Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Gastelum’

Lightweights

Francisco Trinaldo (21-4) vs. Kevin Lee (14-2): At 38 years old, Trinaldo’s brutal brand of explosive kickboxing is more finely tuned than ever, whereas the 24 year-old Lee has yet to completely find his feet. Lee’s best weapons are his takedowns, especially when he catches his opponents’ hips just as they overextend on a strike. Trinaldo, however, does not give many opportunities for this kind of wrestling. He tends to keep a long distance and only throws more than two strikes at a time if his opponent is seriously vulnerable. Lee will have some openings when Trinaldo kicks, but just the same, he may well find himself ducking into the Brazilian’s nasty high kick or one of his smashing knees. If Lee can get and keep Trinaldo down, he should enjoy a distinct grappling advantage. Lee is an aggressive top position player, whereas Trinaldo is rarely more than defensive off of his back. Still, he will be hittable at range and during every attack, and Trinaldo’s wide swings bely the accuracy and timing with which he strikes. Trinaldo should be able to evade the submissions long enough to catch Lee with something mean, but if he gets outlasted or quickly taken down, this could be the unranked Lee’s big break over an opponent just outside the lightweight top 10. The pick is Trinaldo by second-round TKO.

Welterweights

Sergio Moraes (11-2-1) vs. Davi Ramos (6-1): On the feet, Moraes looks like a fighter with little in the way of technical instruction but plenty of valuable experience in hard sparring. In other words, his mechanics need work -- and a few more straight punches alone would be welcome -- but he knows what he is doing. He is especially effective on the counter, where he can land cracking right hands or clean reactive takedowns as the opponent comes forward. Moraes, a multiple-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is more effective on the ground than on the feet, but after a series of training injuries, he has struggled to score takedowns and maintain control on the floor. Interestingly, Moraes is fighting an almost-as-decorated jiu-jitsu fighter who actually has been successfully outgrappling people in the cage, albeit at a lower level. While Ramos lacks Moraes’ awkward, layered kickboxing, he is comfortable throwing bombs and using them to set up his takedowns. Moraes’ experience and craftiness should enable him to survive, but the man only seems to take part in close fights. Eventually one of those will catch up to him. Moraes by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Rani Yahya (23-8) vs. Joe Soto (17-5): Grappling fans rejoice. In this matchup, we have Yahya, one of the most prolific and persistent grappling specialists in the bantamweight division, taking on Soto, a boxer who has never been shy about engaging in wild scrambles and playing a risky guard game. Yahya has a style of grappling that might be called “slow scrambling.” He is happy to be put in momentarily disadvantageous positions if it means the chance to methodically work toward a superior spot. Once Yahya has advanced, he will move through positions of control until the desired submission is available. Soto will certainly have the more technical striking in this fight, but will he be able to maintain an advantage? He is rarely active enough to pressure a fighter like Yahya and none too difficult to take down due to his upright stance and penchant for throwing naked low kicks. On the ground, Soto is aggressive but also more willing to stay on his back and attack rather than sweeping or scrambling to his feet. In any case, Yahya should not have too much trouble taking down Soto down: His takedown defense is rated at only 44 percent, whereas Yahya shoots nine times per 15-minute fight. The pick is Yahya by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Michel Prazeres (21-2) vs. Joshua Burkman (28-14): Prazeres is a treat to watch. He rarely dominates his opposition and he is not a technical marvel, though he might be a better striker than you think. Regardless, he possesses one unfortunately rare quality: killer instinct, or perhaps in this case we should call it “competitive instinct.” Prazeres is a little slow on his feet and he is almost always at a substantial reach disadvantage, but he can attack suddenly and with unexpected speed; and he has power in everything he throws. Rather than outslicking his opponents, Prazeres typically just outdoes them. When he feels himself falling behind or when the opponent stuns the crowd with a big attack, he just goes for it. Whether with a reactive takedown, a much-needed flurry of thudding punches or a Hail Mary submission, Prazeres is a winner by nature. Burkman possesses a far greater library of techniques, and his 17 finishes speak to his own brand of killer instinct. When it comes to competitiveness -- that perfect marriage of killer instinct and fight IQ -- Burkman falls short. He is prone to making strange in-fight decisions, and he tends to take his foot off the gas when the opponent gives him space, as if frozen by his own proliferation of options. Burkman will find the mark early, but Prazeres’ mentality should give him the advantage down the stretch. Prazeres by unanimous decision is the pick.

Featherweights

Rony Mariano Bezerra (14-6) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (9-0): Kennedy made a statement in his UFC debut by overpowering Alessandro Ricci on short notice, despite fighting for the first time as a lightweight. Now back at 145 pounds, Kennedy’s swarming style suggests promise but also risk. Most young fighters experience a “prospect loss” at some point -- a fight in which an older, more experienced fighter exposes them for being too aggressive or reckless or sometimes just not skilled enough yet. From Mirsad Bektic to Sage Northcutt, this happens to nearly every young fighter, and Bezerra is precisely the kind of fighter who tends to hand out those prospect losses. He is wild and undisciplined himself but experienced enough to spot fleeing openings in a younger fighter’s defense. Kennedy does not fight foolishly, but he does rely on an aggressive wrestle-boxing game plan. This could allow him to stifle the dynamic “Jason,” but it also makes him a prime candidate for anything from a flying triangle to a flying knee. That Bezerra knows his flying knees and armbars better than his jabs and pivots is a problem, but he has actually begun to work on this as he gets older, indicating that he is settling into the role of prospect-killing gatekeeper. Look for Kennedy to do well before learning a hard lesson. The pick is Bezerra by second-round submission.

Middleweights

Garreth McLellan (13-5) vs. Paulo Henrique Costa (8-0): Though McLellan himself has not dominated in the UFC, his style -- that of an aimless but iron-willed journeyman -- seems to dominate the lower ranks of the middleweight division. Doing what journeymen do, McLellan fills in on somewhat short notice for brawler Alex Nicholson in an attempt to hold the gate against promotional newcomer Costa, who looks and fights a lot like Alistair Overeem, circa 2010. Costa is a powerful striker, with all eight of his wins coming via first-round knockout. Also like Overeem, Costa does seem susceptible to gassing out, as evinced by his uninspired loss to Marcio Alexandre Jr. on “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3.” Costa has improved his striking technique since his appearance on the show, however, and McLellan is the perfect opponent to test whether he has patched up his gas tank, as well. McLellan is one of those fighters who gets tired but never stops, and while he has no particular area of expertise, he is well-rounded enough to hang just about anywhere with an inexperienced fighter. If he does survive Costa’s early onslaught, he may be able to take over in the later rounds. As Costa is a 25-year-old plus athlete, however, I am relying on his established pattern of inter-fight improvement and expecting him to find McLellan’s chin early and often. Costa by first-round TKO is the pick.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.