Preview: UFC Fight Night 129 ‘Maia vs. Usman’

Welterweights
Zak Cummings vs. Michel Prazeres
Odds: Cummings (-140), Prazeres (+120)

Serial weight-misser Prazeres finally moves up to welterweight after a successful career at lightweight that was eventually derailed by the scale. Both he and Cummings are physical Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts who use their size and strength to bully opponents. They can do so standing or on the mat. Prazeres is a stocky, bullish blitzer who swings mean, wide hook combinations and complements them with whipping leg kicks. He’ll counter opponents’ low kicks with takedowns and go to work suffocating them on the mat. I have a very hard time seeing “Tractor” smothering Cummings, who will have six inches of height, a whopping eight inches of reach, and could easily be a middleweight. Prazeres might bring a speed advantage up with him, but the only thing harder than the Texas native’s left hand is his cast-iron jaw. In a battle between two bullying, physical forces, the bigger, stronger one has to have the advantage. The Glory MMA and Fitness rep gives Prazeres a taste of his own medicine and runs his winning streak to three with a decision victory.

Flyweights
Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja
Odds: Pantoja (-125), Moreno (+105)

The first fight between these men took place in the TUF gym on season 24, the fabled competitive fight between the 1-seed and the 16-seed. Top-seeded Pantoja came out on top of their slugfest. He finished it by shooting on a spent Moreno and hitting a beautiful back-take instantly, choking out the Mexican prospect moments later. Since the show, Moreno has gone 3-1, catapulting himself into the rankings with shocking finishes of the world-ranked (not TUF-ranked) Louis Smolka and Dustin Ortiz. But these were sandwiched around a more pedestrian decision over the more pedestrian Ryan Benoit and preceded his recent main event loss to Sergio Pettis. The Pettis setback highlighted how “The Assassin Baby’s” confidence, sky-high when the fight begins, can flag and falter when he is forced into a protracted battle. Moreno seemed to run out of ideas against a more technical kickboxer, growing increasingly frustrated by Pettis’ jab and his inability to catch him clean with something fight-altering. Pantoja is an aggressive puncher with a BJJ black belt. What made their first go-round so entertaining was the Brazilian marching face-first after Moreno, eating plenty of heavy fire in the early going. Moreno couldn’t hold himself back from throwing at every opportunity and so gassed himself out, opening the door for the submission. But Pantoja tagged up Moreno with hook combinations of his own, badly swelling one of his eyes. He’s gone 2-1 since the show, most recently getting frustratingly outwrestled by the aforementioned Ortiz. Moreno is still only 24 and took eight months off before his scheduled meeting with Ray Borg at UFC 223 was derailed. Those circumstances usually spell significant improvements in an already dynamic fighter. Moreno puts money in the bank by aggressively spamming offense for the first eight minutes. He manages to squeeze out a decision when he starts to fade down the stretch.

Strawweights
Poliana Botelho vs. Syuri Kondo
Odds: Botelho (-165), Kondo (+145)

Both strawweights enter their sophomore effort on the heels of victorious debuts. Botelho defeated Pearl Gonzalez despite having her back pressed into the cage for more than half the fight. Gonzalez doggedly clung to double legs she couldn’t complete, eating Travis Browne-style elbows and short punches. At range, the Brazilian showed a long karate stance despite her Muay Thai background, but she wasn’t able to control range with it. She swings with full power on nearly all of her attacks, which primarily include whipping leg kicks, front kicks, winging hooks and an occasional stiff jab. Takedowns and grappling have been problems for her in the past, but apparently Gonzalez was not the one to exploit those holes. Kondo might be, or at least have success in the phase Gonzalez struggled so much in. The former pro wrestler is a legitimate fighter, boasting her own karate roots and a professional kickboxing record of 13-1. She became strawweight Queen of Pancrase behind a grinding clinch game and high-output boxing. While she wasn’t able to corral Chan-Mi Jeon on the cage in her debut, she kept the pressure on with 1-2s and short overhands. Given Botelho’s penchant for swinging big single shots and backing into the cage, Kondo should get the kind of game she favors. Kondo out-paces Botelho and controls the action on her way to a decision win.

Featherweights
Gabriel Benitez vs. Humberto Bandenay
Odds: Benitez (-225), Bandenay (+185)

Peruvian striker Bandenay came into his UFC debut and did exactly what he wanted to, sparking out former TUF Latin America winner Martin Bravo in under a minute with a head kick. The 22-year-old now trains primarily at Team Oyama in southern California, so his game may start to improve rapidly. That would be good because there are glaring holes in it. Despite being a vicious kicker, Bandenay seems most comfortable in the clinch. He’ll force his way inside behind wild punch-kick combinations, though his technique is tightening up. Once clinched, he’ll stay busy grinding or look to trip the fight to the mat. His wrestling was serviceable on the Peruvian regional scene, but I have my doubts about its effectiveness at the highest level. If he can get on top, Bandenay is aggressive to a fault, giving up position by hunting submissions or selling out for ground and pound. Anytime he thinks he has his man hurt, he’ll throw everything but the kitchen sink at him to get the finish. Benitez isn’t a perfect fighter, but he is much further along in his development at 29, competing at the highest level for three and a half years. He just picked up the biggest win of his career over rising featherweight Jason Knight, stuffing takedowns and doing work with his baseball bat southpaw kicks. Traditionally, his guillotine has been a favorite and overused weapon that also served as his primary takedown defense. He has smartened up and continued to round out his game at American Kickboxing Academy. The fact that Benitez is also a southpaw takes away Bandenay’s favorite weapon: body and head kicks in open stance. The Peruvian will soon find himself on the wrong end of a kickboxing battle and seek his refuge in the clinch where he’ll run into that guillotine. Benitez by first-round submission is the pick.

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