Preview: UFC Fight Night 144 ‘Assuncao vs. Moraes 2’

Middleweights

Markus Perez (10-2) vs. Anthony Hernandez (7-0): Perez did not appear to have the best style to translate to the UFC level, and thus far, that has been mostly true. He earned a win over an overmatched James Bochnovic, but otherwise, he has not shown much. It is hard to peg a clear competency for Perez, who mostly relied on being patient and opportunistic at the regional level. Against better competition, Perez has shown neither the skills to earn a finish nor the gas tank to outlast his foes. Perhaps he will turn that around against the debuting Hernandez, who succeeded Perez as Legacy Fighting Alliance middleweight champion. Hernandez does not pop on film, either, but he has some solid overall skills and some knockout power. Plus, his Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series performance against Jordan Wright showed he can turn up the pressure and hunt for the finish as needed. It may take some time, but he should be able to wear out Perez and make the fight one-sided from there. The pick is Hernandez via second-round stoppage. ODDS: Hernandez (-185), Perez (+160)

Women’s Flyweights

Mara Romero Borella (11-5) vs. Taila Santos (15-0): After an impressive first year in the UFC, 2018 was a bust for Borella. First came a dispiriting loss to Katlyn Chookagian in January, followed by a 26-year suspension from Italy’s anti-doping agency stemming from charges of distributing cannabis and cocaine. The UFC has decided not to recognize that suspension, so Borella returns to serve as a big prospect test for the debuting Santos. The undefeated Santos mostly crushed cans on her way up the Brazilian scene, but after a two-year layoff, she returned on the Brazilian version of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series to show off an effective muay Thai game and earn a UFC contract. Santos could beat Borella in much the same way Chookagian did -- by sticking and moving while preventing the power-heavy Borella from planting and throwing -- but that may be less effective given that Santos will not have the size and reach advantages that “Blonde Fighter” did. Santos is a solid long-term prospect, so this is more a test of where she is right now, rather than a question of whether or not she will be any good; and if her defensive grappling is up to snuff, she still might manage to get the win here. However, it is the kind of thing that has to be seen before it can be trusted, and Borella is simply a much better fighter than anyone Santos has faced to date. The pick is Borella via decision. ODDS: Santos (-160), Borella (+140)

Welterweights

Thiago Alves (22-13) vs. Max Griffin (14-5): This late phase of Alves’ career has been marred by injuries and declining athleticism, but 2017 saw the longtime welterweight veteran turn back to clock with a solid win over Patrick Cote. However, 2018 brought back the red flags for the “Pitbull,” as Alves looked slow and offered little against rising fighters Curtis Millender and Alexey Kunchenko. Alves looks to stop his slide and prove he is not yet done against Griffin, who still might be somewhat of a prospect, even at age 33 and nearly a decade into his pro career. Griffin is older than you would expect, but he has also made solid improvements during his brief UFC career. Griffin in 2018 broke out of his aggressive action fighter mold to put on some solid range striking performances against Millender and Mike Perry, and he looked quick enough that he should be able to do the same against Alves. The American Top Team-trained Alves has shown enough recently that if he is having a good night, his counterstriking could win him this fight. However, based off of their recent performances, the pick is Griffin via decision. ODDS: Griffin (-220), Alves (+180)

Heavyweights

Junior Albini (14-4) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (5-0): The prospect shine came off of Albini in short order. The Brazilian debuted with a surprisingly impressive win over Timothy Johnson, but followed it with a flat loss to Andrei Arlovski and a quick submission loss to Alexey Oleynik. There is still plenty like about Albini -- he is young for the division, and despite his flabby frame, he remains a surprisingly fast and quick-handed boxer -- but he badly needs a win against the debuting Jair Rozenstruik. Suriname’s Rozenstruik, a Rizin Fighting Federation alum, comes from a muay Thai background, and his gameplan seems to consist entirely of power striking. Despite a tendency to get wild and aggressive, it has worked thus far, and he looks fast and athletic enough that it should work here. These are two low-level heavyweights with knockout power, so this should be fun, dumb and over quickly. The pick is Rozenstruik via first-round knockout. ODDS: Rozenstruik (-115), Albini (-105)

Bantamweights

Ricardo Ramos (12-1) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (12-1): It speaks to the current depth of the UFC’s bantamweight division that Ramos is an under-the-radar prospect. While he can be too aggressive for his own good, he is still a 23-year-old with a long frame for the division and an exciting fight style that has seen him go undefeated in three UFC fights. He welcomes Nurmagomedov back to 135 pounds, as the Russian -- who, despite his last name, is more of a family friend to Khabib Nurmagomedov than a blood relative -- moves up after a successful if controversial debut win over Justin Scoggins at flyweight. Nurmagomedov is a similar fighter to Ramos, as he is well-rounded everywhere and prioritizes offense and activity over all else, so this should be absolute madness. The non-stop action that this fight promises means that either guy can win, but Ramos has typically shown that he is the fighter who can keep up the better pace. The pick is Ramos via decision in a clear contender for “Fight of the Night.” ODDS: Ramos (-115), Nurmagomedov (-105)

Flyweights

Rogerio Bontorin (14-1) vs. Magomed Bibulatov (14-1): Ignoring his reputation as an unsavory character outside of the cage, Bibulatov’s combination of strong grappling and flashy striking has made him one of the best flyweight prospects in the world, which made it all the more surprising when John Moraga obliterated him in late 2017 and handed the Russian his first career loss. Bibulatov figured to rebound in short order, but since injuries kept him out of action for all of 2018, he looks to get back to his winning ways against the debuting Bontorin. The Brazilian is an interesting talent himself and a dangerous opponent, particularly if Bibulatov gets overly aggressive or has a lapse in judgement. He has the well-put-together striking to crack Bibulatov much like Moraga did, and he has also proven to be a dangerous submission threat throughout his career. The pick is Bibulatov via decision, as he should be able to rely on his wrestling, but seeing his hype train get completely derailed would not be a shock. ODDS: Bibulatov (-445), Bontorin (+355)

Bantamweights

Geraldo de Freitas Jr. (11-4) vs. Felipe Dias Colares (8-0): Two Brazilian bantamweights debut in this late addition to the card. Colares looks like a solid if unspectacular prospect, though there is also the solid chance that he looks much-improved here, given that he is cutting back down to 135 pounds after a 16-month layoff. His avenue to winning seems to be making the fight a grind, which should only serve him better down a weight class. The former Jungle Fight featherweight champion will take on former Shooto bantamweight champ Freitas. Based on what little recent footage is out there, Freitas is a patient fighter whose best skills look to revolve around a solid submission game. Still, Colares should be able to overpower and control him, even as Freitas remains dangerous throughout. The pick is Colares via decision. ODDS: De Freitas (-135), Colares (-105)