companies such as the Ultimate Fighting Championship and Bellator MMA have extremely lucrative broadcast deals in place, smaller MMA organizations’ media-rights agreements pale in comparison, meaning that ticket sales often play a significant role in keeping operations running. Even if a particular promotion can survive without its live gate numbers, there will undoubtedly be internal ramifications due to the unexpected loss of income, whether it be staff reductions or cuts to planned yearly expenditures.

That’s not to say the two largest organizations in the industry will be unaffected. As the virus continues to spread, travel restrictions between countries have increased, governments have stepped in to limit the size of public gatherings and popular seasonal sporting events have either removed audiences—see: the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments—or are wrestling with the possibility of cancellation or postponement, even the 2020 Summer Olympics. Italy is currently in a country-wide lockdown due to the coronavirus, and an Italian fighter has already been pulled from Cage Warriors 113 due to travel restrictions. As both the UFC and Bellator have a strong global presence with rosters that include fighters from around the world, it seems inevitable that they will be affected in some capacity, whether it be through fighters being removed from cards or their having to postpone or cancel particular events. We’re looking at you UFC on ESPN 8. Should other nations follow Italy’s lead if the spread of the disease worsens, there will be nothing the UFC or Bellator can do about it.

At the moment, however, both organizations seem to be undeterred by the growing pandemic. During a UFC 249 press conference on March 6, UFC President Dana White addressed concerns about the virus by stating that the promotion had been monitoring the situation for some time but had no plans to cancel the upcoming pay-per-view card. In an interview with TSN two days later, White reinforced the idea that it would be business as usual for the company, saying that he “didn’t give a s--- about the coronavirus” and that the UFC was always looking out for the safety of the fighters no matter what the situation. A spokesperson for Bellator, who is set to put on Bellator 241 on March 13 at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut, told ESPN that the promotion expects the event to go on without issue but conceded the company was monitoring the virus, as well.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the outbreak is only going to get worse. As containment measures continue to fail, stricter government measures will begin to be put in place around the world. Those in the business of sports, including MMA, will have to adjust. The most likely scenario moving forward will be for promotions to hold closed-door events, just as One did in February, and keep their broadcast deals intact while they find ways to make up for the loss of live gate revenue. Many companies will probably follow Combate Americas’ lead in finding a smaller venue they can use for an extended period in order to save on fees and reduce travel. Depending on how well a particular MMA organization is prepared for a disruption in its business model, there is also the possibility that fighters could be released from cash-strapped promotions in an effort to cut down on costs.

As the coronavirus epidemic rapidly changes into a worldwide pandemic, there is little doubt that sporting events as we know them will have to undergo some sort of transformation, if only temporarily. While postponing events will be a tempting option for many, the truth is that we don’t know exactly how long the virus will stay in the general populace and whether or not seasonal changes will slow its spread. For those promotions with advantageous media-rights deals, the current situation is most likely just a bump in the road, but for smaller companies without that cushion, the disease could cripple their business. Just how bad things get and the way that the MMA industry responds to the increasing threat of the coronavirus remains to be seen, but at least in the short-term, one can probably expect several forthcoming announcements of refunds for ticketholders—perhaps even for UFC 249.