Preview: UFC 242 ‘Khabib vs. Poirier’

Welterweights

Belal Muhammad (15-3, -380) vs. Takashi Sato (15-2, +315): Muhammad remains one of the most underrated talents on the roster, as despite a successful welterweight campaign, he has mostly been buried on the prelims. Losses to Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal have aged quite well, and besides that, Muhammad has managed to break down every opponent in his way via one path or another. Muhammad has generally been a decision machine, which probably hurts his upward mobility in the UFC’s eyes, but he is far from a boring grinder, often using a volume boxing game to overwhelm his opponents. Sato should be an interesting challenge since the Japan native is a powerful counterpuncher, as he showed in his knockout of Ben Saunders in April. He has a chance of blasting Muhammad, but the Palestinian-American has historically been durable enough to survive danger. The pick is Muhammad via decision.

Welterweights

Nordine Taleb (15-6, -120) vs. Muslim Salikhov (14-2, +100): This should be an entertaining fight and a solid measuring stick to see what to expect out of Salikhov going forward. Russia’s Salikhov debuted with a ton of hype, both in terms of talent and excitement, as the former wushu champion has a tendency to throw some violent spinning strikes. Alex Garcia spoiled Salikhov’s UFC debut with solid wrestling, but Ricky Rainey was willing to meet Salikhov on his own terms and got knocked out for his troubles. Salikhov’s third UFC effort comes against Taleb, who is at a bit of a crossroads in his career. Taleb was reliably successful for most of his UFC tenure but showed some poor fight IQ in a loss to Claudio Henrique da Silva and just looked slower and sluggish against Sean Strickland. A win against Kyle Prepolec stopped the bleeding, but nearing 38 years of age, there is reason for concern about Taleb going forward. If Taleb relies on his wrestling, the win is there for the taking, but he has looked to that part of his game less and less in recent years. Plus, it is difficult at this point to rely on his fighting to a smart game plan. If Taleb tries to kickbox here, the pick is Salikhov via second-round knockout.

Middleweights

Omari Akhmedov (18-4-1, -120) vs. Zak Cummings (23-6, +100): An interesting fight matches two men who have moved up to 185 pounds with some success. However, Akhmedov’s move to middleweight has not solved his cardio issues, as he is mostly the same fighter, willing to throw power into everything before eventually finding himself exhausted and open for a late finish. Still, his March win over Tim Boetsch focused a bit more on his wrestling and saw Akhmedov last a bit longer, at least by his usual standards. He will go for another win against Cummings, who has won both his bouts since returning to 185 pounds but has not been particularly inspiring in the process. Cummings had a run as an underrated welterweight due to his powerful counters and a tricky submission arsenal, but he looked sluggish in recent fights against Michel Prazeres and Trevor Smith, and he needed a late club-and-sub to earn his last win over Trevin Giles. Akhmedov should be able to handle this early, as his aggression and power should manage to cow Cummings. However, the late rounds should once again be an adventure, particularly with a skilled finisher like Cummings. Nevertheless, the pick is for Akhmedov to hang on and earn the decision.

Lightweights

Don Madge (8-3-1, -185) vs. Fares Ziam (10-2, +160): Madge’s UFC debut was one of the more pleasant surprises of 2018. Not much was expected out of the South African prospect, but he blitzed the much more hyped Te Edwards early and often, constantly keeping him on his toes until the “Magic Man” scored a brutal second-round knockout. Madge originally had a significant opportunity here against Magomed Mustafaev in what was slated to be the featured prelim, but with Mustafaev out, he now faces a French newcomer in Ziam. There is a lot to like about Ziam, who has a solid range striking game and some grappling talent, but Madge’s aggression figures to overwhelm him. The pick is Madge via first-round submission.