Matches to Make After UFC on ESPN 38

Mateusz Gamrot and Arman Tsarukyan took an ordinary-looking fight night card and gave it an extraordinary finish.

After back-to-back stellar events in packed arenas in Singapore and Austin, Texas, and one week ahead of the monster UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, the Ultimate Fighting Championship pulled into the small, quiet confines of the Apex for UFC on ESPN 38, with a main event featuring Tsarukyan and Gamrot, two outstanding lightweights whose skill and potential greatly outstrip their name value. What could easily have been a forgettable “letdown” card in between blockbusters instead provided a wealth of thrilling moments, many of them in the headliner, as “Gamer” and “Ahalkalakets” delivered five rounds of high-level wrestling, grappling and striking, conducted at a furious pace and featuring multiple swings in momentum.

In the end, Gamrot’s greater experience in five-round fights showed out, and the former KSW two-division champ prevailed by a somewhat controversial unanimous decision, but neither man’s stock figures to fall. Tsarukyan should come back better in his next 25-minute fight—of which there will probably be many, as he still looks like a major factor in the division’s future. Gamrot, meanwhile, gives the appearance of a serious title contender, and just in time, as the logjam atop the UFC’s 155-pound division finally shows some signs of breaking up. In the wake of “UFC Vegas 57,” here are matchups that ought to be made for Gamrot and the other main card winners.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Michael Chandler

Let us be blunt: Gamrot was fortunate to escape the Apex with the “W” on Saturday. That does not change the fact, however, that the 31-year-old Pole is one of the toughest and most well-rounded fighters in a division packed with tough, well-rounded fighters, and that he used guts and cardio to pull out the win over a quicker, younger fighter who had taken the first two rounds handily. Gamrot called out Justin Gaethje after the main event, and while that would be competitively appropriate and one hell of a fun fight, Gaethje is probably still a little bit of a reach. The UFC’s top lightweights of the post-Khabib Nurmagomedov era fall into a clear pecking order through head-to-head clashes: Charles Oliveira is the top dog, despite his recent weight miss, followed by Dustin Poirier, Gaethje and Chandler, with Tony Ferguson having essentially fallen off the map. Poirier, Gaethje and Chandler all have something to prove before another shot at Oliveira, so they will need to fight rising contenders while Islam Makhachev—and perhaps Beneil Dariush—get their chance. While Chandler has the worst head-to-head tally against Oliveira, Poirier and Gaethje, he came closer to beating “do Bronx” than any of the others, and can help his own stock significantly by turning away the hard-charging Gamrot, while Gamrot could justify a title shot for himself by taking out the former Bellator MMA champ.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Kevin Holland

On a night full of eye-opening performances by rising prospects, perhaps none was as startling as Rakhmonov’s one-sided thrashing of Neil Magny in the co-main event. “Nomad” dominated the fight from the opening exchanges of the first round all the way to the buzzer-beating guillotine choke that ended things in Round 2. In handing Magny his first submission loss in nearly five years, Rakhmonov ran his own gaudy record to 16-0, the last four of which have come in the UFC and all of which have been finishes. While the former M-1 champ does not get one-tenth the publicity of Khamzat Chimaev—though that may begin to change—his Octagon résumé is arguably the stronger of the two, taking into consideration whom each man has defeated, and how. There is no need to rush the 27-year-old along, but he has earned at least a Top 10-ish matchup with name value. Holland, who throttled Tim Means last weekend in Austin for his second straight stoppage win since dropping to welterweight, fills the bill on both counts. Conversely, Rakhmonov would offer Holland the chance to demonstrate that the change in weight class has solved the defensive wrestling issues that blocked his progress at middleweight.

Josh Parisian vs. Justin Tafa-Don'Tale Mayes winner

Even by the standards of an unranked UFC heavyweight slobber-knocker, Parisian’s second-round TKO win over Alan Baudot was a mess. A fun mess, to be sure, but it’s hard to prescribe a big step up for Parisian after he barely survived a first-round onslaught from the worst heavyweight on the UFC roster. To complicate matters further, this summer is a relative dry spell for active heavyweights aside from headlining contenders; booking Parisian against someone like Alexander Volkov, who was victorious last month, or the winner of next month’s Curtis Blaydes-Tom Aspinall main event in London, sounds like a crime against humanity. The best option is Tafa or Mayes, who meet at UFC 277 on July 30 in Dallas. The winner of that matchup, like Parisian, will have proven that he belongs in the UFC, but is still a far cry from the Top 10.

Thiago Moises vs. Joe Solecki

Even on the first two-fight skid of his career, Moises’ job was probably safe heading into his clash with Christos Giagos on Saturday. However, he was absolutely in danger of becoming just another guy in the ultra-crowded lightweight division should he come up short against Giagos. No problem there, as Moises stuck to the Californian like a leech, taking his back standing and executing an unconventional modified rear-naked choke for the first-round finish. The dominant win revealed the 27-year-old Brazilian for what he is: a gifted grappler who was rushed into Top 10 matchups a little too early thanks to a three-fight win streak over fairly well-known names, but is not a finished product, not even in his physical prime yet, and should be treated as a prospect rather than a contender for now. He seems aware of it as well, in light of him naming fellow up-and-coming grappler Solecki, who took a unanimous decision over Alex da Silva Coelho on June 4 to go 4-1 in the UFC. There’s nothing we love better than a realistic callout, and it sounds like a fun fight to boot.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista

The 26-year-old with the famous last name and the spotless record entered the Octagon on Saturday as the biggest betting favorite on the card. His performance managed to make -900 odds look downright reasonable, steamrolling a pretty good bantamweight in Nathan Maness to the tune of 30-26 and 30-25 scorecards. Comparisons to the other undefeated Nurmagomedov, retired lightweight champ and soon to be UFC Hall-of-Famer Khabib, are inevitable, and in some cases do not even do justice; while his suffocating wrestling and top game are very much in the family tradition, Umar’s striking is already far more diverse and dynamic than his cousin’s ever was. The obvious temptation will be to fast-track the phenom, but the fact remains that he is just 3-0 in the UFC and his best win, over Brian Kelleher back in March, wasn’t even at bantamweight. There is no rush here; the bantamweight title picture is a complete logjam at the moment, thanks to the long-delayed Aljamain Sterling-Petr Yan rematch, the flock of former champs hovering over the division like hijacked planes around an airport, and the wealth of “normal” contenders working their way up the ladder. Nurmagomedov isn’t even the only 20-something wunderkind making waves; look no further than Adrian Yanez and Sean O'Malley. For now, let Nurmagomedov get some rounds, and some different looks, under his belt, and let it start with Bautista, who strangled Kelleher on the “UFC Vegas 75” prelims—even quicker than Nurmagomedov, and in their proper weight class, no less.

Chris Curtis vs. Brad Tavares-Dricus Du Plessis winner

Curtis had been a talented and consistently exciting regional fighter for years before he flamed out against the best of the Professional Fighters League’s welterweight division in 2019, and I figured that would be as close as “The Action Man” got to a top-level promotion for the rest of his career. So color me surprised that Curtis is plying his trade in the Octagon in 2022, and positively shocked that he is 3-0 with wins over three very credible foes—at middleweight. After highlight-reel knockouts of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen, Curtis tackled the challenge of jiu-jitsu world champ Rodolfo Vieira—or more accurately, refused to be tackled, as an increasingly exhausted and frustrated “Black Belt Hunter” went 0-for-20 on takedown attempts and Curtis picked up a unanimous decision victory. Curtis has gone from being a fun story to a potential contender, and he has earned a matchup that can propel him into a middleweight Top 10 that is dying for new faces. Perennial contender Tavares meets Du Plessis, another relative newcomer on the rise, at UFC 276 next week. The winner would be an ideal foil for Curtis.