Gleison Tibau’s has been one of the UFC’s most prolific lightweights. | Photo: G. Venga/Sherdog.com
Lightweights
Gleison Tibau (33-11) vs Abel Trujillo (12-6): It will be a sad day when Tibau finally leaves the UFC. The quintessential gatekeeper -- and somehow only 32 years old -- Tibau is well-known for grinding his opponent against the cage for two rounds before tiring and giving away the third round. It is a pattern he has repeated many times. He is rarely credited, however, for his constant willingness to change and improve. In recent years, Tibau has added footwork and a sharp left hand to his arsenal, making him a well-rounded opponent, if not a particularly dangerous one. Trujillo, on the other hand, is perpetually dangerous but far more limited. The Blackzilians brawler is extremely powerful with both hands in the pocket, and he has a nasty instinct for clinch fighting. Like a lightweight Leonard Garcia, however, whatever technical improvements Trujillo makes between fights seem to melt away the moment he gets hit, at which point he tosses all discipline aside and slugs it out until his gas tank runs dry. Tibau’s long career and infamous weight cut could make him a prime target for an early flash KO, but I think the Brazilian vet weathers the early storm and drags Trujillo into the deep end. Tibau by unanimous decision is the pick.Lightweights
Yan Cabral (12-1) vs Johnny Case (21-4): One of the most entertaining prospects on a card full of up-and-comers, Case is well-rounded and extremely dangerous, with 18 finishes to his name. Since moving to Alliance MMA, the 26-year-old has adopted what I tend to think of as “the Alliance style,” using lots of movement and long, straight attacks to keep his opponents on the end of his considerable reach. Case’s takedown defense has been a bit lackluster at times, but a killer guillotine and a good instinct for scrambles has carried him to three UFC victories. Make no mistake, however: Cabral is a dangerous test. At 6-foot, the former welterweight will not be much smaller than Case. Cabral uses tenacious clinch wrestling to drag his opponents to the ground, where he is methodical and aggressive, smoothly improving his position until he can sink in his trademark choke, the Nova Uniao arm-triangle. I favor Case, but his penchant for winding up on his back just might spell his doom against Cabral, who has submitted 11 of his 13 opponents. The pick is Case by unanimous decision.Featherweights
Clay Guida (32-15) vs. Thiago Tavares (19-6-1): Guida lost his way for a few years. An extremely dull and aimless fight with Gray Maynard saw the 12-year MMA veteran embark on a bizarre journey of endless feinting, hand clapping and aggressively boring top control. Fortunately, Guida seems to have once again found his footing. After leaving Jackson-Wink MMA for Team Alpha Male in March, Guida dominated Robbie Peralta, ragdolling the tough journeyman for three rounds and reasserting himself as a gatekeeper to the elite. Tavares is a well-rounded grappler himself, but he has always lacked Guida’s fighting instincts, leading him to give up position on the ground and attack recklessly on the feet. As long as Guida can keep Tavares off his back, he should be able to grind out a win. The pick is Guida by unanimous decision.Featherweights
Edimilson Souza (15-3) vs Chas Skelly (14-1): Skelly is remarkably effective. The 30-year-old Team Takedown fighter’s combo of porous defense and clunky offense makes him an awkward striker at best, but he simply refuses to be outstruck. When hurt, Skelly responds by dropping all pretense of defensive responsibility and swinging away at his opponents until they either stop attacking or fall down -- and it usually works. On the ground, he is a highly aggressive submission artist with a nose for scrambles. Quick back-takes, front headlock chokes and a tricky leg lock game make Skelly a threat from any position on the mat. Souza is an out-fighter with an aggressive streak, rarely throwing more than two punches at a time but maintaining a steady output of single shots nonetheless. It helps that he is not only the far more technical striker but more powerful, as well, with an ominous 13 of 15 wins by KO. His preferred weapon is a dynamite straight right, which he will happily throw high and low to keep the opponent off-guard. Boxing is just about all “Kevin” offers, however, as he has a nonexistent kicking game and a very limited ground game should his solid but relatively shallow takedown defense fail him. Souza could put out Skelly’s lights at any moment, but wild, durable and extremely competitive is a tough combination. The pick is Skelly by submission in round three.Welterweights
Viscardi Andrade (17-6) vs Gasan Umalatov (15-4-1): Andrade is an experienced Brazilian jiu-jitsu player who has struggled at times to utilize those skills in MMA while at the same time using a striking style I can only describe as Paulo Thiago-esque. With that being said, Andrade is durable, and his power makes him a real threat even to technically superior opponents: Recall the overhand right with which he nearly flattened Nicholas Musoke last year. Umalatov is an awkward fighter himself, with a very workmanlike approach to fighting. While not a bad technician in any area of the game, Umalatov has often been too patient for his own good. He defends, waits, waits some more and occasionally counters. In his 10 decisions, Umalatov has split the judges’ cards four times. Andrade is coming off a year-and-a-half layoff, so there is reason to doubt his conditioning, but in a battle between “ugly but powerful” and “ugly and often ineffective,” I will take the former every time. Andrade wins by unanimous decision.Bantamweights
Pedro Munhoz (12-1) vs Jimmie Rivera (17-1): This is a fantastic matchup between two blue-chip prospects that is curiously buried on the Fight Pass prelims. Munhoz began his professional career as a submission ace, and while his most recent win over Jerrod Sanders proves his grappling skills are still sharp, he has developed into a dangerous kickboxer under Kings MMA head Rafael Cordeiro. Rivera lacks Munhoz’s hype, but at just 26 years old, the Team Tiger Schulmann product is already turning into an excellent fighter. Despite a slight 22 percent knockout rate, Rivera seems to be finding his power as he matures, earning three of his four knockouts in the last year, culminating in a vicious stoppage win over Marcus Brimage in July. Rivera is also a sneaky adept wrestler with good positional skills on the ground. This will make for an interesting battle of inches, with the pressuring Munhoz vying to overwhelm Rivera, who prefers to pot-shot and counter punch. Ultimately, Munhoz should be able to break Rivera’s rhythm with pressure and exhausting takedown attempts, but Rivera’s tight combinations will punish every mistake he makes at range. The pick is Munhoz by hard-fought submission in round two.Bantamweights
Bruno Rodrigues (4-0) vs Matheus Nicolau Pereira (10-1-1): In his “Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” Season 4 bout with Reginaldo Vieira, Rodrigues threw seven spinning kicks, one flying knee, one lead right uppercut and not a single jab; that tells you everything you need to know about his standup game. Rodrigues also got himself caught in no less than three guillotines over the course of two rounds, the last of which forced him to tap. Like Rodrigues, Pereira is a natural counter fighter, but his more fundamentally sound boxing style makes him the more reliable and adaptable striker. Toss in the Nova Uniao fighter’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and MMA experience, and it becomes hard to envision a Rodrigues win. The pick is Pereira by TKO in round one.Finish Reading » Specialty Selections