Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hunt vs. Mir’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: Johnny Case. He is as low as -105 on some books and -115 at the highest. That is an implied probability of just about 50 percent, and he is far more likely than that to win his bout. Jake Matthews has great potential -- and we cannot overlook the possibility that he has greatly improved since his last appearance -- but Case has put on four solid, consistent performances in the UFC so far and simply has too many options for Matthews to handle.

LIVE DOG: Steve Bosse. Yes, I know my Bosse pick probably seems weird, and I do not exactly feel good about it. However, James Te Huna has looked extremely unimpressive since his loss to Glover Teixeira and was showing signs of decline before then. If Te Huna’s chin really is gone, then Bosse has more than enough power and technical acumen to test it.

SURE THING: Antonio Carlos Jr. UFC matchmaker Joe Silva certainly did not have Kelly’s best interests in mind when he set up this one. Carlos has been making rapid improvements, and I expect him to absolutely dwarf Kelly in the cage in Australia. Fittingly, he is a favorite to the tune of -500.

CAN’T MISS: Bec Rawlings vs. Seo Hee Ham. Neither “Hamderlei Silva” nor Rawlings has had a dull bout so far in the UFC, and their styles match up well. Rawlings will come forward, Ham will counter and a few brawls will break out in the course of things. Plus, the Aussie crowd will go nuts every time Rawlings comes close to landing a shot. It should be fun.

SMOKE BREAK: Richard Walsh vs. Viscardi Andrade. Both of these men have been in fun fights, but they have been in some ugly ones, too. Chances are high that at the very least this one will start out slow and take a while to get going. Time it so that the pizza delivery guy arrives just when this bout starts and you will be golden.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.