Ed Herman has secured 13 of his 21 victories by submission. | Photo: D. Mandel/Sherdog.com
Middleweights
Ed Herman (21-10, 7-7 UFC) vs. Rafael Natal (17-5-1, 5-3-1 UFC): What he lacks in quickness and athleticism, Herman makes up for in tenacity. “The Ultimate Fighter 3” finalist does his best work in the clinch and from top position, but he does struggle with more explosive strikers and grapplers. Natal returns for the first time since being knocked out by Tim Kennedy at UFC “Fight for the Troops 3” in November. The Brazilian has a heavy top game, as well as serviceable standup. This could come down to who is able to impose his will in the clinch. Natal wins by decision or submission.Flyweights
Kyoji Horiguchi (12-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Darrell Montague (13-3, 0-1 UFC): A former 132-pound Shooto champion, Horiguchi drops to flyweight for his second Octagon appearance after earning a bantamweight triumph over Dustin Pague at UFC 166. The 23-year-old Krazy Bee representative is an intriguing prospect and appears to be better suited to making the transition from Japan than some of his counterparts. Montague, meanwhile, received a rude welcome to the promotion, losing to John Dodson via first-round knockout on the same card. There are no easy outs at flyweight, but Horiguchi has the look of a rising talent, and his frame is better suited for this division than bantamweight. Horiguchi takes it by decision.Welterweights
Yan Cabral (11-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Zak Cummings (16-3, 1-0 UFC): Cummings, who has won six of his last seven fights, had a matchup with Alberto Mina pulled from the UFC Fight Night “Kim vs. Hathaway” bill because he was going to come in eight pounds overweight. With that in mind, he could be in danger of being released with a loss. A Nova Uniao product, Cabral looked every bit the part of the dangerous grappler in outmaneuvering David Mitchell in his promotional debut. Considering that was his first bout in two years, the Brazilian can only improve on his performance. Cabral wins by submission.Bantamweights
Eddie Wineland (21-9-1, 3-3 UFC) vs. Johnny Eduardo (26-9, 1-1 UFC): Just two bouts removed from a title shot against Renan Barao at UFC 165, Wineland is curiously buried on the prelims against an opponent who has not fought since May 2012. It is a high-risk, low-reward situation for Wineland, whose three defeats in the past three years have come at the hands of Barao, Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. Eduardo is a decent striker, particularly with leg kicks, but eventually he will succumb to his opponent’s punching power. Wineland takes it by KO or TKO in round two.Featherweights
Nik Lentz (24-6-2, 8-3-1) vs. Manny Gamburyan (13-7, 4-5 UFC): Lentz’s unbeaten run at 145 pounds came to an end at the hands of Chad Mendes at UFC on Fox 9. Faced with an opponent that he could not grind down through his wrestling, Lentz simply lacked the firepower to get the job done on the feet. While not as formidable as Mendes, Gamburyan will be difficult to overpower in tie-ups due to his judo base. Still, look for overall activity and pace to work in Lentz’s favor as he takes a narrow decision.Welterweights
Albert Tumenov (12-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Lapsley (23-6, 0-1 UFC): Tumenov had his moments in his promotional debut against Ildemar Alcantara but ultimately was not able to get the better of his Brazilian foe standing or on the mat. Lapsley, meanwhile, was unable to thwart the top game of Jason High in a unanimous decision loss at UFC 167. While Tumenov has more potential, Lapsley has the skill set to test the Russian’s biggest weakness: his ground game. Tumenov wins by decision or TKO.Lightweights
Justin Salas (11-5, 2-2 UFC) vs. Ben Wall (7-1-1, 0-1 UFC): Both fighters are coming off abbreviated appearances: Salas tapped to a Thiago Tavares rear-naked choke 2:38 into round one in November, while Wall was pounded out by Alex Garcia in 43 seconds in December. Give Salas, a former wrestler at the University of Wyoming, the edge on the assumption that he will be better able to dictate the location of the fight. Salas takes it by decision.***
TRACKING TRISTEN
2014 Record: 90-52-1Career Record: 357-210-2
Last Event (UFC 172): 6-4
Best Event (UFC Fight Night 40): 7-0
Worst Event (UFC Fight Night 39): 1-9-1