Preview: UFC 224 ‘Nunes vs. Pennington’

Welterweights

Warlley Alves (11-2) vs. Sultan Aliev (14-2)

Odds: Alves (-240), Aliev (+200)

Alves has toned back his typical blitzing style since suffering his first professional loss to Bryan Barberena. Across his first several UFC outings, Alves came out like a house on fire, winging power punches and flashy kicks before selling out for a guillotine in the very first tie-up. But the 27-year-old would gas badly after a round of such frenetic finish-hunting. Alves avoided “glass cannon” status by being extremely tough, even when horribly fatigued. He fought a more measured fight against Kamaru Usman but still faded down the stretch under the Nigerian’s relentless pressure. The X-Gym product again kept his aggression in check against Salim Touahri, controlling the majority of the fight with his dynamic striking while mixing in a couple takedowns. Aliev fights for the first time in nearly a year and a half when he returns against Alves. The Dagestani International Master of Sport in combat sambo is a low-output, powerful striker -- particularly with his left hook -- with a grinding wrestling game. He was able to bleed the clock from top position and capture his first Octagon win at the expense of Bojan Velickovic, but he has showed little of the punishing finisher from the Russian regional circuit. If the ATT export pursues the clinch early, he may well find himself ensnared in Alves’ patented guillotine. If not, he’ll still be in a kickboxing battle with a superior, more diverse striker with an iron chin. Alves puts Aliev to sleep in the first or outpoints across 15 minutes.

Middleweights

Thales Leites (27-8) vs. Jack Hermansson (16-4)

Odds: Hermansson (-155), Leites (+135)

Leites has been uneven of late, losing to his ranked opposition while defeating journeymen Sam Alvey and Chris Camozzi. His resurgence in 2014-2015 saw him utilize his newfound striking, highlighted by crushing leg kicks and powerful hook combinations. The longtime BJJ black belt used these tools to supplement his pressure, with which he could transition to takedown attempts. On top or riding his opponent’s back on the cage, he controls while softening his man up and hunting for chokes. Lately though, as his age advances and he grows slower and less durable, his confidence in his kickboxing has faltered. As a consequence, Leites can become increasingly desperate to take the fight to the floor, crippling his offense. Hermansson, too, enjoys top position, but he is a volume kickboxer primarily. “The Joker” takes time to get warmed up in a fight. Early on, there is lots of bouncy movement, but he flinches away from strikes and bites on every feint, making the pressure he prefers untenable. Once he starts to find the timing, though, he counters much more effectively and lets his hands go in combination. The Swede has a Greco-Roman wrestling background, making his clinch striking and takedown defense very strong as well. His own takedowns are only so-so, enough to plant middling opposition but not something he can rely on against the upper echelon of his division. Hermansson’s loss to Cezar Ferreira -- the Brazilian caught a kick for a takedown, advanced position, and sunk an arm-triangle choke -- is instructive here. Leites mostly uses the clinch for his takedowns, and that will be difficult given the Frontline Academy export’s base. Without a submission or a knockout, Leites will get outworked as Hermansson gets stronger. Hermansson by decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Alberto Mina (13-0) vs. Ramazan Emeev (16-3)

Odds: Emeev (-220), Mina (+180)

Mina is fighting for the first time in nearly two years. The new Kings MMA fighter is a black belt in BJJ and judo, but so far in the UFC, he’s done most of his work on the feet. Despite being undefeated, Mina’s big-show career hasn’t been exactly impressive. The Brazilian’s striking has been sloppy at times, but newfound pressure under Rafael Cordeiro seemed to pay dividends in a knockout of Mike Pyle. He draws the assignment in Emeev’s sophomore effort, following Emeev’s one-sided decision over Alvey. The former M-1 champion showed off tight, reliable striking in that bout, but his background is in wrestle-grappling. He is another International Master of Sport in combat sambo on this card. Emeev may be hesitant to play around in Mina’s guard, but he is no slouch on the mat himself, boasting seven submissions. In the end, he’ll be able to dictate where this fight takes place. The Russian will do a fair amount of wall-and-mauling, mixing in effective kickboxing and takedowns to take a decision.

Middleweights

Markus Perez (9-1) vs. James Bochnovic (8-2)

Odds: Perez (-325), Bochnovic (+265)

Both middleweights are looking to rebound from debuts in which they were dominated, Bochnovic by Trevin Giles and Perez by Anders. But outside the first minute, Bochnovic got almost nothing done, getting repeatedly taken down and pounded on before being finished in the second. Perez managed to survive and land some meaningful offense, but he was still rag-dolled at times and had to show off an incredible chin to hear the final horn. While neither man will be physically overpowered in this matchup, Perez seems like the fighter with the more complete skill set. Bochnovic is a kickboxer who can string punches and kicks together and make use of his 6’4” frame in doing so, and he boasts seven submissions across his eight wins. But the Ben Rothwell protégé is hittable, has porous takedown defense, and pursues submissions so aggressively on the mat that he accepts bad positions and eats huge shots. Perez is a BJJ brown belt with a Muay Thai background as well. While the Brazilian can struggle to pull the trigger at times, he is more put-together, consistent, and well-rounded. Perez by second round submission is the pick.

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