Preview: UFC Fight Night 123 ‘Swanson vs. Ortega’

Women’s Flyweight

Liz Carmouche (11-5) vs. Alexis Davis (18-7)

ODDS: Carmouche (-175), Davis (+155)

ANALYSIS: The rose-tinted view on this fight is that the UFC’s embryonic women’s 125-pound division now has its first champion in Nicco Montano, so why not welcome a pair of former UFC bantamweight challengers to the mix? A slightly more cynical perspective: Carmouche and Davis have horribly uncomplimentary styles, and the UFC is determined to gift that next title shot to Paige VanZant. Yeehaw. These two met four years ago as bantamweights, with Davis leg kicking her way to a unanimous decision over the Marine. That fight went exactly as I described it. Davis hurt Carmouche with a low kick to her lead leg early on and never stopped pumping them. What has changed since, other than the weight class? Carmouche has fought just three times since due to a spate of injuries. She lost a razor-thin decision to Miesha Tate and then earned squeakers of her own over Lauren Murphy and Katlyn Chookagian. David got smoked by Ronda Rousey in 16 seconds, gave birth to a child and co-parented perhaps the worst fight in the UFC this year with a unanimous decision over Cindy Dandois in April. Carmouche and her crew at Team Hurricane Awesome -- now an elite stable of fighting women under trainer Manolo Hernandez that includes Bellator flyweight champ Ilima-Lei Macfarlane -- swear she is healthy and therefore capable of pushing the powerful, punishing game that earned her the nickname “Girl-rilla.” She is nowhere near as active as Davis on the feet, as shown in the first fight, but having two legs on which to stand this time around could change that dynamic greatly. Even with both women being former bantamweights, Carmouche will be the physically stronger fighter and should seek clinches behind her winging rights, bullying Davis against the fence. Carmouche tends not to do a ton of damage, and “Allygator” is a magnificent guard player who stays active with strikes from her back, all of which could serve to free up Davis. All of this sounds like I am building to a Davis pick, especially given the first fight outcome, but like the oddsmakers, I envision a fit, healthy Carmouche bullying her way to a close decision win, one which may result in some major scorecard disagreement.

Bantamweight

Luke Sanders (11-1) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (11-5)

ODDS: Sanders (-230), Soukhamthath (+190)

ANALYSIS: Here are two bantamweights that have caught rough breaks due to the combination of bad strategy and worse luck. Soukhamthath could easily be 2-0 in the UFC but wound up losing razor-thin split decisions to Albert Morales and Alejandro Perez. In both fights, Soukhamthath eased up on the gas pedal in weird moments, dove for takedowns at the worst times and was his own worst enemy. Meanwhile, Sanders carried an unbeaten 11-0 mark into his March showdown with Iuri Alcantara, started destroying the Brazilian and then launched a blatantly illegal knee that gave Alcantara recovery time from his onslaught; Sanders was promptly kneebarred in the second round. He had his Sept. 16 bout with Felipe Arantes fall apart when Arantes fell ill during fight week. This fight with Soukhamthath was supposed to be against top-10 opponent in Bryan Caraway before Caraway pulled out due to injury, as he so often does. The kind of indiscretions Sanders has shown are more negotiable in this fight. It may be true that against Alcantara he got too wired and aggressive, leading to the illegal knee and having his leg rolled up on. That aggression, however, is part and parcel of his in-your-face wrestler-boxer style. “Cool Hand Luke” throws heavy kicks and bombing left hands from his southpaw stance, darting into the clinch and applying tremendous grappling and pounding pressure. Soukhamthath is a far craftier muay Thai stylist and is hard to hold down, but Sanders will be more concerned with slamming and pounding him than explicitly controlling position. Soukhamthath is durable and has never been stopped in his pro or amateur MMA career, but his output is too marginal, even with his fantastic body attack and clinch work, to gain an upper hand on the more athletic, frenetic Sanders. Sanders wins a high-paced, grinding decision.

Flyweight

Carls John de Tomas (8-1) vs. Alex Perez (18-4)

ODDS: Perez (-400), de Tomas (+325)

ANALYSIS: Perez has been a pro since he was a teenager, and at 25 years old, he is just starting to hit his stride. Since his last loss to UFC vet Jared Papazian in May 2016, Perez has become a sharper striker, learned how and when to implement his powerful wrestling and developed into a far more effective submission grappler, as evidenced in his last appearance, earning a UFC deal by hitting a smooth anaconda choke on Kevin Gray at Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series 5. De Tomas, 21, seems like a manageable mark for Perez’s Octagon debut. “Golden Boy” put his record together by finessing wins over inexperienced and underskilled opponents in his native Philippines and looked completely out of his depth against undefeated Japanese prospect Naoki Inoue in June. In all three rounds, virtually identical each time, Inoue took the mount and back control with simple counters off of de Tomas’ desperate double-leg attempts. De Tomas is a southpaw with hand speed, yet struggles to throw combinations and allows his opponent to walk him around the cage. Perez should be able to push his agenda early, stalking and exploding with heavy, long combinations and then choosing whether or not to implement slams and ground-and-pound. The only major fear for Perez here is diving headlong into a submission in a moment of arrogance. Perez on points is the pick, but the Californian has uncommon power in his mitts for a flyweight, so do not be shocked by a stoppage.

Bantamweight

Merab Dvalishvili (7-2) vs. Frankie Saenz (10-5)

ODDS: Dvalishvili (-155), Saenz (+135)

ANALYSIS: How quickly things can change. One minute, Saenz was a cool 3-0 in the UFC and even in his mid-30s seemed to have some surprising, untapped potential. Now, he is back to just being Henry Cejudo’s training partner and likely fighting for his UFC contract, having suffered three consecutive losses and entering his bout with debuting Dvalishvili as a slight underdog. A Ring of Combat bantamweight champion, Dvalishvili is a Serra-Longo Fight Team product who has really sharpened his striking over the last two years. He is a more natural and powerful kickboxer than Saenz, who has a tendency to wade into strikes and get stunned. Saenz is incredibly crafty at landing constant punch rushes and volleys of leg kicks, however, disrupting and smothering opponents who are far better than he is in the standup. The key here will be the clinch, as Dvalishvili lunges forward to cover distance and prefers jockeying for position inside; that is where Saenz does his best work on the wrestling front. Saenz via active, competitive decision is the choice here, but if the Arizona native willfully abandons his wrestling, it could result in his fourth straight defeat and a pink slip.

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