Opinion: A Battle of Yo-Yos

There is a frequently repeated saying in combat sports that you're only as good as your last fight. But what if one's stock massively swings from one match to another, alternating highly impressive outings with very disappointing ones? That is, a fighter's reputation that of a yo-yo? Few fighters in all of MMA exemplify the constant rise and fall of reputation more than Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez, and this past weekend, they fought one another.

Let us first consider Rodriguez. After his sensational knockout of B.J. Penn in 2017, where practically the entire fight was a highlight, the 24-year-old Mexican dynamo became a big star and was already talked about as a serious contender for the featherweight throne. His stock, however, took a big hit when he faced Frankie Edgar, then considered the third best featherweight after champion Jose Aldo and challenger Max Holloway, at UFC 211. While Rodriguez was considered even money to triumph, not only did he lose, but Edgar utterly exposed his grappling deficiencies, dominating him with repeated takedowns and ground-and-pound before the doctor waved off the contest after Round 2, as Rodriguez's eye was swollen shut.

Coming back a year and a half later, Rodriguez reminded people why he was such a special warrior when he defeated Chan Sung Jung with a last-second spinning back elbow in Round 5 in a fight he would otherwise have lost on the cards. Despite Rodriguez being a very small favorite and having lost the first 24 and a half minutes of the fight, his stock bounced back up greatly after one of the greatest battles I or most fans have ever witnessed.

Rodriguez's two fights against Jeremy Stephens, the first of which ended in a no-contest and the second in a unanimous decision win, actually hurt his stock considerably, despite Rodriguez again only being a small favorite. While Rodriguez won the first two rounds against Stephens in the rematch, he was taken down in the third and viciously beaten in the exact same way that Edgar had done almost two and a half years previously, except this time by a lesser wrestler in Stephens. A lot of people wrote off Rodriguez as a serious title challenger at this point despite his young age, as he had failed to meaningfully improve his major weakness.

Coming back two whole years later against Holloway, Rodriguez found himself an enormous +500 underdog. Yet despite losing the decision, Rodriguez tremendously improved his reputation, putting himself back on the map. He had fought on even terms with a recent champion and featherweight legend, barely losing the decision 48-47 on most observers’ cards. It was even more impressive when one considers that two fights ago, Holloway had won by that same 48-47 scorecard in a rematch against featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski in most people's eyes, mine included.

Now let us examine Ortega. Coming up the ranks, Ortega gained the reputation of a cutthroat, endlessly thrilling finisher who would lose rounds, but always manage to incapacitate his opponent. The myth that he lost every completed round on the cards before facing Holloway for the title is as exaggerated as the claim that Kamaru Usman never lost a single round prior to defeating Woodley for the crown, but nevertheless, Ortega became known for insane comebacks. That was supposed to come to an end against legend Edgar at UFC 222, but instead Ortega uncorked his most brilliant performance yet, showing improved striking with a gorgeous elbow strike and follow-up punches that knocked out the former champion late in Round 1.

With Ortega's stock higher than ever, and concerns about champion Max Holloway's health, the challenger actually found himself a very tiny favorite when challenging for the title at a highly anticipated clash at UFC 231. Of course, as Holloway proved that night and a couple of times since then, one should never underestimate the Hawaiian, and the champion administered one of the most brutal beatings ever seen in a title contest, hitting Ortega with a few hundred flush strikes before a merciful stoppage at the end of Round 4.

Coming back nearly two years later, Ortega's stock had dropped massively and he found himself a roughly +175 underdog against the “Korean Zombie.” Impressing everyone, Ortega showed vastly improved defense and overall standup technique, dominating Jung en route to an easy five-round decision. His stock had yo-yoed back to being as high as ever.

The win earned him a title shot, and better odds against Volkanovski than he had had against Jung. However, despite a very courageous performance in one of the best fights of the year, Volkanovski proved his greatness and Ortega suffered another beating in a decision loss, though he never stopped trying to win. Ortega's reputation in terms of skill dropped yet again, even as his reputation for excitement and toughness rose.

Interestingly, this constant change in fan perception of both fighters extends beyond purely fighting skills. Rodriguez was long beloved by MMA fans for his tremendously exciting style, featuring a slew of vicious kicks, a willingness to engage toe-to-toe, and some of the most creative strikes the sport has ever seen, like the aforementioned last-second elbow that knocked out Jung. However, Rodriguez's first fight against Stephens, which ended with him gouging Stephens' eye, was seen by some as intentional, a way to get out of the bout and hurt his opponent, and his strident post-fight interview, where he criticized Stephens for not continuing despite serious injury, didn't help matters. This caused many former fans to turn on the young star.

Ortega's own incident was far more egregious and utterly unforgivable. Sitting in the stands of UFC 248, Ortega walked over and, unprovoked, slapped Korean rapper Jay Park in the face. Park is not a fighter nor does he pretend to be. He is not even an athlete, and is much smaller than Ortega. An elite mixed martial artist attacking him was the equivalent of a normal adult male attacking an elderly woman. And what was Ortega's justification for the assault? That Park had dared to translate the words of his friend Jung, words which had annoyed Ortega. Tellingly, Ortega didn't decide to confront Jung in the stands, despite plenty of opportunity to do so, as that wouldn't have been so easy. After the assault, Ortega doubled down, bragging about his cowardly actions.

I have a rule for my columns to ignore the personal failings of currently active mixed martial artists and focus instead on their exceptional fighting ability, bravery, and intelligence in the cage or ring. Given that they put their bodies on the line for our entertainment, it's the least I owe them as a fan. I have written glowingly about many fighters whose personalities I dislike. However, this rule is not endlessly elastic. There are a few fighters—War Machine, Aleksander Emelianenko and Travis Fulton, among others— whose behavior is so heinous or shameful that it's impossible to ignore and taints their accomplishments, as they have betrayed everything that an honorable martial artist is supposed to stand or. Ortega falls into the latter, shameful category.

Anyway, I can't think of two other fighters whose reputations change so drastically up and then down with almost every outing. So what happened when the two fighters with yo-yo reputations faced off?

It was strangely anti-climactic. Ortega was a solid favorite, but Rodriguez was tagging him with faster, straighter, more technical punches in the early going, as even many Ortega backers had been expecting. Rodriguez stuffed Ortega's early takedown attempt, though it allowed the Californian to clinch with him and score with some solid knees against the cage. Rodriguez finally achieved separation after defending a trip and pushing off with 90 seconds left, nailed his foe with a gorgeous one-two. After more effective striking by the Mexican, Ortega clinched again and muscled through a nice hip toss. As Rodriguez pivoted for a possible armbar attempt that had little chance of success, Ortega suddenly grabbed his arm and fell to the canvas, unable to continue due to injury. Ortega's stock definitely takes a hit, but it is unclear how much good the result does for Rodriguez, either. We already know how outstanding his striking is, but we didn't learn whether his grappling has improved, or how much.

Can we learn anything from this? Clearly, most of us fall into the trap of overrating the last performance of a fighter. There should have been a little more skepticism of Ortega and Rodriguez after their impressive outings and more leeway and credit to their great opponents after their disappointing ones. That's understandable, given how infrequently mixed martial artists compete compared to other athletes, often with large improvements or regressions between showings. Still, for the serious gambler or keener observer, it pays to be more temperate.