Francisco Trinaldo has seven first-round finishes on his resume. | Photo: Gleidson Venga/Sherdog.com
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Francisco Trinaldo (15-4, 5-3 UFC) vs. Akbarh Arreola (23-8-1, 1-1 UFC): Two veteran competitors go to work in the preliminary card’s main event. Arreola is one of the pioneers of Mexican MMA and has split his two UFC outings, most recently retiring Yves Edwards in November. Trinaldo has consistently lost to the division’s upper crust but is riding a win over Leandro Silva. The Mexican fighter can do a bit of everything, with a particularly nice kicking game and technical grappling on the floor. Trinaldo’s game revolves around his explosiveness and power, with a slick left kick and right hook from his southpaw stance. I think the Brazilian is on another level physically, and the pop in his strikes should be the difference. The pick is Trinaldo by knockout in the second round.
Edmilson Souza (15-3, 2-0 UFC) vs. Katsunori Kikuno (22-6-2, 2-1 UFC): This is an interesting and fun matchup between two fighters who like to throw down on the feet. Souza is almost exclusively a puncher who relies on a gorgeous right hand that he throws at different speeds, targets and angles, and he is at his best stringing together that right hand and a left hook in the pocket. Kikuno is an unorthodox striker with a karate background and is at his best working counterpunching combinations and a devastating front kick to the body. Both fighters are hittable and like to work at a quick pace, so this should be a barnburner, but I favor the Brazilian’s volume and proven power. The pick is Souza by close decision.
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Drew Dober (15-6, 1-2 UFC) vs. Leandro Silva (17-2-1, 1-2 UFC): Dober got his first UFC win against the venerable Jamie Varner back in December and draws Silva, who beat Charlie Brenneman in November. Dober is a straightforward and pretty solid sprawl-and-brawler with a high-output arsenal of punch-kick combinations from his southpaw stance and good clinch work in tight. Silva is not a great athlete, but he is highly skilled and well-rounded. He particularly excels as a wrestler and top-control artist and has a nice array of submissions, but he can also crack a bit with punching combinations. The American should be able to stuff Silva’s takedowns, avoid the ground and beat him up at range. The pick is Dober by decision.
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Leonardo Mafra Texeira (11-2, 0-2 UFC) vs. Cain Carrizosa (6-1, 0-1 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” Season 1 competitor Texeira drops to lightweight after a short-notice loss to Rick Story and draws Carrizosa. Texeira is an aggressive striker in the Chute Boxe mold, with a predilection for powerful punch-kick combinations and an excellent clinch game inside, but he struggles to defend takedowns. Carrizosa is a good grappler and is exceptionally aggressive but lacks much in the way of striking and wrestling acumen. Unless the weight cut terribly drains the Brazilian, I like his volume and power here. Texeira by knockout in the second round is the pick.
LIGHTWEIGHTS
Christos Giagos (10-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Jorge Antonio Cezario de Oliveira (7-1, 0-1 UFC): While light on name value, this profiles as an excellent fight. Oliveira is a striker by trade with a wealth of experience in boxing and kickboxing, and his crisp jab and punching combinations make him a handful on the feet. Giagos is a physical specimen with outstanding athleticism who can do a bit of everything, with authoritative takedowns, slick punch-kick combinations and a preference for the flying knee. If this becomes a pure striking matchup, Oliveira has a good shot, but I think Giagos will mix in his takedowns and top control. The pick is Giagos by wide decision.
FLYWEIGHTS
Bentley Syler (5-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Freddy Serrano (1-0, 0-0 UFC): Two “The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America” bantamweights drop to their natural flyweight division. Serrano was a bronze medalist in freestyle wrestling at the 2007 Pan American games and represented Colombia at the 2008 Olympics. He possesses the athleticism and diverse array of powerful wrestling skills we would expect from a fighter with that base, along with powerful punches, but he is raw to say the least. Syler has spent time at Chute Boxe and American Top Team and can do a bit of everything, with finishing skills both on the feet and on the ground. The pick here is Serrano by wrestling-heavy decision.
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