Boxing: Mayweather’s Risk-Reward Conundrum

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For most fighters, generating 925,000 pay-per-view buys would be a glowing achievement. However, as sports fans have found over the last five years, Floyd Mayweather Jr. is no ordinary fighter. He is this generation’s best and arguably one of the greatest of all-time.

Getting 925,000 PPV buys, as was reported by Yahoo Sports, for his Sept. 13 rematch with Marcos Maidana at the MGM Grand Garden in Las Vegas is nice bump from the 900,000 the original fight garnered in May, but it is not exactly a Mayweather-type figure.

In fact, in the four fights Mayweather has fought on the six-fight, Showtime-CBS deal, only one has exceeded the magic million figure, and that was Mayweather’s September 2013 domination over Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, which drew 2.2 million buys and set a record in revenue. Mayweather’s first fight on the deal, against Robert “The Ghost” Guerrero, was believed to have accrued 840,000 buys. That, by Mayweather standards, was embarrassing.

The waning PPV numbers may show it is time for Mayweather to take a greater risk. At 37, his reflexes may have slowed, somewhat, making him almost possible to hit, and narrowed his virtuoso skills to within those of today’s elite.

There is no doubting Mayweather is still the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and a sure-fire, first-ballot unanimous hall of famer. He is also so much better than the field of fighters before him that his fights hardly garner the kind of crossover attention he craves -- and needs. As noted by Yahoo Sports and a number of other sources, PPV numbers are down across the board. The Manny Pacquiao-Tom Bradley rematch in April did not reach 800,000 buys, according to numerous sources, and the Miguel Cotto-Sergio Martinez figures fell “well below expectations,” according to Yahoo Sports.

It leaves Mayweather (47-0, 26 KOs) in a bit of quandary. Who does the buying public want to him in with next? The faint clamor, deflating by the minute, is still for a Mayweather-Pacquiao showdown, which is at least five years beyond its sell-by date. It is a fight that carries crossover appeal, especially to non-hardcore boxing fans -- because most fans know Mayweather would easily beat the aging Filipino star. However, it is also weighted with tons of entanglements.

Mayweather is locked into two more fights for Showtime, most probably scheduled for May and September 2015. Pacquiao (56-5-2, 38 KOs) is committed to HBO and Top Rank until after 2016, after Mayweather’s Showtime deal is over. In 2016, Mayweather will be 39 and Pacquiao a road-worn 37, both well into their downside. Mayweather-Pacquiao likely appears out, unless Showtime and HBO can come to the same agreement on which the cable giants collaborated in 2002, when Showtime’s Mike Tyson and HBO’s Lennox Lewis fought in Memphis, Tenn.

That leaves Mayweather with few options. There is a possibility of a fight with Amir Khan, but the English star has two looming losses, which Mayweather pointed out, that were never rectified. What’s more, there is the question of whether or not he can sell in the United States. Some hardcore fans would be interested, but for crossover movement, expect Mayweather’s PPV numbers to dip even more. Rising young stars Keith Thurman (23-0, 21 KOs) and Danny Garcia (29-0, 17 KOs) are deserving of a Mayweather payday, but can either pose any real threat of beating Mayweather at their stage? Probably not -- so what can Mayweather really do?

For one, the incentive would be there in attempting to make more history with a rematch against current world middleweight champion Miguel Cotto, who Mayweather beat in May 2012. It is risky because of the size difference. A Mayweather victory would mark major titles in six weight classes, covering junior lightweight to middleweight.

Another possibility that would break all world PPV records would be a showdown with the baddest puncher in the sport, 32-year-old WBA middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin (30-0, 27 KOs), a major reach, considering Golovkin is contracted to HBO and Mayweather is still with Showtime. Still, would that not be the kind of crossover fight that the two cable giants could agree to make, if Mayweather would be willing to take the risk? It is an outside-the-box thought, though it makes some sense when you consider Golovkin is nearly 5-foot-11 with a 70-inch reach and Mayweather is 5-foot-8 with a 72-inch reach and still-incredible quickness.

It may be the only option left for Mayweather, who is simply too good for that which is in front of him, if he plans on making an emphatic mark on his legacy.