Preview: UFC Fight Night 153 ‘Gustafsson vs. Smith’

Women’s Bantamweights

Tonya Evinger (19-7, -265) vs. Lina Lansberg (8-4, +225): Evinger’s signing with the UFC was long overdue. For years, the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder and UFC brass have had a frosty relationship for reasons that are not entirely clear, but once the UFC was running out of opponents for Cristiane Justino, Evinger eventually got the call. Evinger acquitted herself well, but things have not gone great since. First, Evinger suffered a severe knee injury, and then came a concerning loss to Aspen Ladd. While Ladd is a top prospect, Evinger has typically made a living through outworking younger and underprepared fighters, and this fight just saw her get overwhelmed in the clinch and pounded out on the mat in short order. Evinger is nearly 38 years old and has had a long career, so maybe the wheels are finally falling off, but “Triple Threat” needs to turn things around fast, especially since there is the constant feeling that she is someone the UFC is looking to jettison. She will take on a fellow “Cyborg” victim in Lansberg, who has a strong clinch game and little else going for her. At women’s bantamweight, that is enough to be a going concern in the middle tier of the division, but Evinger’s diverse skills and ability to wrestle should see her through in this one. Whether or not this last knee injury marks the end of Evinger’s effectiveness remains a huge question mark, but expect her to win a decision and snap a two-fight losing streak.

Welterweights

Rostem Akman (5-0, +135) vs. Sergey Khandozhko (25-5-1, -175): Russia’s Khandozhko should be an entertaining addition to the UFC’s welterweight roster. While he stalled out a bit during his time in Absolute Championship Berkut, Khandozhko has used his current two-fight winning streak to show off his wares and the excitement that he can bring to the table, finishing Adriano Rodrigues with a spinning back kick in his most recent fight. Khandozhko was initially matched with Polish grinder Bartosz Fabinski in an odd booking from an entertainment standpoint, but with Fabinski injured, Khandozhko draws a more forgiving matchup -- both in terms of difficulty and watchability -- against Akman. The Swedish newcomer has some knockout power, but in general, he seems to be too plodding and too patient to get much done at this level, even if he could be dangerous in moments. Khandozhko can probably win a straight striking match, but the Russian has shown the willingness to use some passable wrestling to grind out a victory if need be, which is probably the safer route here. The pick is Khandozhko via decision.

Lightweights

Steven Ray (22-8, +215) vs. Leonardo Santos (16-3-1, -255): This is a rare Santos sighting, so it is worth reflecting on just how strange his run has been. “The Ultimate Fighter” is theoretically supposed to find top young prospects, so it was a bit disappointing when the longtime veteran, well into his 30s, won the second Brazilian iteration of the reality show. Since then, he has done shockingly well, going undefeated with wins over Anthony Rocco Martin and Kevin Lee that have aged excellently over time. However, they have also had a lot of time to age. After fighting consistently through that Lee fight in 2015, Santos nailed down a controversial win over Adriano Martins in late 2016, then promptly vanished for the next two and a half years. He will look to continue his winning ways against Scotland’s Ray, who badly needs to regain some momentum. Ray looked to be on the verge of becoming something after a string of wins two years ago, but a loss to Paul Felder in Glasgow has been followed by a string of flat performances. Both Kajan Johnson and Jessin Ayari managed to slow down Ray and force him to ineffectively chase, even if he still squeaked out a decision win over the latter. Santos’ layoff makes this a difficult fight to call, but if the Brazilian is back to his old form, he has too many options to win. He should be able to follow the same game plan and pick apart Ray on the feet as he wishes, and the combination of the Scot’s poor defensive wrestling and Santos’ Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree suggests he would have the advantage on the mat, as well. The pick is Santos via decision.

Lightweights

Nick Hein (14-4, -110) vs. Frank Camacho (21-7, -110): When the UFC tried once again to break into Germany, it seemed to center its efforts around Hein, who was as good a choice as any due to his notoriety in the country as an actor. However, Hein’s run never particularly captured the imagination. While Hein has some punching power and judo skills upon which to fall back, he mostly uses it to neutralize his opponents into fights that quickly turn stagnant. It has usually been effective, but Hein is now looking to rebound from a tough 2018 campaign: Davi Ramos tapped him in short order, and during the UFC’s last jaunt to Germany, Hein’s slow pace cost him a narrow decision against Damir Hadzovic. He takes on Camacho, one of the more underrated action heroes on the UFC roster, as he has scored “Fight of the Night” honors in three of his four bouts inside the Octagon. Camacho theoretically comes from a grappling background, but he gets by as a brawler. It is a tough approach, as Camacho tends to need a while to warm up and feel out his opponents. Once he can effectively land blows, he is usually left to try and fight through exhaustion. At the very least, Camacho should keep Hein active through his sheer aggression and could earn a decision win by doing so. However, Hein has some underrated power when he chooses to throw, and his grappling could serve as a nice fallback. It is a strange fight, which makes it hard to call, but the pick is Hein via decision.

Women’s Featherweights

Bea Malecki (2-0, -120) vs. Duda Santanna (3-0, +100): When Malecki was announced as part of the most recent season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” the marketable-good-looks alarm was set off, given that the former muay Thai fighter had little pro MMA experience. However, beggars cannot be choosers in a division as thin as women’s featherweight, and in her lone fight on the reality series, she showed enough potential to get signed and make her proper UFC debut at home in Sweden. As for her opponent, the words Alex Oliveira protege seem a bit odd given that the Brazilian “Cowboy” is not much of a technical master, but they describe Santanna, who also makes her debut here. Based off of what little footage is available, Santana is purely a plodding power puncher. She has some decent form at times, but when she seeks the finish or starts to tire, everything goes out the window as she tries to turn fights into a brawl. Physical ability alone may be enough to overwhelm Malecki, but Malecki’s comparatively fast and technical on the feet, and the Swede possesses much more of a well-rounded skill set. If things go to the mat, a submission win is quite possible, but the pick is for Malecki to stay relatively safe and win a decision.

Light Heavyweights

Darko Stosic (13-1, -140) vs. Devin Clark (9-3, +120): It would be nice if Clark finally turned the corner. The South Dakota native came into the UFC as an interesting prospect, particularly at light heavyweight, but little has changed over the ensuing three years. Clark can wrestle a bit and his punching form is fine, but there is no real structure or direction to his game and he still tends to fall back on aggression and athleticism. It is enough to beat the bottom tier of the UFC’s light heavyweights, but against veterans or fellow promising prospects, Clark tends to charge his way right into a finish. He will take on Serbia’s Stosic, who is mildly interesting in his own right. Stosic is a technically sound power puncher, but after a career at heavyweight, moving down to light heavyweight in the UFC was an odd decision. Stosic was not amazingly fast at heavyweight, but he is absolutely plodding down at 205 pounds. Clark is perfectly capable of charging right into one of Stosic’s power shots and that may in fact be the likeliest scenario, but his speed on the feet and his wrestling game -- if he chooses to pursue it -- should carry him through here. The pick is Clark via decision.

Lightweights

Joel Alvarez (15-2, -130) vs. Danilo Belluardo (12-3, +110): Spain’s Alvarez did not figure to be a UFC-level fighter, but his debut in February against Damir Ismagulov was disappointing nonetheless. Alvarez was expected to bring a bit of excitement, but he did not even look to pull the trigger in coasting to a one-sided loss. Perhaps he can improve against an Italian newcomer in Belluardo. Probably best known for losing to A.J. McKee on a Bellator MMA card in Torino, Italy, “Caterpillar” has since rebounded for a six-fight winning streak. Belluardo should take this handily. If nothing else, he looks to wrestle and Alvarez has looked like the type of fighter who would rather hunt for submissions than get out of bad positions, even on the regional scene. The Italian should keep dishing out damage, so the pick is Belluardo via second-round stoppage.