Beating the Books: UFC on ESPN 2

The ’dogs were barking on Saturday in Philadelphia, as UFC on ESPN 2 resulted in a number of upsets at the Wells Fargo Center. In fact, seven underdogs notched victories on the 13-fight card, and they provide the material for this installment of Beating the Books.

Justin Gaethje (+100)

The UFC on ESPN 2 main event was one of the most anticipated lightweight fights in recent memory, as Gaethje met former Ring of Combat champion Edson Barboza in a striker-versus-striker showdown. For the first two minutes of the fight, fans were treated to a leg kick battle between the two 155-pound warriors. However, Gaethje decided to make it a brawl and landed a vicious right hook right on Barboza’s chin, knocking out the Brazilian midway through the first round for the most significant victory of his career. Gaethje, who improved to 3-2 in the UFC, earned his sixth post-fight bonus and cashed as a +100 underdog.

Josh Emmett (+130)

Michael Johnson appeared to be cruising and well on his way to a decision over Emmett in their featherweight showcase. However, Emmett pulled off an incredible comeback and landed a brutal overhand right that knocked “The Ultimate Fighter 12” finalist unconscious in the third round. Considering that Emmett was in action for the first time in more than a year, it was quite a performance and one that showed off his one-punch power. The odds on Emmett winning the fight were +130.

Michelle Waterson (+140)

In a women’s strawweight feature, Waterson outstruck and outgrappled Karolina Kowalkiewicz to announce herself as a legitimate title contender at 115 pounds. It was arguably Waterson’s most complete performance in the Ultimate Fighting Championship to date, and she called for a title shot following her unanimous decision victory. Waterson cashed as a +140 underdog.

Paul Craig (+160)

Perhaps the most surprising finish to come out of UFC on ESPN 2 belonged to Craig, who came back late in the third round to finish Kennedy Nzechukwu with a triangle choke. Much like his encounter with Magomed Ankalaev a little more than a year ago, Craig was down on the scorecards before stealing victory in the dying seconds of the fight with his second Hail Mary submission win in the UFC. Craig was a +160 underdog.

Kevin Aguilar (+105)

Aguilar posted his ninth straight victory and snapped Enrique Barzola’s four-fight winning streak with a clear unanimous decision in their featherweight prelim. Aguilar beat Barzola to the punch for a majority of the fight, as he moved to 2-0 inside the Octagon. Aguilar closed as a +105 underdog.

Casey Kenney (+190)

Despite taking the fight on just one week’s notice, Kenney made a successful UFC debut with a spirited unanimous decision over Ray Borg. Kenney, a two-division champion in the Legacy Fighting Alliance, advanced to more dominant positions on the mat. In the judges’ minds, his efforts were worth more points than Borg’s takedowns, leading to Kenney securing the nod on the scorecards. Kenney cashed as a +190 underdog.

Maryna Moroz (+145)

Moroz’s move to the flyweight division could not have gone any better, as she took a unanimous decision from UFC newcomer Sabina Mazo. Moroz was more effective in the striking and the grappling departments, spoiling the undefeated prospect’s promotional debut with perhaps her best performance since she submitted Joanne Calderwood in April 2015. Moto’s closed as a +145 underdog.

Adam Martin is a mixed martial arts journalist who has been covering the sport since 2011. He is currently the lead odds analyst for Sherdog.com, as well as the lead staff writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Adam is also the co-host of “The Parting Shot Podcast” on iTunes. His favorite fight of all-time is Dan Henderson-Mauricio Rua, and he wishes Pride Fighting Championships never died. Adam is based out of Toronto, and he is a graduate of the University of Toronto and Centennial College. Get in touch with him on Twitter at @MMAdamMartin.