Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Pettis vs. Moreno’

Middleweights

Bradley Scott (11-4) vs. Jack Hermansson (15-3): Headlining the prelims are two mid-tier middleweights with accurate and technically sound striking complemented by sneaky wrestling and submission grappling. This is an interesting and strange fight, and the fact that both men sort of have two first names is just icing on the unconventional cake. Scott has been trading wins and losses since his UFC debut in 2012. Those who beat him tend to be quicker and more technical on the feet and skilled enough inside to thwart his size in the clinch. Despite the difference in UFC experience, both Scott and Hermansson have fought Scott Askham. Both managed to inflict about 80 strikes on the gangly Englishman, but Hermansson outlanded him, whereas Scott hurt Askham in the first round and then struggled to control him for the rest of the fight. Hermansson is Askham’s size -- two inches shorter but with arms two inches longer -- but he likes to push a faster pace, and he is significantly harder to hit (65 percent strike defense versus 52 percent). Against this combination of speed, technique, reach and volume, Scott will certainly put up a fight, but Hermansson is expected to outwork him on the feet. Scott is likely the more powerful fighter. If he hits an early takedown, then he may be able to neutralize Hermansson the way Cezar Ferreira did, but part of Ferreira’s strategy was to avoid striking exchanges -- a style of fight with which Scott is totally unfamiliar. The pick is Hermansson by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Dustin Ortiz (16-7) vs. Hector Sandoval (14-3): As far as Team Alpha Male fighters go, Sandoval is something of a throwback. While he lacks the more thoughtful striking emphasized by former coach Duane Ludwig, Sandoval is a plus athlete, and the power in his hands makes him a threat in any position from which he has an opportunity to throw punches. Sandoval is also a capable scrambler, like all Alpha Male products. Thus far, however, his wins have come against untested competition. Excellent athletes with well-developed games -- like Ulysses Gomez, Willie Gates and Wilson Reis -- have been Sandoval’s foil throughout his career. Ortiz is not as dangerous as any of those men. He has gotten the finish in just 10 of his 26 fights, with only one finish in the UFC. Nonetheless, he is a great athlete. Ortiz is powerful and quick, and he uses his physical advantages to press a wrestle-boxing game on his opponents. Ortiz will be one of the best scramblers Sandoval has ever faced, and while that style of fight will give the Team Alpha Male rep openings, he is unlikely to find the finish against a man who has only ever been finished by one of the men in the main event. The pick is Ortiz by third-round TKO.

Bantamweights

Enrique Briones (16-6-1) vs. Rani Yahya (23-9): After barely surviving the punches of current champion Cody Garbrandt in his second UFC fight, Briones was unlucky enough to suffer a knockout at the heavy hands of Douglas Silva de Andrade in his next fight. Yahya is no less accomplished -- in fact, the Brazilian’s overall resume is easily one of the best at this weight -- but as a submission grappler without a single knockout win to his name, he is nothing like the last two men to beat Briones. Not unlike another veteran fighter with world class jiu-jitsu, Yahya is a relentless wrestler. Sometimes he has to shoot three or four times before he can complete one, but in the end, he averages 3.15 takedowns per fight, dragging his opponents to the ground through a combination of smart technique -- he chains together several attempts while maintaining tight control -- and good old-fashioned doggedness. Briones could be in trouble in this respect: FightMetric has his takedown defense at just 44 percent. While the men who have taken down Briones in the UFC have been better athletes than Yahya, the Brazilian has an effective style all his own. Briones’ best shot is to take out Yahya on the feet, but only Norifumi Yamamoto and Joseph Benavidez -- two powerful men -- have ever managed to knock him out. The pick is Yahya by unanimous decision.

Bantamweights

Jose Alberto Quinonez (5-2) vs. Diego Rivas (7-0): Rivas has been out of the Octagon since his February 2016 win over Noad Lahat, though if his Instagram is to be believed, the Chilean “Pitbull” has been busy training ever since, spending some time for this camp at Team Oyama in Irvine, California. Defensively, Rivas is quite good on the ground, but the first round of his fight with Lahat looked a lot like Rory MacDonald’s first round against Demian Maia. While Lahat is a very good submission grappler, it is a little easier to praise someone’s defense when it is Maia on top of them. Had Rivas not found the knockout in Round 2, nothing in the first five minutes suggested he would be able to get up if Lahat found another takedown. That is some cause for concern against Quinonez, who hits an average of 4.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and has developed enough craft on the feet that his speed and agility make him a threat everywhere. Quinonez uses a lot of movement, slinging varied strikes comfortably from both stances. Rivas is dangerous and defensively sound on the mat, but it is Quinonez who seems to fight with more process, every move governed by his desire to set up the finish. He is a little wild on the feet still, but he is tough, determined and improving quickly. Quinonez by second-round submission is the pick.

Flyweights

Joseph Morales (8-0) vs. Roberto Sanchez (7-0): Though it could be seen as a little cruel that the UFC is putting so much new and untested talent on a Mexico City card, it is good to see the promotion continuing to invest in the future of the flyweight division; and it must be said that no weight class is better suited to thin air and smog than the quick, high-energy flyweights. A 22-year-old prospect, Morales seems built for an attritive kind of fight. He took the Global Knockout title over five rounds in November, beating another solid young fighter in Josh Paiva to do it. Sanchez has never seen the fourth round of a fight, but he has earned two third-round finishes in his career. Both men should be able to handle the environment and put on a great fight. Sanchez is a little more reckless, though both men are quite aggressive. This difference comes through in the wrestling exchanges, as Sanchez is much easier to take down, whereas Morales is usually the one scoring the takedowns. Morales uses his punches to enter into the clinch, whereas Sanchez is a little more freestyle, following the fight wherever it goes and counting on his strength and power to carry him through. I like the process of Morales in this fight, so he is the pick by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Jordan Rinaldi (12-5) vs. Alvaro Herrera (9-4): Herrera is a good scrambler. When there is space and a position has not been secured, he is explosive and uses good instincts to bounce back to his feet. When tied up or held in place, the technical gaps in Herrera’s grappling start to show. Herrera also throws so much power into his techniques and uses so much energy defending takedowns that he tends to tire himself out. For a submission specialist like Rinaldi, that is the surest path to victory. Rinaldi has failed to beat similar fighters in the past. Strong athletes like James Moontrasri and Abel Trujillo have used their power and dynamic talents to stuff Rinaldi’s takedowns. Herrera could do the same thing, but Rinaldi has only been knocked out once, and with his more pedestrian style, he is much better suited to long fights. In his last six fights, Rinaldi has won two three-round decisions and scored three submissions in the second or third rounds. Herrera is dangerous, but if he does not put away Rinaldi early, he will likely slow down to such a degree that the American can drag him to the ground and find the win. The pick is Rinaldi by third-round submission.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.