Fantasy Advisor: UFC 202 Diaz vs McGregor
(Sponsored Content) -- Who takes the rematch – Diaz or McGregor?
That’s the tough question you face as both a fight fan and as a
fantasy player at this weekend’s much anticipated UFC 202: Diaz vs
McGregor II.
Which round? Via KO, TKO, sub or decision? Does Nate Diaz secure another early round sub or does “Mystic Mac” McGregor dish up the shock and awe with a vicious comeback win?
You decide.
If you have not already heard of fantasy MMA – you’ve surely heard of fantasy football. Same concept here folks, but it’s strikes, takedowns and early round finishes you want in lieu of touchdowns, rushed yards and pass completions.
From 10-12 bouts to choose from at each week’s Fight Night, players build a team of five picks, where it’s not just the win that matters. Once the card begins, your team of 5 fighters gain points by accruing significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, advances, and reversals/sweeps. Oh, and finishes are GOLD: Earn a bonus every time your fighter finishes their opponent, with more bonus points the earlier in the fight the finish comes. With 24 fighters to choose from, you’re looking for a value pick and a hidden underdog to distinguish your team from the rest.
To get your team going, you could go study some film or poke around the Sherdog.com Fight Finder, but we’ve done the dirty work for you, breaking down each and every one of the fights on the card -- providing top picks of the night and which fights you’re likely better off avoiding. Got to decide between Johnson, Teixeira, Cerrone or Story? … Let’s go!
Want to play? Join this week’s $5,000 free contest before it’s too late.
Welterweight bout (five rounds): Conor McGregor ($10,400) vs. Nate Diaz ($9,200)
The first fight between these two rivals took place just five months ago in March, with Diaz emerging with a second-round submission victory as a massive underdog in a fight he took on short notice. McGregor badly wanted a rematch, and the UFC decided to run this one back. If it’s anything like the first fight, it should be an amazing fight for the fans to watch. In the first fight, McGregor did well early on, landing strikes and cutting Diaz open, but he wasn’t able to wobble Diaz and as the fight went on, he began to fatigue. Diaz, with his incredible cardio, took advantage of McGregor tiring, hurting him on the feet with his boxing and then tapping him out on the ground. Although I did pick McGregor in the first fight, after seeing that fight I have a hard time picking him in this rematch. It was very obvious in that fight McGregor’s knockout power at featherweight didn’t translate well to welterweight and I doubt five months of training is going to make much of a difference. McGregor probably won’t gas as quickly this time, but he’ll never have the cardio of Diaz, and although McGregor does have more KO power, Diaz has incredible boxing in his own right, and he has the grappling advantage if this fight does hit the ground. Diaz finished McGregor just a few months ago and even if McGregor makes adjustments, I see no reason why Diaz can’t do it again. I still think McGregor is an amazing fighter, but he should not be fighting bigger men at welterweight. I’m going with Diaz here, I think he finishes McGregor again and then potentially gets a lightweight title fight against Eddie Alvarez.
Pick: Diaz
Light heavyweight bout: Anthony Johnson ($10,700) vs. Glover Teixeira ($8,700)
Johnson has emerged as a serious threat since coming back to the UFC as a light heavyweight, going 5-1 overall with four knockout wins and his only loss coming to the champion Daniel Cormier. Johnson has some of them most brutal one-punch knockout power in the game today and he’s proven that with his wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Ryan Bader, Jimi Manuwa and Antonio Rogerio Nogueria. Still, his ground game isn’t the greatest, and that could come into play here against Teixeira. The Brazilian is 8-2 in the UFC with seven stoppage wins and is currently riding a three-fight win streak with all of those wins coming by way of stoppage, including a massive knockout win over Johnson’s training partner Rashad Evans his last time out. In his career, Teixeira has earned finishes in 22 of his 25 career victories, and he’s proven to be incredibly durable, having only been stopped once in 29 career fights, a knockout loss in his MMA debut 14 years ago. Although Johnson is an incredible fighter with scary knockout power, Teixeira is the more well-rounded fighter and if he can implement his grappling game he has a chance of pulling off the upset. There are always some underdogs who surprise on every card, and although it’s hard to go against Johnson, I feel like at this price there is some underdog value on Teixeira, and I’m going to pick him for the upset to get a submission win and potentially the next light heavyweight title shot against Cormier.
Pick: Teixeira
Welterweight bout: Donald Cerrone ($10,000) vs. Rick Story ($9,400)
Cerrone has won 10 of his last 11 fights and has looked incredible since moving up to welterweight, stopping Patrick Cote and Alex Oliveira in two incredible performances. Cerrone has an amazing muay Thai game to go along with a slick submission game and underrated wrestling, making him one of the most well-rounded fighters currently at 170lbs. And with 22 of his 30 career wins coming by way of finish, it’s certainly fair to call him a true finisher in the sport. Story has long been an underrated member of the UFC welterweight division and he’s currently riding a three-fight win streak. In fact, if two split decision losses went his way like most thought, he would be on a seven-fight win streak. Basically, he’s quite good. The thing about this fight that is most interesting is the durability of both men, as Cerrone has only been stopped three times in 38 fights while Story has only lost by submission once in 27 fights and he’s never been knocked out. Although Cerrone has looked great at welterweight, Story has as well, and he’s been doing it at this weight class for a much longer time. Although it’s hard to find flaws in either fighter, one flaw Cerrone has is his susceptibility to body attacks, something Story excels at. If Story can get Cerrone up against the fence and beat him up, he can get the upset win. It’s hard to bet against either man right now, and although I am going to pick Story, he’s not someone I’m looking at for my team as I see this fight going the distance.
Pick: Story
Don’t forget to join this week’s contest for your chance to win big. Click here to draft now.
Welterweight bout: Hyun Gyu Lim ($11,100) vs. Mike Perry ($8,300)
Lim is 3-2 in the UFC with three knockout wins and his only losses coming to top-ranked Neil Magny and Tarec Saffiedine. He is massive for the welterweight division and blessed with a long reach which he uses to maximum potential with devastating attacks from all of his, ahem, limbs. Perry took this fight on extremely short notice and although he is undefeated in his career with all six of his wins coming by way of knockout, fighting Lim on short notice in his UFC debut seems like a daunting task. Perry is a wildcard with his power, and he is the younger fighter in this matchup, but Lim is an excellent striker and has been fighting high-level fighters in the UFC for a while now. His long layoff is a concern, but overall I like him in this matchup and see him winning by knockout.
Pick: Lim
Welterweight bout: Tim Means ($10,900) vs. Sabah Homasi ($8,500)
Means has looked exceptional since moving up to welterweight, going 5-2 in the UFC with three finishes and his lone losses coming to Matt Brown and Neil Magny, who are both top-ranked fighters in the division. Means has some of the best striking in the division and has legitimate knockout power, making him a threat against anyone who decides to stand and trade with him. In his career, he has won 21 of his 25 victories by stoppage. His takedown defense has looked solid at 170, but in the past his wrestling has proven a weakness, although it might not come into play in this fight against another striker in Homasi, who has won three-fights in a row by way of stoppage. He looks like a very solid prospect but he has not fought a high level of competition. He is also taking this fight on short notice and against a dangerous opponent like Means that could spell trouble. Homasi will win some fights in the UFC, but this is too much for his debut. Looks for Means and Homasi to stand and trade, with Means emerging as the winner via knockout, probably early in the fight.
Pick: Means
Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt ($10,300) vs. Takeya Mizugaki ($9,100)
Garbrandt is one of the top prospects in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s so far 4-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins, including a massive knockout victory over Thomas Almeida his last time out. In his undefeated career, he’s won eight of nine victories by stoppage and with his heavy hands has the potential to knock out anyone in the division. At only 25, he’s still getting better and better every time we see him. He is facing a stern test here in the form of Mizugaki, who has over 30 fights in his career, including an 8-4 record in the UFC. Mizugaki is more of a decision fighter who blankets opponents with his wrestling and beats them up with a solid boxing attack, but he lacks stopping power and his chin has been cracked in the past. Mizugaki is capable of playing spoiler if he can get his wrestling going, but it’s more likely Garbrandt finds his chin and knocks him out, and the youngster looks like a good pick here at the price.
Pick: Garbrandt
Women’s bantamweight bout: Elizabeth Phillips ($10,200) vs. Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Phillips is 1-2 in the UFC with all three of her fights going the distance and with her only win coming over Jessamyn Duke. She hasn’t fought in over a year and while she might have improved since then, she certainly did not look like anything special the last time we saw her. Pennington is 4-2 in the UFC with two stoppage wins and her only losses coming by decision. She is extremely durable and has fought an incredibly-high level of competition in her career. Pennington lands at a higher rate and is more capable of finishing a fight. It’s surprising she is the underdog in this matchup, and considering she should be favored, she makes a nice underdog pick at a cheap salary.
Pick: Pennington
Featherweight bout: Artem Lobov ($10,800) vs. Chris Avila ($8,600)
Lobov is 0-2 in his UFC career and does not appear to be someone who should be fighting at the highest level of the sport. In fact in his pro career, he actually has a losing record at 11-12-1, with three of those losses coming via stoppage, and it looks like the only reason he’s on the UFC roster is because of his friendship with Conor McGregor. Avila is a training part of Nate Diaz and is making his UFC debut in this bout. He has won his last three fights on the regional circuit by stoppage and his two career losses were by decision. Avila also sports a nice seven-inch reach advantage in this fight. Lobov is simply not UFC-caliber and even though Avila has not fought in the UFC yet, he should be favored in this fight over a weak fighter in Lobov, and at an underdog price, he makes a very solid pick.
Pick: Avila
Women’s strawweight bout: Cortney Casey ($9,800) vs. Randa Markos ($9,600)
Casey is 1-2 so far in the UFC and has been involved in some exciting fights, the most recent being a KO win over Cristina Stanciu. She thrown a high output of strikes and typically lands at a high rate, and although all of her wins have come by stoppage, I’m not sold on her as a finisher as the opponents she has stopped have been very weak. Markos is 2-2 in the UFC and all four of her fights have gone the distance, although she has been fighting a high level of competition for the most part. She typically stands and trades with her opponents but does have an underrated wrestling game to fall back on. Based on the style matchup, this fight looks like one that will go the full three rounds, and it should be a close fight on the scorecards. I believe Markos is a better fighter and will walk away with the decision, but considering how few women’s strawweight fights end in a stoppage, this looks like a good fight to avoid.
Pick: Markos
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Welterweight bout: Neil Magny ($10,500) vs. Lorenz Larkin ($8,900)
Magny is one of the hottest fighters in the welterweight division, having won 10 of his last 11 fights including a recent TKO win over Hector Lombard. Magny has an incredibly-long reach and he improves every time we see him fight, making him one of the most dangerous fighters at 170 right now. Larkin, on the other hand, moved down to welterweight last year and has since gone 3-1 with a pair of knockout wins and a big win over Jorge Masvidal in his last fight. Larkin does have heavier hands, but Magny has the advantages in reach, cardio, and on the ground. It wouldn’t be completely shocking if Larkin knocked out Magny, whose chin has been cracked in the past, but overall Magny looks to have most of the key advantages in this fight and looks to be the correct pick here. However, there’s a good chance if Magny wins this fight it will be by decision based on the matchup, and at the price, you’d have to be confident he gets a stoppage win to play him at this salary.
Pick: Magny
Welterweight bout: Colby Covington ($11,300) vs. Max Griffin ($8,100)
Covington is a wrestler who is 4-1 in the UFC with three finishes, all coming by way of submission. He is excellent at getting his opponents to the floor and beating them up until they submit. At 29, Covington is in his prime. However, he has shown some flaws in his UFC career thus far, namely his submission defense, as he was tapped out by Warlley Alves in his only loss. Griffin is making his UFC debut on the heels of two-straight knockout wins on the regional circuit, including one over UFC veteran David Mitchell. He is extremely durable and has never been stopped as a pro, with both of his career losses coming by split decision. This is basically a striker vs. grappler matchup and generally you have to lean towards the grappler in that kind of matchup, especially one as talented as Covington. That being said, he’s one of the highest-priced fighters on this card and is going against a guy with legitimate knockout power in Griffin. I lean towards Covington for the pick just because of the wrestling, but Griffin is a wildcard with his KO power and seven-inch reach advantage, and I don’t recommend picking Covington here, as if he wins it’s likely going to be a decision and you can’t pay this kind of a price for a decision win.
Pick: Covington
Middleweight bout: Alberto Uda ($10,600) vs. Marvin Vettori ($8,800)
Uda won eight of his nine fights by finish on the Brazilian regional circuit and there were high hopes for his UFC debut, but he was absolutely destroyed by a lower-tier middleweight in Jake Collier in his last outing, which was his UFC debut. His striking defense looked very poor in that fight and considering it didn’t happen too long ago, it’s hard to say if he’s had enough time to improve that aspect of his game. Vettori has won nine of his 10 pro fights by stoppage and his only two career losses were by decision. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak with his most recent win coming in Venator FC to UFC vet Igor Araujo. Vettori is nearly 10 years younger, hasn’t taken as much damage, and has much more upside. He’s also a southpaw, which should help him here. Considering how bad Uda looked in his UFC debut and considering Vettori has some solid potential in the sport, he looks like a solid pick here as an underdog.
Pick: Vettori
Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Chris Avila ($8,600)
Casey/Markos
Covington/Griffin
Now that you know who to draft, here’s how to win this weekend:
1. Sign up for a free DraftKings account
2. Select a team of 5 fighters
3. Watch on Saturday night as you move up the leaderboard live
4. Click here to draft your team in this week’s $5,000 free fantasy MMA contest (no deposit required!)
Which round? Via KO, TKO, sub or decision? Does Nate Diaz secure another early round sub or does “Mystic Mac” McGregor dish up the shock and awe with a vicious comeback win?
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If you have not already heard of fantasy MMA – you’ve surely heard of fantasy football. Same concept here folks, but it’s strikes, takedowns and early round finishes you want in lieu of touchdowns, rushed yards and pass completions.
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to build a kickass roster of fighters.
From 10-12 bouts to choose from at each week’s Fight Night, players build a team of five picks, where it’s not just the win that matters. Once the card begins, your team of 5 fighters gain points by accruing significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, advances, and reversals/sweeps. Oh, and finishes are GOLD: Earn a bonus every time your fighter finishes their opponent, with more bonus points the earlier in the fight the finish comes. With 24 fighters to choose from, you’re looking for a value pick and a hidden underdog to distinguish your team from the rest.
To get your team going, you could go study some film or poke around the Sherdog.com Fight Finder, but we’ve done the dirty work for you, breaking down each and every one of the fights on the card -- providing top picks of the night and which fights you’re likely better off avoiding. Got to decide between Johnson, Teixeira, Cerrone or Story? … Let’s go!
Want to play? Join this week’s $5,000 free contest before it’s too late.
Welterweight bout (five rounds): Conor McGregor ($10,400) vs. Nate Diaz ($9,200)
The first fight between these two rivals took place just five months ago in March, with Diaz emerging with a second-round submission victory as a massive underdog in a fight he took on short notice. McGregor badly wanted a rematch, and the UFC decided to run this one back. If it’s anything like the first fight, it should be an amazing fight for the fans to watch. In the first fight, McGregor did well early on, landing strikes and cutting Diaz open, but he wasn’t able to wobble Diaz and as the fight went on, he began to fatigue. Diaz, with his incredible cardio, took advantage of McGregor tiring, hurting him on the feet with his boxing and then tapping him out on the ground. Although I did pick McGregor in the first fight, after seeing that fight I have a hard time picking him in this rematch. It was very obvious in that fight McGregor’s knockout power at featherweight didn’t translate well to welterweight and I doubt five months of training is going to make much of a difference. McGregor probably won’t gas as quickly this time, but he’ll never have the cardio of Diaz, and although McGregor does have more KO power, Diaz has incredible boxing in his own right, and he has the grappling advantage if this fight does hit the ground. Diaz finished McGregor just a few months ago and even if McGregor makes adjustments, I see no reason why Diaz can’t do it again. I still think McGregor is an amazing fighter, but he should not be fighting bigger men at welterweight. I’m going with Diaz here, I think he finishes McGregor again and then potentially gets a lightweight title fight against Eddie Alvarez.
Pick: Diaz
Light heavyweight bout: Anthony Johnson ($10,700) vs. Glover Teixeira ($8,700)
Johnson has emerged as a serious threat since coming back to the UFC as a light heavyweight, going 5-1 overall with four knockout wins and his only loss coming to the champion Daniel Cormier. Johnson has some of them most brutal one-punch knockout power in the game today and he’s proven that with his wins over Alexander Gustafsson, Ryan Bader, Jimi Manuwa and Antonio Rogerio Nogueria. Still, his ground game isn’t the greatest, and that could come into play here against Teixeira. The Brazilian is 8-2 in the UFC with seven stoppage wins and is currently riding a three-fight win streak with all of those wins coming by way of stoppage, including a massive knockout win over Johnson’s training partner Rashad Evans his last time out. In his career, Teixeira has earned finishes in 22 of his 25 career victories, and he’s proven to be incredibly durable, having only been stopped once in 29 career fights, a knockout loss in his MMA debut 14 years ago. Although Johnson is an incredible fighter with scary knockout power, Teixeira is the more well-rounded fighter and if he can implement his grappling game he has a chance of pulling off the upset. There are always some underdogs who surprise on every card, and although it’s hard to go against Johnson, I feel like at this price there is some underdog value on Teixeira, and I’m going to pick him for the upset to get a submission win and potentially the next light heavyweight title shot against Cormier.
Pick: Teixeira
Welterweight bout: Donald Cerrone ($10,000) vs. Rick Story ($9,400)
Cerrone has won 10 of his last 11 fights and has looked incredible since moving up to welterweight, stopping Patrick Cote and Alex Oliveira in two incredible performances. Cerrone has an amazing muay Thai game to go along with a slick submission game and underrated wrestling, making him one of the most well-rounded fighters currently at 170lbs. And with 22 of his 30 career wins coming by way of finish, it’s certainly fair to call him a true finisher in the sport. Story has long been an underrated member of the UFC welterweight division and he’s currently riding a three-fight win streak. In fact, if two split decision losses went his way like most thought, he would be on a seven-fight win streak. Basically, he’s quite good. The thing about this fight that is most interesting is the durability of both men, as Cerrone has only been stopped three times in 38 fights while Story has only lost by submission once in 27 fights and he’s never been knocked out. Although Cerrone has looked great at welterweight, Story has as well, and he’s been doing it at this weight class for a much longer time. Although it’s hard to find flaws in either fighter, one flaw Cerrone has is his susceptibility to body attacks, something Story excels at. If Story can get Cerrone up against the fence and beat him up, he can get the upset win. It’s hard to bet against either man right now, and although I am going to pick Story, he’s not someone I’m looking at for my team as I see this fight going the distance.
Pick: Story
Don’t forget to join this week’s contest for your chance to win big. Click here to draft now.
Welterweight bout: Hyun Gyu Lim ($11,100) vs. Mike Perry ($8,300)
Lim is 3-2 in the UFC with three knockout wins and his only losses coming to top-ranked Neil Magny and Tarec Saffiedine. He is massive for the welterweight division and blessed with a long reach which he uses to maximum potential with devastating attacks from all of his, ahem, limbs. Perry took this fight on extremely short notice and although he is undefeated in his career with all six of his wins coming by way of knockout, fighting Lim on short notice in his UFC debut seems like a daunting task. Perry is a wildcard with his power, and he is the younger fighter in this matchup, but Lim is an excellent striker and has been fighting high-level fighters in the UFC for a while now. His long layoff is a concern, but overall I like him in this matchup and see him winning by knockout.
Pick: Lim
Welterweight bout: Tim Means ($10,900) vs. Sabah Homasi ($8,500)
Means has looked exceptional since moving up to welterweight, going 5-2 in the UFC with three finishes and his lone losses coming to Matt Brown and Neil Magny, who are both top-ranked fighters in the division. Means has some of the best striking in the division and has legitimate knockout power, making him a threat against anyone who decides to stand and trade with him. In his career, he has won 21 of his 25 victories by stoppage. His takedown defense has looked solid at 170, but in the past his wrestling has proven a weakness, although it might not come into play in this fight against another striker in Homasi, who has won three-fights in a row by way of stoppage. He looks like a very solid prospect but he has not fought a high level of competition. He is also taking this fight on short notice and against a dangerous opponent like Means that could spell trouble. Homasi will win some fights in the UFC, but this is too much for his debut. Looks for Means and Homasi to stand and trade, with Means emerging as the winner via knockout, probably early in the fight.
Pick: Means
Bantamweight bout: Cody Garbrandt ($10,300) vs. Takeya Mizugaki ($9,100)
Garbrandt is one of the top prospects in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He’s so far 4-0 in the UFC with three stoppage wins, including a massive knockout victory over Thomas Almeida his last time out. In his undefeated career, he’s won eight of nine victories by stoppage and with his heavy hands has the potential to knock out anyone in the division. At only 25, he’s still getting better and better every time we see him. He is facing a stern test here in the form of Mizugaki, who has over 30 fights in his career, including an 8-4 record in the UFC. Mizugaki is more of a decision fighter who blankets opponents with his wrestling and beats them up with a solid boxing attack, but he lacks stopping power and his chin has been cracked in the past. Mizugaki is capable of playing spoiler if he can get his wrestling going, but it’s more likely Garbrandt finds his chin and knocks him out, and the youngster looks like a good pick here at the price.
Pick: Garbrandt
Women’s bantamweight bout: Elizabeth Phillips ($10,200) vs. Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Phillips is 1-2 in the UFC with all three of her fights going the distance and with her only win coming over Jessamyn Duke. She hasn’t fought in over a year and while she might have improved since then, she certainly did not look like anything special the last time we saw her. Pennington is 4-2 in the UFC with two stoppage wins and her only losses coming by decision. She is extremely durable and has fought an incredibly-high level of competition in her career. Pennington lands at a higher rate and is more capable of finishing a fight. It’s surprising she is the underdog in this matchup, and considering she should be favored, she makes a nice underdog pick at a cheap salary.
Pick: Pennington
Featherweight bout: Artem Lobov ($10,800) vs. Chris Avila ($8,600)
Lobov is 0-2 in his UFC career and does not appear to be someone who should be fighting at the highest level of the sport. In fact in his pro career, he actually has a losing record at 11-12-1, with three of those losses coming via stoppage, and it looks like the only reason he’s on the UFC roster is because of his friendship with Conor McGregor. Avila is a training part of Nate Diaz and is making his UFC debut in this bout. He has won his last three fights on the regional circuit by stoppage and his two career losses were by decision. Avila also sports a nice seven-inch reach advantage in this fight. Lobov is simply not UFC-caliber and even though Avila has not fought in the UFC yet, he should be favored in this fight over a weak fighter in Lobov, and at an underdog price, he makes a very solid pick.
Pick: Avila
Women’s strawweight bout: Cortney Casey ($9,800) vs. Randa Markos ($9,600)
Casey is 1-2 so far in the UFC and has been involved in some exciting fights, the most recent being a KO win over Cristina Stanciu. She thrown a high output of strikes and typically lands at a high rate, and although all of her wins have come by stoppage, I’m not sold on her as a finisher as the opponents she has stopped have been very weak. Markos is 2-2 in the UFC and all four of her fights have gone the distance, although she has been fighting a high level of competition for the most part. She typically stands and trades with her opponents but does have an underrated wrestling game to fall back on. Based on the style matchup, this fight looks like one that will go the full three rounds, and it should be a close fight on the scorecards. I believe Markos is a better fighter and will walk away with the decision, but considering how few women’s strawweight fights end in a stoppage, this looks like a good fight to avoid.
Pick: Markos
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Welterweight bout: Neil Magny ($10,500) vs. Lorenz Larkin ($8,900)
Magny is one of the hottest fighters in the welterweight division, having won 10 of his last 11 fights including a recent TKO win over Hector Lombard. Magny has an incredibly-long reach and he improves every time we see him fight, making him one of the most dangerous fighters at 170 right now. Larkin, on the other hand, moved down to welterweight last year and has since gone 3-1 with a pair of knockout wins and a big win over Jorge Masvidal in his last fight. Larkin does have heavier hands, but Magny has the advantages in reach, cardio, and on the ground. It wouldn’t be completely shocking if Larkin knocked out Magny, whose chin has been cracked in the past, but overall Magny looks to have most of the key advantages in this fight and looks to be the correct pick here. However, there’s a good chance if Magny wins this fight it will be by decision based on the matchup, and at the price, you’d have to be confident he gets a stoppage win to play him at this salary.
Pick: Magny
Welterweight bout: Colby Covington ($11,300) vs. Max Griffin ($8,100)
Covington is a wrestler who is 4-1 in the UFC with three finishes, all coming by way of submission. He is excellent at getting his opponents to the floor and beating them up until they submit. At 29, Covington is in his prime. However, he has shown some flaws in his UFC career thus far, namely his submission defense, as he was tapped out by Warlley Alves in his only loss. Griffin is making his UFC debut on the heels of two-straight knockout wins on the regional circuit, including one over UFC veteran David Mitchell. He is extremely durable and has never been stopped as a pro, with both of his career losses coming by split decision. This is basically a striker vs. grappler matchup and generally you have to lean towards the grappler in that kind of matchup, especially one as talented as Covington. That being said, he’s one of the highest-priced fighters on this card and is going against a guy with legitimate knockout power in Griffin. I lean towards Covington for the pick just because of the wrestling, but Griffin is a wildcard with his KO power and seven-inch reach advantage, and I don’t recommend picking Covington here, as if he wins it’s likely going to be a decision and you can’t pay this kind of a price for a decision win.
Pick: Covington
Middleweight bout: Alberto Uda ($10,600) vs. Marvin Vettori ($8,800)
Uda won eight of his nine fights by finish on the Brazilian regional circuit and there were high hopes for his UFC debut, but he was absolutely destroyed by a lower-tier middleweight in Jake Collier in his last outing, which was his UFC debut. His striking defense looked very poor in that fight and considering it didn’t happen too long ago, it’s hard to say if he’s had enough time to improve that aspect of his game. Vettori has won nine of his 10 pro fights by stoppage and his only two career losses were by decision. He’s currently riding a five-fight win streak with his most recent win coming in Venator FC to UFC vet Igor Araujo. Vettori is nearly 10 years younger, hasn’t taken as much damage, and has much more upside. He’s also a southpaw, which should help him here. Considering how bad Uda looked in his UFC debut and considering Vettori has some solid potential in the sport, he looks like a solid pick here as an underdog.
Pick: Vettori
Best Picks
Tim Means ($10,900)Raquel Pennington ($9,200)
Chris Avila ($8,600)
Fights to Avoid
Cerrone/StoryCasey/Markos
Covington/Griffin
Now that you know who to draft, here’s how to win this weekend:
1. Sign up for a free DraftKings account
2. Select a team of 5 fighters
3. Watch on Saturday night as you move up the leaderboard live
4. Click here to draft your team in this week’s $5,000 free fantasy MMA contest (no deposit required!)
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