A Closer Look: PBC ‘Thurman vs. Collazo’

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The venerable Friday Night Fights programming gets its replacement, as Premier Boxing Champions on Saturday makes its first appearance on ESPN with an intriguing headlining bout between veteran Luis Collazo and the rising Keith Thurman. The circumstances favor Thurman, a native of Florida and more specifically the Tampa area. The event will be held right in his backyard, at the USF Sun Dome. It is a safe bet that the crowd will be behind the local boy for his first fight at home in almost six years.

Thurman is one of the hottest up-and-comers in the welterweight division and perhaps the entire sport. His trip up the ladder has been slow and methodical, with slight increases in competition on each rung to prepare him for elite opponents. He took a hard-fought but clear decision from former Floyd Mayweather Jr. challenger Robert Guerrero in March and fought smart in a 12-round victory over Leonard Bundu in his first fight back from a shoulder injury.

Collazo was once pegged as the next big thing in his own right, but contentious losses to Ricky Hatton and Andre Berto and wide drubbings at the hands of Shane Mosley and more recently Amir Khan have put a stop to any such talk. He is a perfectly credible opponent, despite the fact that the books have Thurman as high as a 50-to-1 favorite. Here is a closer look at their matchup:

KEITH THURMAN (25-0, 1 NC; 21 KOs)

Thurman is simultaneously a smooth, thoughtful, intelligent boxer who can bank rounds and an enormous puncher with the ability to finish the fight at any moment. That is a potent combination, particularly so when married to the diverse and consistently improving technical arsenal he wields. Ringcraft is a substantial strength, and it is rare to see him get stuck against the ropes for more than a split second; and while he rarely looks to pressure himself, when he does press his opponent back, he wastes no time in unloading combinations against a vulnerable foe.

The key to that ringcraft is crisp lateral and in-and-out movement. Thurman is not exceptionally light on his feet, but he is nonetheless quite fast and athletic, and he accentuates that quickness by occasionally stepping forward and back from orthodox into southpaw or dropping a darting lead right as he angles off. Against left-handed fighters, he pays close attention to keeping his lead foot outside his opponent’s and makes excellent use of the outside angle to open up his bombing right hand.

Thurman throws the right mainly as a straight but will sneak it in as a short hook or overhand and occasionally as an uppercut. He has a distinct habit of lever-punching with the right, doubling or even tripling it up and mixing up his rhythm and location. A dedicated body puncher, especially in the early rounds, Thurman will land the right hand to the torso early and often. He keeps the left hook mainly as a headhunting tool and gets a bit wild with it from time to time, but it is still a devastating shot.

The only real problem with Thurman’s game at this point is his somewhat inconsistent defense. He tends to rely quite a bit on angles and distance to avoid shots, and he has a bad habit of leaping in with a combination and simply stopping in front of his opponent with his hands lowered and his head still. As the fight goes on and Thurman gets his rhythm and timing, however, this happens less frequently, which opens up his crisp and potent counterpunching game in the pocket. He keeps a steady, consistent punch output throughout the fight, never working at a blistering pace but never lapsing into inactivity.

LUIS COLLAZO (36-6; 19 KO)

While the commentary team will surely overuse the phrase to the point of meaninglessness, Collazo is a crafty, durable, veteran with a deep well of boxing skill that his sneaky power complements. A southpaw, Collazo works behind a crisp and consistent jab that is at its most effective when he fights from a crab or low right hand type of stance. It is a versatile punch, as he uses it to lead, measure, cover his retreat as he steps backward and, most importantly, to set up his power shots.

The double jab-straight left is Collazo’s bread and butter, and he mixes up the left hand equally to the head and the body. There is no telegraphing to the straight, and he fires it off with a quick release if not a tremendous amount of power. The right hook is Collazo’s money punch, and his continuous jab and low lead hand serve to disguise it. He is particularly fond of throwing it as a check hook as he angles out, and it carries substantial force.

The rest of Collazo’s game ranges between solid and plus. He is often there to be hit, but his consistent head movement and tucked chin make it more difficult than you might expect to catch him cleanly. His footwork and movement are good, and when he can get his pressure game going, he does good work against the ropes. His pace is no better than average, however, and he can be outworked on volume.

THE FINAL VERDICT

The -5000 betting line on Thurman indicates that this is set up to be a showcase matchup, but that does not necessarily mean that it will be an easy victory for the Floridian. Collazo is crafty, durable and difficult to crack cleanly, even for a puncher as big as Thurman. This matchup demands that Thurman employ his boxing skills, though that does not preclude an eventual knockout. I think that is exactly what will happen here. Collazo will show well early, landing a few straight lefts and right hooks as the two men jockey for position and Thurman finds his timing, rhythm and distance while dropping consistent body shots and banking rounds. By the middle of the fight, I expect Thurman’s youth, speed and sheer power to take their toll, and while it would not be surprising for Collazo to make it to the final bell, that scenario strikes me as less likely than a finish. Thurman wins by knockout in the eighth round.

Follow Sherdog.com lead analyst Patrick Wyman on Twitter.