Preview: UFC on ESPN 5 ‘Covington vs. Lawler’

Welterweights

Salim Touahri (10-3, -130) vs. Mickey Gall (5-2, +110): Even if he flames out as a prospect, it is impressive that Gall got this far, as he seemingly fooled the Ultimate Fighting Championship into matching Phil Brooks with an actual prospect simply by being the first person to ask for that fight while UFC President Dana White was in attendance. Gall has some grappling skill, but he has not gotten much of a chance to develop while on the roster: After his initial run of fights against “CM Punk” and Sage Northcutt, he has suffered long stretches of inactivity. His striking does look improved, but it is still not particularly good, and Gall is still not all that reliable in terms of finding a way to implement his submission skills, as he is not a particularly strong wrestler against vast swaths of the UFC roster. The New Jersey native gets a home game here against Poland’s Touahri, a jack of all trades master of none-type who has looked decent in two UFC bouts. He was physically overmatched against Warlley Alves in his debut but easily could have gotten a decision nod over Keita Nakamura in December. This is probably the limit of where Gall’s sheer aggression in search of a submission can take him, as without some improvement since his last fight, Touahri will probably be strong enough to fight him off -- if Gall even gets inside on Touahri to begin with. Until Gall makes the leap, the pick is Touahri via decision.

Women’s Flyweights

Antonina Shevchenko (7-1, -145) vs. Lucie Pudilova (8-4, +125): The UFC’s booking of Pudilova-Liz Carmouche in Prague in February remains a baffling decision. Pudilova had some momentum after a three-round war against Irene Aldana and was the lone Czech representative on the card, but the UFC saw fit to throw her in a bout where she got grinded out for an uninteresting decision loss. It was a waste of Pudilova, who has made her name by fighting like a maniac despite a lack of athletic skills. She gets an interesting dance partner here in Shevchenko, the older sister of the current UFC women’s flyweight champion. As a pure kickboxer, there is a case that Shevchenko might be a bit better at dictating range and landing strikes, but she lacks a lot of the physicality and ancillary skills that make her sister great, particularly in the wrestling and grappling departments. That was enough for Roxanne Modafferi to steal a decision through grappling exchanges, but that should not be much of a concern here against a relentless striker like Pudilova. Hopefully, Pudilova forces a fun fight, as her lack of defense should give Shevchenko all the confidence she needs to throw counters at will. As far as the result, Shevchenko could get hit some but in general should be quick enough to attack with precision as Pudilova attempts to chase her down. The pick is Shevchenko via decision.

Flyweights

Matt Schnell (13-4, -115) vs. Jordan Espinosa (14-5, -105): The flyweight division lives, and that is particularly good news for Espinosa, who saw his division essentially get shut down in between his signing on Season 2 of Dana White’s Contender Series and his UFC debut against Eric Shelton in March. Espinosa is a solid talent who can do a bit of everything, but as an athlete who favors power and hunting for the finish over pacing himself, some cardio issues might doom him as he works his way higher up the ladder. He takes on Schnell, who was one of the few signees off of the UFC’s all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter” a few years back, mostly thanks to his willingness to accept a late-notice bantamweight bout against Rob Font. Schnell came into the UFC as an aggressive and dynamic finisher but learned to tamp things down after it turned out that he has a particularly poor chin for the division. He has been able to develop a more patient range striking game, however, though he rediscovered a bit of his aggressive self in his last win -- a blistering sprint against Louis Smolka. If Schnell survives the first round, that is a good sign that he can coast to a decision, but Espinosa figures to connect with his chin at least once, which is probably one more shot than Schnell can take. The pick is Espinosa via first-round knockout.

Women’s Flyweights

Mara Romero Borella (12-5, -165) vs. Lauren Murphy (10-4, +145): When the UFC announced “The Ultimate Fighter” cast that would fight to be the company’s first women’s flyweight champion, Murphy was surprisingly the only converted UFC bantamweight of the bunch and one of the few familiar names. That made her run on the show particularly disappointing, as she was knocked out in the first round by a then-unknown Nicco Montano. Murphy is a perfectly fine fighter thanks to her durability and willingness to keep charging forward, but her lack of athleticism gives her some clear limitations and her fights tend to hinge on whether she can reliably find comfort in the clinch. She will look for a win here against Italy's Borella, who has been a pleasant surprise relative to expectations as the 125-pound weight class has gotten off the ground. Borella is flawed in that she is not particularly quick, but thus far, that has only hurt her in a frustrating loss to Katlyn Chookagian; otherwise, she has been able to successfully make her fights a grind. This could be a grinding affair, but Borella should be the stronger fighter and able to hit the harder shots during the time this fight is not spent in the clinch, even if her low output prevents her from putting too much of an imprint in terms of winning rounds. The pick is for Borella to win the decision.

Welterweights

Claudio Henrique da Silva (13-1, -410) vs. Cole Williams (11-1, +330): Silva has one of the odder careers in recent memory. After a successful start to his UFC campaign that included a 2014 win over current contender Leon Edwards, “Hannibal” vanished for three and a half years due to a cascade of injuries, returning in 2018 and picking up right where he left off, as he scored two more wins in his last two bouts. It would have been interesting to see how Silva’s crashing grappling style would work against slow-paced Russian grinder Ramazan Emeev, but with Emeev out due to visa issues, Silva takes on a late replacement in Williams. Iowa’s Williams is probably best known for a run to the semifinals of Bellator MMA’s lone season of “Fight Master,” and frankly, he has not accomplished much since, as he returned to the Midwestern scene to beat a weak slate of opponents with long spates of inactivity. Williams has some tools, but his performance appears to vary wildly dependent on his shape, though as far as this fight is concerned, it should mostly be a barometer of how long Williams manages to survive. Silva should be able to stay aggressive and keep Williams in trouble without much to worry about. The pick is Silva via second-round submission.

Women’s Flyweights

Hannah Goldy (2-0, -165) vs. Miranda Granger (4-0, +145): The first week of the current season of Dana White’s Contender Series was quite controversial due to the UFC president refusing to offer Brendan Loughnane a contract. However, everyone agreed that Goldy was a talented prospect with some promise but needed some more seasoning to hang at the UFC level. Naturally, she makes her debut six weeks later in order to make up for some fights that have fallen off of the card. Goldy is a powerful athlete and a solid striker, but she gets a tough test in Granger, a fellow undefeated newcomer who is riding a string of quick submission finishes around the West Coast scene. Granger has some legitimate grappling talent, but most of her finishes seem dependent on either her opponent’s mistakes or her own athletic advantages. Goldy is certainly the stronger fighter, and while she may make a mistake on which Granger can capitalize, she also looks quite capable of picking Granger apart on the feet and keeping herself out of danger. The pick is Goldy via decision.