Neil Magny has rattled off seven straight wins. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Welterweights
Demian Maia (20-6, 14-6 UFC) vs. Neil Magny (15-3, 8-2 UFC): Magny looks to extend his winning streak to eight fights against the venerable Maia. The American has run off seven wins in a row, most recently taking out Hyun Gyu Lim in May, while Maia has won two straight since dropping a pair of fights to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald. Magny has blossomed into a promising and highly skilled young fighter who makes great use of his height and reach. He works behind a long jab and snappy right hand, throws sharp knees and hits slick takedowns in the clinch and maintains a heavy base on top. Maia remains one of the best grapplers in the sport’s history. His technical chain wrestling is perennially underrated, and once he gets on top, it is impossible to shake him off. This is a tough fight to call: Magny’s takedown defense can be cracked, and he has been submitted before. On the other hand, Magny has great cardio and pushes a hellacious pace, which has been a real problem for Maia of late. I think Magny’s youth, offensive output and consistent learning curve will be the difference here. The pick is Magny by decision.
Light Heavyweights
Patrick Cummins (7-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. Rafael Cavalcante (12-5, 1-2 UFC): Cummins meets “Feijao” in a wrestler-versus-striker matchup. The former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, Cavalcante has fallen on hard times, dropping to 1-2 in the UFC with a one-sided loss to Ryan Bader in his last outing. Cummins was on a nice run but ran face-first into an Ovince St. Preux punch back in April. The Brazilian is mostly a striker and a crushingly powerful one with huge pop in his hands, kicks and knees. His takedown defense is generally good enough to keep him standing. Cummins was an outstanding amateur wrestler, and that remains the core of his game. He does a good job of setting up his entries with strikes and times reactive shots well, and when he gets on top, he is very difficult to shake off. Cummins has exactly the skills to do what Bader did to Cavalcante, who looked downright bad in his last fight. The pick is Cummins by decision.
Welterweights
Warlley Alves (8-0, 2-0 UFC) vs. Nordine Taleb (11-2, 3-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3” winner Alves takes on transplanted Frenchman and Firas Zahabi student Taleb in an under-the-radar but intriguing welterweight scrap. Alves dominated Marcio Alexandre to win the show but was gifted a contentious decision in his return engagement against Alan Jouban. Taleb appeared on two different seasons of “The Ultimate Fighter” before finally catching on and has won three straight. The Brazilian, a protégé of Ronaldo Souza, is an exceptional athlete with great speed, power and explosiveness. He complements those physical gifts with slick takedowns, venomous submissions and a potent but low-output striking game. Taleb is enormous and well-rounded, with solid kickboxing, great work in the clinch and a functional grappling game. The Frenchman is a steady, competent fighter and has a good chance at grinding this out, but Alves is remarkably dynamic and can finish the fight on the feet or on the ground. The pick is Alves by submission in the second round.
Bantamweights
Iuri Alcantara (31-6, 6-3 UFC) vs. Leandro Issa (13-4, 2-1 UFC): Brazilians Issa and Alcantara meet in an excellent bantamweight clash. Neither is a full-time resident of Brazil, with Alcantara training under Greg Jackson in New Mexico and Issa at Evolve MMA in Singapore. Alcantara was badly upset by the unknown Frankie Saenz in December, the loss snapping his three-fight winning streak, while Issa has won two in a row. The Singapore-based Issa is an elite grappler with a clean, technical ground game, vicious kicks on the feet and a wrestling game based more on enthusiasm than skill. Alcantara is well-rounded, with fight-finishing power on the feet and slick submissions on the mat, but he works at a slow pace and might be past his physical prime. This will be a slight upset, but I think Issa will be able to repeatedly get Alcantara to the mat and grind him out. The pick is Issa by decision.
Middleweights
Vitor Miranda (10-4, 1-1 UFC) vs. Clint Hester (11-4, 4-1 UFC): Strikers Miranda and Hester meet in a fun middleweight battle. Hester had strung together four consecutive wins after his time on “The Ultimate Fighter 17,” but he was knocked out by the resurgent Robert Whittaker in November. Miranda was a finalist on Season 3 of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil,” losing to Antonio Carlos Jr., but he knocked out Jake Collier with a head kick in December to get back on track. Hester was a professional boxer, and his game relies mostly on his hands along with the occasional change-of-pace takedown. He is a potent power puncher with a crushing jab and left hook, but he gets a bit wild and can be hittable. Miranda is a former kickboxer himself and has a tight, technical game at range, but his takedown defense is lacking and he does not throw much volume. Miranda is the cleaner technician, but Hester has the power edge, produces more offense and can mix in takedowns. The pick is Hester by decision.
Bantamweights
Hugo Viana (8-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. Guido Cannetti (6-2, 0-1 UFC): Brazil’s Viana draws Argentina’s Cannetti in an entertaining curtain-jerker. Viana, a veteran of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil,” dropped his last fight to uber-prospect Aljamain Sterling. Cannetti was on “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” and lost at UFC 180 to Enrique Briones. Viana is a talented athlete with a brawling sensibility and power in his hands. Cannetti is mostly a kickboxer, and the southpaw carries a lot of pop in his left kick. The Brazilian should have substantial advantages in wrestling, grappling and power on the feet. The pick is Viana by decision.