Preview: UFC 208 ‘Holm vs. de Randamie’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

***

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

***

BEST VALUE: Nik Lentz at +200. When I picked Chas Skelly to beat Darren Elkins at UFC 196, my colleague Zane Simon cautioned me: “Don’t expect anyone to outdo the original.” In other words, Skelly was going to scrap and scramble with Darren Elkins, who has been successfully doing just that for about a decade now. I did not heed his wise words then, but I believe the same rule applies here. Islam Makhachev is a bright prospect, but he is also going to challenge Lentz in Lentz’s area of expertise; and Lentz is dangerous enough that Makhachev might even find himself on the wrong side of a finish. It is hard to outdo an expert at his own game, and it is very hard to out-Lentz Lentz.

LIVE DOG: Jared Cannonier at +140. Yes, some of my Cannonier pick has to do with a hunch. I do not know how much more time Glover Teixeira has left as an elite fighter, and his game stopped evolving some time ago, whereas Cannonier is improving and growing more confident all the time. Hunches aside, however, Cannonier just might have a stylistic edge over the slow-footed Teixeira, and so long as he can avoid being taken down every round, his sharp striking could very well carry him to victory.

SURE THING: Dustin Poirier at -465. Jim Miller is a great fighter, but this is a terrible matchup for him. Essentially, he will have no choice but to bang it out with Poirier, who can stuff takedowns, take punches and deliver thunder in return.

CAN’T MISS: Anderson Silva vs. Derek Brunson. Yes, Silva is not the man he used to be. Yes, you will feel sad if he loses. However, just imagine how happy you and I and everyone but Brunson will feel if he manages to get another highlight-reel win in the twilight of his career. Regardless of the result, Brunson is absolutely down to fight, and Silva has been cultivating his vicious counterpunching for many, many years. Watch it for the thrills and spills, but most of all, watch it for the feels.

SMOKE BREAK: Roan Carneiro vs. Ryan LaFlare. If one fight on this card is destined not to be a banger, this is it. LaFlare and Carneiro should put on an interesting fight, especially if they mix it up on the ground, but almost every other bout on this card features at least one crazy action fighter. Not so here. Sorry, guys.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.