Preview: UFC on ESPN 20

feria de KOs! Tome Breese apaga las luces de su rival con un jab! #UFCFightIsland5 #InAbuDhabi @visitabudhabi pic.twitter.com/XTr5eU0rdT

— ufcespanol (@UFCEspanol) October 10, 2020

Middleweights

NR | Tom Breese (12-2, 5-2 UFC) vs. No. 13 | Omari Akhmedov (20-5-1, 8-4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Breese (-155), Akhmedov (+135)

This is a weird fight, as it is somewhat defined by each man’s path to defeat rather than his path to victory. Breese’s disheartening performance against Brendan Allen still looms large when colored by his issues outside of the cage. While a win over K.B. Bhullar was a nice reminder of how good Breese looks when everything clicks, the Englishman still needs to prove he can stage a comeback if things go sideways in the early going. As such, the question involves exactly how much danger Akhmedov presents. The first round is certainly where Akhmedov is at his strongest, but for all the power that the Russian throws, the finishes have dried up for him since facing a better level of competition. While Akhmedov usually comes out guns blazing in the first few minutes of his fights, a recent loss to Chris Weidman could cause him to try and pace himself further, which would be the absolutely wrong approach to take against Breese. If Akhmedov does not finish this early, does this become Breese’s fight to lose? It has been years since Breese has put on any sort of extended performance, but his combination of size and technical acumen should be enough to pick apart an increasingly tired Akhmedov on the feet and likely outwrestle him, as well. This is just a strange fight where each man has the potential to put on either an excellent performance that exorcises some demons or suffer a completely disheartening loss. In the end, Breese’s issues seem like the more damaging at the moment. While Akhmedov has not been much of a finisher lately, the bet is that he can lay it on enough early to get Breese mentally careening off the rails. The pick is Akhmedov via first-round stoppage. * * *

Bantamweights

NR | Ricky Simon (16-3, 4-2 UFC) vs. NR | Gaetano Pirrello (15-5-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Simon (-380), Pirrello (+315)

It is good to see Simon back in the cage, given that his fights are always entertaining. Simon has some decent skills, particularly with his wrestling and grappling, but everything is powered by a reckless amount of aggression that can hurt him as often as it helps. That definitely derailed his 2019 campaign, which saw him charge right into a knockout punch from Urijah Faber and get pieced up by Rob Font, but Simon righted the ship in 2020 with a win over Ray Borg that gives him some momentum heading into 2021. Multiple attempts to book Simon against Brian Kelleher fell apart for various reasons, and with Kelleher out of this slot, Simon now faces a late replacement and UFC newcomer in Pirrello. Belgium’s Pirrello should make this a fun one, given that he is an aggressive striker, but his lack of takedown and submission defense should cost him in this spot. Simon’s lack of defensive mindfulness gives any opponent who hits hard a chance at a win—and Pirrello certainly qualifies—but as soon as he closes the distance and gets his arms around the Octagon rookie, this should be one-way traffic. The pick is Simon via first-round submission.

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Flyweights

NR | Su Mudaerji (13-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. NR | Zarrukh Adashev (3-2, 0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Mudaerji (-420), Adashev (+335)

The UFC has added some interesting talent out of China over the last few years, and Mudaerji certainly carries some promise. Frankly, that was not the case earlier on in the career of “The Tibetan Eagle,” who did not face a particularly strong slate of competition leading up to his promotional debut and looked overwhelmed in a one-sided loss to Louis Smolka. However, Mudaerji has looked much more impressive and gotten to show off his wares in the two fights since. He is at his best as a bouncy range striker, and Andre Soukhamthath gave him the time and the space to coast to a dominant win. While there was some concern that Mudaerji’s reedy frame would be weaker with his planned move to flyweight, his 125-pound debut saw him blast Malcolm Gordon in just 44 seconds. There are still questions about how he handles things against an opponent who can effectively close distance and prolong some grappling exchanges, but it does not seem likely that Adashev will be that opponent. Born in Uzbekistan and fighting out of New York, Adashev comes from a striking background and has some impressive weapons, but his constant aggression often means he is consenting to whatever fight his opponent wants and trying to score a finish from there. Adashev has some power and some decent offensive wrestling, so it would not be a total shock if he can pull this off, but he is also at a massive size disadvantage that means Mudaerji is likely to tee off on him at will. The pick is Mudaerji via second-round stoppage.

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Middleweights

NR | Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. NR | Markus Perez (12-4, 2-4 UFC)

ODDS: Lungiambula (-130), Perez (+110)

After his slated middleweight debut in December got pushed back due to his opponent’s issues with COVID-19, Lungiambula makes it to 185 pounds here, and it will be interesting to see how he looks. During his rise through the South African scene and in his two UFC bouts to date, Lungiambula’s success has been all about his physicality. Lungiambula is a ball of muscle, and while his judo background occasionally allows him to control a fight, his bouts usually hinge on his ability to close distance and shock his opponent with a knockout blow. It is difficult to tell exactly where Lungiambula stands on the UFC roster at the moment. His debut bout against Dequan Townsend was a stylistic layup, while his sophomore effort against Magomed Ankalaev seemed like an impossible task, so he has yet to receive the type of benchmark bout to gauge how much success he will have going forward. That might happen here against Brazil’s Perez, who has his own set of concerns, some of which are his own doing. The best part of Perez’s game is his grappling and submission acumen—he earned his UFC shot with a submission win over Ian Heinisch that continues to impress—but getting there is an adventure, as “Maluko” would rather spend time as an aggressive brawler, which just served to get him knocked out in his last fight against Dricus Du Plessis. Perez could just win this based on 15 minutes of aggression and volume, but the Brazilian’s fights often see him wind up crashing into his opponent in one manner or another. That is likely to benefit Lungiambula, owing to his physical strength and knockout power. This may be a mess, but the pick is Lungiambula via second-round knockout.

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Flyweights

NR | Francisco Figueiredo (11-3-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. NR | Jerome Rivera (10-3, 0-1 UFC)

ODDS: Figueiredo (-145), Rivera (+125)

Another Figueiredo has made his way to the Octagon, as the reigning 125-pound champion’s brother enters the UFC’s flyweight fray. Figueiredo is a fine enough talent, but like most lesser siblings throughout MMA history, there is a distinct lack of what makes his brother great. Figueiredo adopts a similar striking style to his older brother, focused around patience and counters, but he simply does not have the accuracy or power behind his punches to be anywhere near as effective in single moments. That comparable lack of athleticism particularly comes through in the grappling department, where Figueiredo mostly looks to control and lock down his opponents. Figueiredo has been a career bantamweight, so it will be interesting to see if his athleticism pops more down at 125 pounds, though he will be facing a large flyweight in his debut. Rivera showed some potential but did not earn a contract after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series in August, but he was still signed as a late replacement about a month later for a fight against Tyson Nam. That was where Rivera’s inexperience cost him. While the New Mexican has a well-rounded and aggressive game, there is not much concern for what his opponent is throwing back—a trait that got him knocked out by Nam. Figueiredo does not seem to present nearly as much danger in single strikes, so Rivera should be able to win this on pace and volume. While Figueiredo can win some fights in the UFC, he does not have the athletic gifts that his brother uses to be effective with what essentially is not a round-winning style. The pick is Rivera via decision.

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Lightweights

NR | Mike Davis (8-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. NR | Mason Jones (10-0, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Davis (-175), Jones (+155)

Davis is an interesting talent, but he has yet to gain much momentum under the UFC banner. “Beast Boy” is a solid athlete who can do a little bit of everything, but he had the bad fortune to get matched with Sodiq Yusuff on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018. The ensuing bout was one of the best of the season, but Davis fell short against what turned out to be a blue-chip prospect. The fight did at least get Davis on the UFC’s radar, and he wound up making his promotional debut less than a year later, albeit under less-than-perfect circumstances. Davis stepped in on late notice to face Gilbert Burns and put on a game effort in what never truly seemed like a winnable fight. Thankfully, Davis was given a bit of a showcase win over Thomas Gifford in his next fight, but he has now spent over a year on the shelf due to injuries. Given that Davis looks like a prospect who needs experience more than anything else, that has made for a disappointing career trajectory thus far. Jones is an interesting next test, as the Welshman enters the Octagon after holding two divisional titles in the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship organization. “The Dragon” does not have a style that pops off the page, as he just tends to plod forward with power boxing before taking things to the clinch, but the results speak for themselves, as Jones seems to have some sneaky knockout power that has helped put away opponents. Jones could find a finish, but Davis’ struggles—at least in the short term—seem to be against better athletes with more technical depth of skill; Jones is neither. This should be a solid benchmarking fight for both men and could be one of the better bouts on the card. The pick is Davis via decision.

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Bantamweights

NR | Umar Nurmagomedov (12-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. NR | Sergey Morozov (16-4, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-500), Morozov (+400)

Bantamweight is already stating its case as the UFC’s most loaded division, and here come two more promotional newcomers ready to make an impact. Nurmagomedov’s last name comes with some heavy expectations, but he has lived up to them thus far. The cousin of lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, he is a capable wrestler and grappler, but he is at his most comfortable on the feet, setting a distance while rifling some quick strikes at his opponent. If anything, Nurmagomedov can be too comfortable, willing to coast to an easy win rather than turn up the pressure and score a quick victory. Nurmagomedov looks destined to rise through the bantamweight ranks in short order, so it will be interesting to see what happens when he faces better competition that can throw him off his game. There is an outside chance that could happen here against Morozov, as the Kazakh fighter is a prospect to watch in his own right. Morozov is a striker with some knockout power, though he does seem to have to warm up a bit and feel out his opponents if he cannot immediately take them out of the fight. That should let Nurmagomedov settle into a groove, though Morozov could provide some danger later in the bout. The pick is Nurmagomedov via decision.

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Women’s Flyweights

NR | Manon Fiorot (5-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. NR | Victoria Leonardo (8-2, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Fiorot (-185), Leonardo (+160)

Leonardo’s win on Dana White’s Contender Series in November was a pleasant surprise. Most of the steam was on her opponent, Chelsea Hackett, but Leonardo’s pressuring style smothered the Australian prospect on route to a second-round stoppage. Leonardo earned a contract for her efforts and makes her proper UFC debut here against Fiorot. The French newcomer has some interesting aspects to her game, typically preferring to keep her opponent at range with long, sometimes wild strikes. She looks to have some power and enough physical strength to control her fights, but it is hard to tell at this point how much of that is her level of competition versus her natural gifts. This bout should answer a lot of questions in that regard, since Leonardo is by far the most physically imposing and consistently aggressive opponent of Fiorot’s career. Fiorot has shown a decent amount of grappling skill, however, so there is some hope that she can hold her own there; and if this becomes a striking match, Leonardo is both aggressive and hittable enough that the Frenchwoman should be able to take the win. The pick is for Fiorot to show enough to have her type of fight and take the decision.