Preview: UFC Fight Night 140 ‘Magny vs. Ponzinibbio’

Welterweights

Michel Prazeres (25-2) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (14-2): Prazeres might have the highest success-to-hype ratio in the UFC, as the Brazilian grinder has quietly won nine of his 11 fights in the Octagon, including his last seven. In fact, Prazeres’ toughest opponent in recent memory has been the scale, as repeated weight misses eventually forced him to move up to welterweight. After an impressive 170-pound debut against Zak Cummings, Prazeres looks to make it eight straight against Poland’s Fabinski, who is a straight-ahead grinder and little else. Though to be fair, that is all he has needed, as he has won all three of his UFC fights with little more than takedowns. This is an interesting matchup, if only because Fabinski is the largest wrestler Prazeres has faced yet. If Prazeres cannot rely on his own strong wrestling game, it is unclear how well the rest of his strategy holds up. Fabinski could just grind this one out, but I put my faith in Prazeres, if only because the Brazilian has more tools with which to work and could even win a weird striking match. The pick is Prazeres via decision. ODDS: Prazeres (-220), Fabinski (+180)

Flyweights

Alexandre Pantoja (19-3) vs. Yuta Sasaki (21-5-2): One of the first death knells for the UFC’s flyweight division was when the promotion picked up so few fighters from its recent all-flyweight season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Pantoja was one of the few fighters who stuck, and he has proven worthy of that status thus far, winning three out of four, including a one-sided win over Brandon Moreno. Pantoja is a dangerous, well-rounded fighter, but his lone UFC loss to Dustin Ortiz showed that the Brazilian sometimes has difficulty fighting at a pace, particularly if his opponent manages to rely on some strong wrestling to wear him out. I am not sure Japan’s Sasaki is the guy to follow that game plan. At 5-foot-10, Sasaki is a ridiculously tricky fighter, especially when it comes to submissions, but I do not believe he has the power wrestling game necessary to take over the fight and tire Pantoja. While Sasaki could instead try to wear out Pantoja with his manic pressure striking game, the Brazilian is just as likely to hit him back hard or take things to the ground himself. The pick is Pantoja via decision. ODDS: Pantoja (-380), Sasaki (+315)

Featherweights

Humberto Bandenay (14-5) vs. Austin Arnett (15-5): Even Arnett was apparently surprised he got a third UFC shot, so at least he is aware he has not shown much in his two UFC fights to date. The Sikjitsu product is a defensively porous kickboxer, and at the UFC level, opponents have been either too aggressive for Arnett to pick his spots or just simply harder hitters. Peru’s Bandenay might be both. A solid athlete, Bandenay fought like a maniac on the Peruvian scene, and that has continued in the UFC, where his two fights have lasted a combined 65 seconds. He can probably overwhelm Arnett here, and even if he does not get the early finish, the Peruvian figures to land the harder and more frequent punches. The pick is Bandenay via second-round knockout. ODDS: Bandenay (-250), Arnett (+210)

Welterweights

Laureano Staropoli (7-1) vs. Hector Aldana (4-1): Aldana’s was one of the stranger UFC debuts in 2018. He was on Season 2 of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America” and then vanished for reasons that are not exactly clear. Given that Aldana was coming off of a layoff leading into the reality show, by the time he made his UFC debut in June, it had been over four and a half years since his last professional fight. Aldana’s a plodding power striker and seemingly little else, but even that might be enough to beat Staropoli. The Argentinian newcomer seems to hit hard but does not seem to have much in the way of technique; he even got outwrestled a bunch on the Argentinian scene, which does not seem too promising for an upward move in competition. Staropoli may just be too fast for Aldana, but I will take the Mexican in a fun brawl that is not really a UFC-level fight. The pick is Aldana via second-round knockout. ODDS: Staropoli (-185), Aldana (+160)

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