Preview: UFC 246 ‘McGregor vs. Cowboy’

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Light Heavyweights

Aleksa Camur (5-0, -115) vs. Justin Ledet (9-2, -105): Ledet’s move down to light heavyweight was questionable from the start, and it definitely has not panned out as planned. As a heavyweight prospect, Ledet showed some potential as a boxer with fast hands, but cutting down to 205 pounds has nullified any of his speed advantages and resulted in his getting dominated by quicker athletes. He badly needs a win here against newcomer Camur, a Dana White’s Contender Series alum who is looking for the biggest victory of his young career. Camur is definitely the better athlete, but he may not be the quicker one given his tendency to throw one powerful strike at a time. That may still be enough to beat Ledet. However, given that Camur has faced a particularly weak slate of opposition to get here, the call is for Ledet to keep him out at range and win a lackluster decision.

Flyweights

Askar Askarov (10-0-1, -125) vs. Tim Elliott (15-9-1, +105): This flyweight affair could be a sleeper for “Fight of the Night” honors. Elliott has had an up-and-down career since coming to the UFC in 2012, even temporarily sliding out of the promotion before earning a title shot against Demetrious Johnson through “The Ultimate Fighter.” Since then, Elliott has mostly been back to his old tricks, using a combination of herky-jerky striking and aggressive scrambling to cause chaos throughout his fights. Still, it has been a rough last two years for Elliott. Due to injury, he essentially missed the entire process of the UFC culling and replenishing its flyweight division, and upon his return, he dove immediately into a guillotine choke from Deiveson Figueiredo. Now, he takes on a Russian prospect in Askarov, who does not have quite as diverse a game as Elliott but generally has the same approach, looking to initiate scrambles in the hopes of finding a submission. That could work here, but Elliott is the more physically imposing fighter and a much more effective striker, if not a particularly pretty one. Add in that Askarov is the likelier of the two to give up rounds while trying to pursue a finish on the mat, and the pick is Elliott via decision in a coinflip confrontation.

Bantamweights

Ode Osbourne (8-2, 1 -130) vs. Brian Kelleher (19-10, +110): After missing all of 2019 due to injury, Long Island’s Kelleher settles right back into gatekeeper duty for his return fight. Kelleher’s greatest weapon and his greatest weakness is his willingness to hunt for offense at the expense of his defense, and his first two UFC bouts put that into stark contrast. After scoring a stunning upset over Iuri Alcantara via quick submission, Kelleher turned right around and got immediately tapped by Marlon Vera. Things were not going Kelleher’s way before his layoff, as he lost his last two bouts, but he looks for a fresh start against Osbourne. A Milwaukee native, Osbourne is an interesting but untested prospect with some finishing ability. This should be a quick affair that either sees Osbourne overwhelmed by his toughest competition to date or taking advantage of an opportunity that Kelleher presents. The 28-year-old newcomer has shown the ability to catch an overzealous opponent on the mat, so the pick is Osbourne via first-round submission.

Women’s Flyweights

Sabina Mazo (7-1, -115) vs. J.J. Aldrich (8-3, -105): Aldrich continues to chug along as one of the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster. Expectations were a bit low when the Denver native made it to the Octagon. She obviously had some natural skill, but her lack of athleticism figured to make it difficult for her to stick on the roster. However, Aldrich has gotten in better shape, which has allowed her well-rounded game to shine, as she has usually been able to knock off much more hyped prospects. She is in that spot once again. Colombia’s Mazo managed to use her long frame and powerful kicking game to dictate the terms of her regional fights, but she received a rude awakening in her UFC debut, as Maryna Moroz matched her in size and prevented “The Colombian Queen” from getting her game on track. Mazo looked much better her last time out, showing some wrestling and clinch work against Shana Dobson, but this bout looks like the UFC is either underrating Aldrich once again or overestimating how ready Mazo is to make a run up the ladder. Mazo still has some trouble when opponents take the initiative, and Aldrich figures to quickly get to work throwing combinations and taking things into the clinch. If Mazo does not suddenly make the big prospect leap here, this figures to be one-way traffic for the American. The pick is Aldrich via decision.