Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rothwell vs. Dos Santos’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

***

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

***

BEST VALUE: Ben Rothwell at +113. Essentially, this main event is a pick ’em fight. Who wins depends greatly on how far Junior dos Santos has truly fallen and how high Rothwell has truly risen. Given Rothwell’s deceptive craft, durability and power -- plus the fact that dos Santos’ confidence has almost certainly never been lower than it is now -- “Big Ben” at underdog odds is worth a few bucks.

LIVE DOG: Timothy Johnson at +145. Marcin Tybura is one of the few real heavyweight prospects out there, but matchmaker Joe Silva has given him a raw deal for his UFC debut. Johnson’s style is not pretty, but it is very effective and plays to his natural strengths. Johnson is strong, massive and a capable wrestler. Tybura’s wrestling needs improvement, and he is not particularly happy to exchange. I believe this is Johnson’s fight to lose, so these odds are pretty sweet.

SURE THING: Bojan Velickovic. There are a few tempting picks on this card, but none of them possess Velickovic’s general inexorability. “Serbian Steel” has been hurt in the past, and he has been outstruck. He has been caught in submissions, and he has been taken down. Through grit, craft and weird wiry strength, however, Velickovic has consistently managed to come out on top. Against a smaller, less skilled opponent, he is an easy pick.

CAN’T MISS: Damir Hadzovic vs. Mairbek Taisumov. Hadzovic matches technical striking and deadly timing with crazy aggression. Taisumov blends together strikes like few fighters in all of MMA, and he hits like a tank. It pains me to see “The Bosnian Bomber” tossed into the deep end so quickly, but this is a guaranteed barnburner. Do not miss this fight.

SMOKE BREAK: Cyril Asker vs. Jared Cannonier. On a card littered with heavyweights, the UFC chose this matchup alone for the early prelims. Cannonier has yet to prove himself in the UFC, and Asker is a so-so opponent. Given the iffy nature of heavyweight MMA, in general, you could definitely stand to DVR this one and skip right through if it ends up being a dud.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.