Women’s Flyweights
Sijara Eubanks (2-2) vs. Lauren Murphy (10-3)
Odds: Eubanks (-170), Murphy (+150)
Eubanks was supposed to vie for the inaugural women’s flyweight strap opposite Nicco Montano, but a botched weight cut ended those aspirations prematurely. Ironically, her weight was the very thing that threatened to derail her run on TUF 26 and the source of the bad blood between her and Murphy. Now the two will get the chance to settle their differences. Eubanks was the 12-seed on the show owing to her inexperience and 2-2 pro record. But she is a heavy-handed BJJ black belt. Her wrestling and kickboxing are developing, and despite being 33, she has time to improve in the nascent flyweight division. Following the taping, Eubanks decided to drop anchor with her coach from the show, Eddie Alvarez, and his team led by Ricardo Almeida and Mark Henry. That premier squad should only hasten her development. Murphy, meanwhile, is a gritty boxer. Heavy on her front leg, she steps in with two-punch combinations, but she is not very powerful and is not hard to hit. “Lucky” is really at her best raining down elbows and punches from top position. The MMA Lab rep’s wrestling is solid but unspectacular. The BJJ purple belt will find tough sledding should the fight spill onto the canvas in this matchup, though. Eubanks hits harder, kicks more readily, and will have an advantage on the ground. Murphy will have to hope “Sarj” tires and make her move down the stretch. Eubanks hangs on for a decision.
Lightweights
Nik Lentz (28-8-2, 1 N/C) vs. David Teymur (7-1)
Odds: Teymur (-290), Lentz (+245)
The younger Teymur is the more experienced of the pair, so it is puzzling that David, 4-0 in the UFC, is on the prelims. Nevertheless, the exciting kickboxer gets a different type of matchup when he squares up with wrestle-grappler Lentz. Teymur has exceptionally quick kicks from his southpaw stance with almost no telegraph to them. He is less comfortable throwing hands, but he’ll swing if pressured. The Swede demonstrates an encouraging sense of urgency in getting back to space and immediately scrambling to his feet if taken down. Both will be essential skills against Lentz, who figures to try planting Teymur or dragging him into an ugly clinch battle. “The Carny” is coming off a guillotine choke win over former ATT teammate Will Brooks in November, and that submission remains his most lethal weapon. Lentz now trains at Henri Hooft’s Hard Knocks 365, which should suit his pressuring style well. He can kick the legs and body with either leg, switch stances a bit, and throw sweeping hooks to try and corral his opponents. This might be a tough test for Teymur; I think it will be closer than the line indicates. But I do have Teymur staying on his bike, using his quickness and sharper striking to outpoint the long-time veteran by decision.
Welterweights
Belal Muhammad (13-2) vs. Chance Rencountre (12-2)
Odds: Muhammad (-400), Rencountre (+325)
Newcomer Rencountre is a Bellator veteran hailing from Nebraska and fighting out of Alliance MMA in San Diego. A southpaw, Rencountre is long and lanky, with power in his left hand and left body kick. But “Black Eagle” is eminently hittable. His head movement is decent at range, but as soon as he engages, he is there to be countered. This deficiency is exacerbated by his tendency to pot-shot, intermittently stepping forward to throw one or two shots at a time before resetting. But the Nebraskan is tough and rounding out his game; he picked up his only two submission wins in his last two fights. A junior college wrestler back home in Nebraska, Rencountre uses that skill set primarily to stay upright. In tie-ups, he’ll look for upper body takedowns, rarely shooting traditional wrestling shots. Lately, his long limbs have been helping him work an increasingly effective front headlock series. Muhammad, meanwhile, trains out of Roufusport, and his high-volume kickboxing attack jives with his main trainer. Despite fighting orthodox, “Remember the Name” favors a sneaky left high kick. Muhammad’s arsenal is multi-faceted. He chews up his opponent’s legs with kicks and typically punches in combination at boxing range. His takedown defense is very solid, and his offensive wrestling is a viable weapon he can mix in. Muhammad was originally supposed to face Niko Price, and Rencountre is taking this fight on just over a week’s notice. Even on a full camp, this would be a tall task for the newcomer. Muhammad is a very solid striker and just beat a more experienced, varied and dangerous tall southpaw in Tim Means. Muhammad by 2nd-round TKO is the pick.
Lightweights
Desmond Green (20-7) vs. Gleison Tibau (33-13)
Odds: Green (-300), Tibau (+250)
Green is looking to bounce back from two frustrating losses to more powerful wrestlers, while Tibau is returning from a much more severe series of setbacks. The Brazilian has been a UFC lightweight staple for over a decade, but he spent all of 2016 and 2017 sidelined after failing a USADA test. His first-round rear-naked choke win over Abel Trujillo was changed to a disqualification loss, and after serving his suspension, Tibau was promptly knocked senseless by Islam Makhachev in less than a minute. The long-time ATT stalwart is only 34, but he has been fighting professionally for over 18 years and is closing in on 50 fights. Those facts inform this fight more than anything else. Tibau is smothering BJJ black belt who averages more than four takedowns per fight while boasting a 92% takedown defense rate. But his bulky frame disallows him from throwing much volume on the feet. Green is a former D-1 wrestler, so it will not be easy for the aging Brazilian to grind him into dust. Plus, “The Predator” has much faster hands and feet and isn’t afraid to use them. He is especially adept at letting his hands go in transitions, off stuffed shots or clinch breaks. With only a minute of fight time in two and a half years, it’s still tough to know where Tibau is physically. He may have just gotten caught by a bomb that could have turned off anyone’s lights. I’ll lean toward the safer pick and say Green sprawls and brawls his way to a decision win.
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