Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lewis vs. Browne’

Welterweights

Nordine Taleb (12-3) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (23-3): Ponzinibbio made his name in the UFC as an action fighter, but recent performances suggest the Argentine is coming into his own as a potential contender. All evidence indicates that at 30 years old and with 10 years of pro MMA under his belt Ponzinibbio is right in the midst of his prime as a combat athlete, and he shone bright in his last bout, a consummate schooling of fellow dark horse Zak Cummings. Ponzinibbio’s pressuring style makes for an interesting contrast with the rangy muay Thai of Taleb, who will do his best to keep this at a safe distance. Where Ponzinibbio displays some beautifully fluid and organic striking, most of Taleb’s techniques look like they come right out of the kickboxing textbook. He employs a sharp jab and, as seen in his knockout of Erick Silva, a deceptively hard right hand, but kicks are his bread and butter. The pressure and angles of Ponzinibbio may have an effect on that aspect of the Tristar Gym rep’s game, but he will need to be wary of Taleb’s sharp counterpunches and subtle defensive skills. This is easily one of the best fights on the card, and whether it turns into a barnburner or a chess match, it should be a pleasure to behold. The pick is Ponzinibbio by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Carla Esparza (11-3) vs. Randa Markos (4-2): It was with a few impressive performances on the 20th season of “The Ultimate Fighter” that a previously unheralded Markos announced herself to the MMA world. Now the Iraqi-born scrapper has an opportunity to settle a little unfinished business in a fight with Esparza, who feuded with Markos on the show before ultimately winning the whole thing -- and the inaugural women’s strawweight championship. Esparza has fought just once per year for the last four years, and one has to wonder how much desire she has to continue competing. Certainly her devastating loss at the hands of current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk sapped some of her confidence, and she looked more than a little rusty in her return performance against Julianna Lima. Since Esparza took the bout on short notice and had just recovered from a shoulder injury, however, she should be expected to look more comfortable this time around. Esparza is known for her wrestling, and her fighting style brings to mind that of an early Frankie Edgar. Her striking is not remarkable on its own, but in combination with her smooth takedowns and sharp eyes, it has served her well. Markos is decidedly less specialized, which is both a boon and a curse. Her well-roundedness makes her a challenge in every phase, but more focused fighters have poked holes in each one of those phases. In a word, Markos’ game is a mile wide and a foot deep, and I expect Esparza to withstand a few crashing waves before ultimately wading through those familiar waters with little difficulty. Esparza by second-round submission is the pick.

Bantamweights

Aiemann Zahabi (6-0) vs Reginaldo Vieira (13-4): The Zahabi name is already well-known in the world of mixed martial arts: Firas Zahabi heads one of the world’s best MMA gyms and has been instrumental in the success of great fighters such as Georges St. Pierre and Rory MacDonald. Now the brilliant trainer’s little brother makes his UFC debut, and this analyst is very excited at the prospect. Zahabi does not seem to possess the next-level athleticism of a GSP, but he is a patient and precise fighter whose record suggests a potent mix of ground and striking skills. The 29-year-old novice has blown through his competition outside of the UFC, finishing every one of his six opponents in the first round. Tristar Gym fighters are known for their excellent conditioning, however, and if Zahabi’s mindset is even half as cerebral as his brother’s, he should have little difficulty in managing his energy should the fight make it past minute five. Vieira is certainly long on experience in comparison, and in combination with his imposing physicality, he represents a serious step up for the young Zahabi. Vieira is a bruiser on the feet and should leave many openings, but his aggressive pursuit of the ground game is a different story. Zahabi seems to employ his brother’s “60-second guard,” staying active and looking for sweeps and submissions whenever he is taken down. So long as he can prevent Vieira from controlling him, he should be able to make a statement in his UFC debut. Zahabi by second-round TKO is the pick.

Middleweights

Jack Marshman (21-5) vs. Thiago Santos (13-5): Marshman is the perfect fit for the UFC’s middleweight division. A durable work horse who pushes a hard pace, he responds well to adversity and throws combinations with bad intentions. Marshman also has some skill on the ground, although he has been too willing to play a patient guard game in the past. Since neither he nor Santos is a great takedown artist, this bout will most likely look like a kickboxing match. Santos has proven to be somewhat of a glass cannon in that phase, but no one can doubt the power in his strikes, especially his thudding, Thai-style round kicks. As far as boxing range is concerned, Marshman is markedly more comfortable and fluid, whereas Santos is prone to squaring up and throwing mechanical, stiff-armed punches. Santos is certainly the better explosive athlete and Marshman has been KO’d three times himself, but as long as the Welshman’s chin holds up, he will keep pressing forward and letting his hands go. A kick-heavy style is particularly vulnerable to forward pressure, and that was precisely what Santos struggled with in his loss to Gegard Mousasi. The pick is Marshman to get it done via TKO in the second round.

Middleweights

Gerald Meerschaert (25-8) vs. Ryan Janes (9-1): Janes ought to have counted himself lucky that Keith Berish, his first UFC opponent, was a relatively flat-footed and powerless striker, because the smaller man had no difficulty finding Janes’ lofty chin. Durability and determination are two of Janes’ best attributes, however, and he has and will rely on them to outwork and exhaust a less-gifted opponent. Janes is also a solid adapter in the Carlos Condit mold, meaning he may need negative reinforcement to change his approach, but he is willing to do so. Pressure could work well against Meerschaert, who is known for his submission skills and not his punching power. Meerschaert is comfortable on the feet, however, and his well-roundedness makes him a difficult threat for the inexperienced fighter. Janes can hang on the ground, but Meerschaert is the more consistent wrestler, which likely means he will be the one controlling the fight. The pick is Meerschaert by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.