Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hendricks vs. Thompson’
Specialty Selections
Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:
***
Legend
BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.
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LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.
SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is
predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was
always going to win, does the victor still have free will?
SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.
***
BEST VALUE: Sean Spencer. He has been out for some time with injury, and that has made it too easy to forget that he is a very good, well-rounded fighter. A Golden Gloves boxing champion, Spencer has the kind of combination punching that has always troubled Pyle and the elusive takedown defense to keep the fight in that realm. Even if Pyle really shows up, Spencer’s timing and accuracy make it entirely likely that he will go down at some point in the fight, increasing Spencer’s chances of winning at least two of the three rounds. Spencer currently sits at a neat -165.
LIVE DOG: Rafael Cavalcante. There are a lot of tempting underdogs on this card, including Stephen Thompson, Alex Nicholson, Derrick Lewis and Mike Jackson. However, “Feijao” strikes the best balance between winning potential and betting value, situated as he is at +315. The last time Cavalcante faced a fighter similar to Ovince St. Preux was his 2011 victory over Yoel Romero. Like “OSP,” Romero was fast, powerful and unpredictable. Even so, “Feijao” weathered the hail of wild punches and scored a devastating knockout. I would not count on him doing the same to St. Preux, but it is a distinct possibility; and “OSP” is not exactly a paragon of reliability himself.
SURE THING: Noad Lahat. Diego Rivas is tough, but he is nowhere near as skilled as Lahat in any phase. Lahat is the more accurate, more active striker; he is the better, more unpredictable wrestler; and he is worlds beyond Rivas on the ground. However this fight plays out, it is very difficult to see Lahat losing. His line is not as favorable as Spencer’s, but -325 is not all that bad considering. Lahat might be worth a few bucks.
CAN’T MISS: Ray Borg vs. Justin Scoggins. I was tempted to pick Alex White vs. Artem Lobov, because that fight is guaranteed to be a knock-down-drag-out brawl or your money back, but Borg and Scoggins are far, far more technical and no less willing to exchange. Both Borg and Scoggins are transitional masters, and even though I predicted that Borg would do his best to lock down Scoggins, there will be no shortage of wild scrambles and nip-tuck exchanges in this fight.
SMOKE BREAK: Derrick Lewis vs. Damian Grabowski. With Lewis, you can never count out the possibility of a crushing knockout. That alone might compel you to watch this fight, but the other, likelier outcome is a slow, grinding clinch fest that may or may not end in a weird submission. I am not saying this fight is without its oddball appeal, but you can never count on mid-tier heavyweights to deliver satisfying action.
Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.
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