Preview: UFC Fight Night 119 ‘Brunson vs. Machida’

Welterweight

Vicente Luque (11-6-1) vs. Niko Price (10-0)

ODDS: Luque (-125), Price (+105)

ANALYSIS: The close odds on this fight are predicated on a few things. Both Luque and Price are dynamic finishers with well-rounded offense; both of them have major defensive holes; and both are showing the sort of ongoing improvements that add a hard-to-forecast element to the contest. Price, 28, is unbeaten in the UFC, but his February knockout of Alex Morono was overturned to a no-contest after he became one of the three fighters on the UFC Fight Night 104 card to get popped for cannabinoids. However, Morono was taking Price to the woodshed early on, nearly stopping him in Round 1 by countering him with body kicks and wild left hands before eventually eating a lethal knee at the second-round horn. In Luque’s last outing, he was foiled by the underrated offensive wrestling of Leon Edwards. Despite Price’s submission savvy, Luque is the all-around better positional grappler and the more serious submission threat. The Brazilian’s front headlock game is a serious problem, and he shows a similar stylistic trait to Tony Ferguson, hurting opponents with sudden, stance-fluid combinations of strikes before locking up anaconda and brabo chokes. However, Luque attacks with more pressure out of the gate than “El Cucuy,” and his immediate, in-your-face approach may work well here. Price is no shrinking violet, as shown in how he has built his unbeaten record. Luque figures to be the natural aggressor early on. His kicks will match -- if not surpass -- Price’s from range, and more importantly, his lead left hand, which he deftly turns into a power punch while attacking, can replicate some of the early problems Morono and Alan Jouban gave Price. We may be in for a fun 15-minute affair or a five-minute fracas with a finish, but the gun-to-the-head prediction here is Luque by stoppage in the first 10 minutes.

Middleweight

Antonio Carlos Jr. (9-2) vs. Jack Marshman (22-6)

ODDS: Carlos Jr. (-500), Marshman (+400)

ANALYSIS: The UFC has recently cooked up a lot of middleweight bouts designed to relieve the logjam in the top 10-25 range and start promoting some new contenders into bigger bouts. This is not one of them. These are the second-longest odds on the card, just behind John Lineker’s potential mauling of Marlon Vera -- and with good reason. Wales’ Marshman has some mitts on him and is a formidable counter boxer. For a fairly straightforward pugilist in the MMA context, though, he is quite hittable standing and does not circle or use much lateral movement. His basic in-out movement presents a problem here, as he gives up six inches in reach and an awful lot of grappling skill to Carlos Jr. “Cara de Sapato” would be 5-1 as a UFC middleweight, if not for an 11-second eye poke debacle with Kevin Casey that resulted in a no-contest. His lone setback, a March 2016 stoppage loss to Olympic judoka and super dad Daniel Kelly, came in a fight in which he nearly finished his opponent in Round 1 and exhausted all of his energy in the attempt. The cardio and striking technique of Carlos Jr. still need major development if “Shoeface” is going to become a bona fide top-10 middleweight, but in this particular matchup, he should be able to swing overhands and swarm “The Hammer” back to the fence, where he can entangle him, trip him, take his back and work for a submission. Carlos Jr. by submission in the first 10 minutes is the pick.

Lightweight

Hacran Dias (23-5-1) vs. Jared Gordon (13-1)

ODDS: Gordon (-165), Dias (+145)

ANALYSIS: Not much has come easy for Gordon. He overcame multiple opiate addictions and three nearly fatal overdoses to break out as Cage Fury Fighting Championships’ featherweight titleholder and a serious 145-pound prospect. When he got the call to the UFC earlier this year, he wound up blowing weight for his June debut against Michel Quinones, clocking in at 149 pounds and reporting food poisoning-like symptoms. In reality, his body was forcing him back to 155 pounds. Now re-situated as a lightweight, he takes on Dias, the cripplingly conservative but always crafty Nova Uniao veteran. Dias is 2-4 in his last six appearacnes, but those losses have come to Andre Fili, Cub Swanson, Ricardo Lamas and Nik Lentz, a tough slate of opposition. This is essentially Dias’ role: He either separates the wheat from the chaff or serves as a difficult tune-up fight for an elite fighter. Gordon will by no means be able to run roughshod over “Barnabe” on the ground as he did to his countryman Quinones in June, but the Brazilian struggles when he is not the better wrestler. Gordon has superior boxing, especially with respect to actually attacking, which is not usually part of Dias’ game. “Flash” should be able to threaten and land with his hands on the feet if he wants to push a striking match against Dias, but he can also use that to set up his chain wrestling and put him on the mat. He will largely have to deal with doling out his ground-and-pound from full guard and will struggle to advance on the usually inflexible Brazilian, but hey, that is the fun of a Dias fight, right? Gordon on points is the pick.

Welterweight

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (17-5) vs. Max Griffin (13-3)

ODDS: Dos Santos (-220), Griffin (+180)

ANALYSIS:: Dos Santos lost the first 10 minutes of his raucous July brawl with Lyman Good at UFC on Fox 25 and should have dropped a decision, but he nevertheless wound up with his hand raised. Maybe it was judging karma for his May 2015 UFC debut, where he dropped a decision to Denmark’s Nicolas Dalby that should have gone his way. Regardless, the 30-year-old Brazilian could easily be 4-0 in the UFC and now he gets perhaps his least difficult dance partner to date. Make no mistake, Sacramento, California’s Griffin packs a serious punch and has major power in both hands. He has jabs in number, stuns foes with quick hooks and pounces for the finish. However, dos Santos is a more varied striker and literally lands twice as often, registering 4.24 significant strikes per minute to Griffin’s 2.12; and as we saw in his fisticuffs with Good, he can take a lick. If anything, dos Santos’ major problem has been his flimsy takedown defense, giving up 15 takedowns in his first four UFC appearances. Griffin, however, figures to be the last guy who is going to test his defensive grappling. Dos Santos’ consistent volume, his punching combinations coming inside and his knees to punctuate said combos should all pay rich dividends here, and if the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt wants a takedown, he can actually get one in his first Octagon bout where he will have a wrestling advantage. The Cristiano Marcello understudy rides his activity and superior skill set to a unanimous decision.

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