Preview: UFC 206 ‘Holloway vs. Pettis’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: Misha Cirkunov-Nikita Krylov to go over 1.5 rounds. That line is currently set at +105, and I like that quite a bit. Both Krylov and Cirkunov are durable, and neither man is so destructive with his skill set of choice that an early finish seems likely. Cirkunov might be worth a bet himself at -125 odds, but the total is safer.

LIVE DOG: Drew Dober. He is a chancy pick, but Dober seems to be entering his physical prime while making consistent improvements at his new camp. Olivier Aubin-Mercier, on the other hand, has yet to really deliver on the promise of his potential and may be one of those fighters who never get over the hump, a la Brandon Thatch. Dober is currently the underdog to the tune of +140 -- not great, but not bad for a small bet.

SURE THING: Jordan Mein. I am sorry, fight fans, but I am just not sold on Emil Weber Meek. Power and physique are on his side, but “Valhalla” will need to show a heretofore unseen level of technique to overcome Mein; and at just -160 odds, Mein is a forgiving favorite. You may also consider betting on Mein by knockout at +250, but for my money, the total is the bet to take. The odds of this fight ending in less than a round and a half are currently set at +110. That number looks good and provides a little security if Meek surprises us with a trademark early knockout.

CAN’T MISS: As is tradition, I will avoid wasting your time by recommending the fantastic main event. You already had that one on your can’t-miss list. Instead, I will recommend John Makdessi-Lando Vannata. A complex striking battle between a cagey veteran and a thrilling prospect, both of whom have consistent knockout power? What’s not to love?

SMOKE BREAK: Valerie Letourneau-Viviane Pereira. The fight is not particularly relevant, and while it could be fun, it could also be very ugly. I do not really recommend skipping any fight on this card if you can avoid it, but this one is well-situated for that mid-card beer run.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.