Preview: UFC 238 ‘Cejudo vs. Moraes’

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Women’s Strawweights

Xiaonan Yan (10-1, -185) vs. Angela Hill (9-6, +160): A breakthrough from Hill would be nice to see, as she has already managed to establish a cult following through her charisma and personality. Nevertheless, the results in the cage have been frustrating. Hill washed out of the UFC quickly as a raw prospect, but a 2016 campaign that saw her rocket to Invicta’s strawweight championship portended bigger things for her UFC comeback. Instead, Hill has been stuck between styles as a kickboxer, either trying to adopt a movement-heavy approach her gas tank cannot handle or trying to make headway as a power striker who is just a bit too plodding. A quick submission loss to Randa Markos in March looked like it might completely derail Hill’s career, but instead, she has decided to make a name by fighting as much as possible. After stepping in on late notice to beat Jodie Esquibel in April, Hill will become the first UFC fighter with three bouts in 2019 -- narrowly beating out Donald Cerrone -- with another quick turnaround against Yan. For someone who did not face much competition prior to joining the UFC, China’s Yan has impressed as a consistent and aggressive striker, albeit against a middling level of opposition. For all her flaws, Hill would still be the best win of Yan’s career by far, so while the once-beaten prospect is perfectly capable of tiring out Hill and opening up all the flaws in her game, it is hard to pick against experience if these two women are just going to kickbox. The pick is Hill via decision.

Middleweights

Bevon Lewis (6-1, -255) vs. Darren Stewart (9-4, +215): The UFC’s aggressive matchmaking almost paid off with Lewis. He stood out on the most recent season of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series as an obvious talent but still needed to fill out his game around strong clinch striking. Naturally, the UFC immediately threw him in against a ranked middleweight in Uriah Hall. To his credit, Lewis looked much improved and almost pulled out the win, but come the third round of the fight, Hall did what Hall does and put out Lewis’ lights with one punch in his first significant moment. Lewis now gets the fight he probably should have gotten in the first place. England’s Stewart has been fun during his UFC tenure but has obviously been trying to figure out things. On the regional scene, he managed to march forward, throw offense and knock out opponents, but some tough losses early in his UFC career have obviously gotten into the head of “The Dentist.” Once he actually hurts an opponent, Stewart is still quite effective at hunting for the finish, but he has become inconsistent in determining the right moments to strike and pour on that offense. There is a chance that Stewart pull off the same trick as Hall and earn a comeback win with a signature moment, but this is basically a much safer version of a fight Lewis almost won anyway. The pick is Lewis via second-round stoppage.

Bantamweights

Eddie Wineland (23-13-1, -120) vs. Grigory Popov (13-1, +100): After a long career, things are finally winding down for Wineland. The former World Extreme Cagefighting bantamweight champ has always had an odd style, relying on the speed of his movement to get things done on offense and defense, and after a bit of a renaissance in 2016, he has returned to the point of diminishing returns. Wineland has not been getting blown out but was the obviously slower man against John Dodson and Alejandro Perez, and after losing close decisions to both, it becomes a question of how much Wineland wants to do this now that his window for being a contender has closed. It is unclear what the UFC is doing here by putting him against a promotional newcomer, as Popov has been crushing cans on the Chinese and Russian circuits over the last seven years and is somehow a few months older than Wineland. Popov is not terrible -- he has some power and looks competent enough on the feet to beat fighters who occupy the lower tiers of the UFC’s bantamweight talent -- but a loss for Wineland here would mean the wheels have completely fallen off. The pick is Wineland via first-round knockout.

Women’s Flyweights

Joanne Calderwood (13-3, -115) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (11-2, -105): This is a stacked card, but it is still baffling that a fight between two flyweight contenders was chosen as the opener -- unless the UFC already has reservations about the future of its newest weight class. Chookagian is quite the known quantity at this point, as she will consistently provide three rounds of an ersatz Holly Holm impression, constantly circling and trying to strike from a distance. She does not have the kind of elite athleticism that makes the former bantamweight champ truly effective, but Chookagian will almost always be able to stay in the fight, as her two losses have both been narrow decisions. She will take on a fan favorite in Calderwood, a Scotswoman who has found new life at 125 pounds. Primarily a kickboxer, Calderwood surprisingly scored a first-round submission over Kalindra Faria before handling prospect Ariane Lipski in January. While Calderwood might be able to win some individual exchanges, in the larger picture of the fight, Chookagian should be able to do what she does and frustrate her way to a decision victory.