Expect the unexpected.@DamirHadzo looks for ANOTHER highlight reel finish at #UFCHamburg. pic.twitter.com/roDcpffvFQ
— UFC (@ufc) July 19, 2018
FS1 Prelims
Lightweights
Nick Hein (14-3, 1 N/C) vs. Damir Hadzovic (11-4)
Odds: Hein (-170), Hadzovic (+150)
When the UFC returned to Germany in 2014, it looked as though the promotion was positioning Nick Hein as its potential local draw; he had the highest placement of any German fighter on the card, and on top of being a national champion judoka, had some notoriety in his side job as a comedic actor. And while Hein's UFC career has been fairly successful, it's hard not to be left wanting more. Hein has appeared on every German card since his debut, and the result has always been the same: Hein uses a combination of his judo background and darting striking style to win a clear, but absolutely uninspiring, decision. Hein could use one of those at the moment, though. After a year and a half off due to injury, Hein returned at UFC 224 this past May, where Davi Ramos ran through him in surprisingly quick fashion. Hein returns home to face Bosnian Damir Hadzovic, who's an interesting striker but hasn't really gotten the right matchmaking to shine. Hadzovic debuted on UFC's lone card from Croatia back in 2016, and got thrown into the deep end, facing underrated Russian Mairbek Taisumov in what turned out to be a fun three-minute war before Taisumov got the knockout win. Since then, Hadzovic's been matched up with opponents who've just looked to take him to the mat. He at least got a win over Marcin Held, scoring a late comeback win by tagging Held with a knee as the Pole dove in for a takedown, but that was Hadzovic's only real offense in the fight, and a follow-up bout saw Alan Patrick easily grind out a decision win. It's probably another frustrating night for Hadzovic, as Hein's judo skills should be enough to control Hadzovic and grind out a win, but if Hein decides to screw around on the feet at all, he could find himself in trouble. My pick is Hein via decision.
Welterweights
Emil Meek (9-3-1, 1 N/C) vs. Bartosz Fabinski (13-2)
Odds: Meek (-165), Fabinski (+145)
Norway's Emil Meek has both the talent and the charisma to be someone that the UFC can feature prominently on these European cards, but his UFC career has yet to have a ton of momentum. Meek got onto most people's radar with his win over Rousimar Palhares in Venator FC, and that apparently included UFC, who signed him to a contract shortly thereafter. Meek won an impressive, if somewhat ugly fight, over Jordan Mein to close out 2016, but was never really able to follow up on it, missing all of 2017 due to injury. And once Meek returned to the cage on UFC's first card of 2018, he was matched up with rising welterweight Kamaru Usman, who, rather than mess with Meek's dangerous power game, decided to take Meek to the mat and grind out a decision. Meek takes on Bartosz Fabinski, who makes his first appearance in nearly three years. Fabinski was one of a bunch of fighters signed with UFC made their 2015 debut in his native Poland, and in two fights over seven months, Fabinski proved to be a perfectly acceptable grinder, using his takedown game to get one-sided wins over Garreth McLellan and Hector Urbina. But a back injury took Fabinski out of a 2016 bout with Nicolas Dalby, and it's taken him over two years to recover. Fabinski is capable of grinding out another win here, but this does seem like a set-up win for Meek. Meek's game is a bit weird, built almost entirely off of his natural power, but that does make him oddly dangerous in a lot of positions, particularly in transitions as opponents try to grapple with him. And particularly coming off a major back injury, Fabinski seems like the type of opponent that Meek can blast as he tries to grind out a victory. My pick is Meek via second-round knockout.
Featherweights
Khalid Taha (12-1) vs. Nad Narimani (10-2)
Odds: Narimani (-270), Taha (+230)
This is a fun bout between two debuting featherweights. England's Nad Narimani is coming off the biggest win of his career, unseating the much more hyped Paddy Pimblett to earn the Cage Warriors featherweight title, but it's taken over a year for Narimani to get back into the cage. Narimani was slated to make a late-notice debut earlier this year, fighting up a weight class against Nasrat Haqparast, but the fight was scratched the day of thanks to a Haqparast eye infection. There was some talk of Narimani fighting on the UFC Liverpool card, which never developed, but Narimani still wound up making his debut against a German prospect, in this case fellow featherweight Khalid Taha. Taha is an interesting prospect who has already made a bit of a name for himself with a 1-1 record in Rizin Fighting Federation, and his game is overwhelmingly built around power; he's a knockout artist at his best, and while his grappling game does exist, it's more dependent on his ability to outmuscle his opponent than anything else. It'll be interesting to see what he can accomplish against Narimani, whose main strength is his lack of weaknesses; he has solid striking, solid wrestling, solid cardio, and remains durable, which is both a positive and a negative. I think Narimani has the experience to navigate this one, particularly in the grappling realm, but this is a fight where Taha can still manage to impress. Still, my pick is Narimani via decision.
Light Heavyweights
Justin Ledet (9-0, 1 N/C) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (9-1)
Odds: Ledet (-125), Rakic (+105)
In terms of a battle between high-ceiling prospects, this might be the most interesting fight on the card, particularly since light heavyweight needs new blood. Texas's Ledet was a bit of a mystery man upon his 2016 debut, owing to a long layoff as he focused on his boxing career, but once he made his way to the Octagon, he immediately became a prospect to watch. Thanks to his boxing background, Ledet was able to tee off on the defensively porous Chase Sherman, and followed that up with an impressive submission win over Mark Godbeer that seemed to even surprise Ledet. But 2017 wound up being a bit of a lost year for Ledet; first, he was forced out of action after a contaminated supplement led to an alleged flagged drug test, and then Ledet put in an unimpressive performance against Zu Anyanwu, circling and never really forcing the action while picking Anyanwu apart en route to an interminable decision win. Somewhat surprisingly, since he actually gained weight in each of his heavyweight fights, Ledet is now moving down to 205, where Austria's Aleksandar Rakic will welcome him. Rakic seemed like somewhat of a flier himself when the UFC picked him up for last year's card in Rotterdam; he had only fought once since 2015, and that was a quick knockout on the regional scene. But Rakic looked like a fluid kickboxer on paper and translated that skill to his UFC debut, picking apart perennial prospect-killer Francimar Barroso en route to a clear decision win. It's a hard fight to call, particularly since Rakic is still a bit of a mystery man at this level and this is Ledet's debut at light heavyweight. As a fighter who had a big advantage in hand speed, we may see the inverse of the dynamic when Daniel Cormier moved back up to heavyweight, with Ledet being unprepared to deal with quicker fighters. Still, I like Ledet's boxing skills, so I'll pick him via decision, even though this is probably my shakiest pick of the card.
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