Preview: UFC Fight Night 156 ‘Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2’

Welterweights

Alexey Kunchenko (20-0, -150) vs. Gilbert Burns (15-3, +120): A late injury to Laureano Staropoli has turned this into one of the more interesting fights on the card. It is still difficult to know exactly what to make of Russia’s Kunchenko. With a long undefeated record against a strong slate of competition, the 35-year old figured to immediately make an impact upon the welterweight division, and while Kunchenko has handily won fights over Thiago Alves and Yushin Okami, his performances have not exactly been inspiring, as he has been content to turn them into slow-paced kickboxing contests and rarely press the action. With Staropoli out, Burns has decided to step in to take on Kunchenko, though it is unclear if this is a permanent move to 170 pounds or just a one-off for the rising lightweight. Burns’ game is clicking as well as it ever has. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace has developed a power striking game may not be defensively sound, but it has become offensively dangerous; and it has done a solid job of setting up his strong grappling game. Burns has traditionally been defensively open as he tries to get things going on the feet, so it will be interesting to see if Kunchenko can literally beat the Brazilian to the punch. That will probably be the key to the fight. Even with Burns’ strong wrestling, it does not seem likely that he can get things going enough to catch a submission. Kunchenko is more the type of fighter who can be controlled against the fence and put on the defensive rather than fully taken down and overwhelmed. There are some concerns about how Burns’ relative speed moving up a weight class may affect Kunchenko and his patient pace, but in a pure kickboxing match, it is difficult not to favor the Russian. The pick is Kunchenko via decision.

Heavyweights

Ciryl Gane (3-0, -420) vs. Raphael Pessoa (9-0, +335): It has been quite the rise for France’s Gane, as this fight will take place just one year and eight days after his pro MMA debut. The muay Thai specialist debuted for Montreal’s TKO Major League MMA promotion in August 2018 and immediately hit the ground running, earning its vacant heavyweight title and knocking out all comers in the process. Gane was supposed to face Pessoa in March before TKO canceled that event, but the UFC decided to revisit the matchup for their Octagon debuts. There is not a ton of information available on Pessoa, but he looks to have some decent submission skills for a heavyweight, even if his striking is a bit wild. Gane has made his name by tagging slower-footed and less athletic fighters, and Pessoa looks like he will fall right into that pattern. The pick is Gane via first-round knockout.

Women’s Strawweights

Tecia Torres (10-4, -150) vs. Marina Rodriguez (11-0-1, +130): It has been a quiet slide over the last year and a half, but Torres has slowly gone from perennial strawweight contender to a fighter who badly needs a win here. Torres has been a divisional dark horse for as long as the UFC has featured strawweights. She was a top prospect when the UFC introduced the division, and a narrow decision against Rose Namajunas marked her lone loss in her first seven UFC fights. However, at the very elite level of the division, Torres’ physical profile starts to betray her. While she packs a ton of muscle onto her small frame, she is left being too short to hang with longer strikers like Joanna Jedrzejczyk on the feet and not strong enough to grapple with the likes of Jessica Andrade or Weili Zhang. She gets a step back here against Brazil’s Rodriguez, who has shown off her fun muay Thai skills in her two UFC bouts thus far. Rodriguez can cause some damage, particularly in the clinch, but this looks like an easier reprise of the Jedrzejczyk bout for Torres. In broad strokes, Rodriguez has a similar skill set to the former champ but is a much lesser athlete with a far worse wrestling game -- something that should benefit Torres. Given that she is coming off three straight losses, it would not be a surprise to just see Torres stay conservative and grind out a win. The pick is Torres via decision.

Flyweights

Rogerio Bontorin (15-1, -115) vs. Raulian Paiva (18-2, -105): Flyweight graduates from the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Contender Series collide here. Bontorin has already authored one of the biggest upsets of 2019 with his win over Magomed Bibulatov in February. The Parana native is a well-rounded veteran who won mostly by staying active, particularly through use of his well-practiced grappling game. Paiva is much more on the raw athlete side of the spectrum. Despite having just as long of a record, Paiva has historically faced much weaker competition and only started getting into the deep end the last few years. That made his own UFC debut quite impressive, as well, even if it came in a loss, as he gave Kai Kara-France a fun and competitive bout. This should lead to a bunch of offensively focused madness and a sleeper contender for “Fight of the night.” Bontorin is probably the safer pick given his stronger resume, but the combination of his lack of defense and Paiva’s superior physical skills make the younger fighter worth the flier. The pick is Paiva via decision.

Bantamweights

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. (12-4, -125) vs. Chris Gutierrez (13-4-1, +105): Gutierrez looks like a solid fighter through two UFC fights, though it is difficult to peg exactly where he stands on a deep bantamweight ladder. He was thrown in way over his head for his debut against Raoni Barcelos, only to get thrown a late replacement softball in Ryan MacDonald his last time out. Gutierrez seems to be a jack of all trades master of none-type, and de Freitas appears to be cut from a similar mold. His debut bout against Felipe Colares seemed unnecessary given the depth at 135 pounds. However, with Colares getting a win over Domingo Pilarte a few weeks back, it now looks better that de Freitas managed to beat his Brazilian countryman behind his long reach and a strong submission game. Gutierrez is the better athlete, so he should be able to pick apart de Freitas with leg kicks and handle himself well in any grappling exchanges. The pick is Gutierrez via decision.

Lightweights

Alex da Silva Coelho (20-2) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (10-2, +205): Coelho was a perfectly fine pickup as a late replacement for the April event in Russia. The Astra Fight Team product is an athlete with a bunch of natural talent, but his long record has historically been against a weak schedule, leaving him as the type of fighter who can do a bunch of things in different aspects of the fight without much of an overriding process. An injury replacement and Mexican newcomer, Vargas has the exact opposite approach. The Combate Americas alum does not appear to have a ton in the way of physical tools, but he has crafted a savvy and well-rounded game that could cause Coelho some issues. Vargas’ wrestling is a particular concern given Coelho’s willingness to be controlled as he works for submissions, but in general, the athletic gap will likely be too much for the debutant to handle. The pick is Coelho via second-round knockout.

Women’s Flyweights

Polyana Viana (10-3, -175) vs. Veronica Macedo (5-3-1, +145): It is worth appreciating just how much Macedo got thrown into the deep end upon her 2016 UFC debut. At just 20 years old, the Venezuelan was less than six months into her pro career when she got the call as a late replacement to face Ashlee Evans-Smith. Even beyond her rawness, Macedo figured to have trouble making a grappling-heavy game work as an undersized bantamweight, so it was a bit of a godsend when the UFC introduced its women’s flyweight division, even if Macedo has not fared much better in her two fights since. She takes on a late replacement in Viana, who steps up from a career mostly spent at strawweight. Viana has had some similar issues. Coming up on the regional scene, she managed to stay aggressive and hunt submissions without much issue, but even non-athletes like J.J. Aldrich and Hannah Cifers have been able to neutralize the best parts of her game. This is a weird mix of a fight given that both women generally try to hunt for submissions and have had different issues. Macedo has stayed active but has just looked to be physically overwhelmed, while Viana has been shut down by anyone with any semblance of technique. Viana’s size may still be too much for Macedo to handle, but in general, the Venezuelan’s game seems less broken. The pick is Macedo via decision in a coin flip of a fight.