Preview: UFC 205 ‘Alvarez vs. McGregor’

Featherweights

Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12): Losing to Jose Aldo for a second time may be a tough pill for Edgar to swallow, but it does not change the fact that he is one of the featherweight division’s best fighters and one hell of a tough matchup for anyone other than the longtime champ. Stephens brings a lot to the table. He is tough as nails, heavy-handed and just plain mean. At Alliance MMA, his footwork and defense have steadily improved, and yet he retains his ability to flip the switch and enter stand-and-bang mode whenever necessary. Against Edgar, however, I doubt Stephens has the answer. He is a little too slow and predictable with his striking and not quite perfect enough with his takedown defense: Again, only Aldo can give Edgar’s wrestling that impotent, kid-wrestling-with-his-dad look. Edgar pushes too fast a pace and mixes up his tactics too well for Stephens, whose only hope is a knockout win. The pick is Edgar by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs. Michael Johnson (18-10): This could be the toughest test of Nurmagomedov’s career, and that is saying a lot. Not only did the Dagestani brute beat Rafael dos Anjos just before the Brazilian went on the best run of his career, but he remains unbeaten in 23 contests. That sort of thing may happen in boxing all the time, but Nurmagomedov’s resume might as well be a unicorn in the world of MMA. Still, Johnson is a tough nut to crack. Nurmagomedov tends to pressure his opponents with his grappling and, in the spaces between, confuse them with his awkward striking. Johnson will be the first opponent Nurmagomedov has faced who can strike effectively off the back foot. In fact, despite a recent penchant for pressure fighting, Johnson is really at his best sticking and moving, as shown by his recent knockout win over the surging Dustin Poirier. Johnson’s problem is his temperament. Nate Diaz got “The Menace” off his game with a healthy dose of taunting, and Beneil Dariush frustrated him with a steady diet of stinging jabs. In other words, he loses his cool. Johnson can stuff takedowns, but can he stuff the average 13.7 takedowns Nurmagomedov attempts every 15 minutes without letting it get to his head? It could go either way, but I will take Nurmagomedov’s consistency and aggression for the win. Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision is the pick.

Welterweights

Vicente Luque (10-5-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1): I love a quick turnaround. Most fighters are lucky to fight twice in a calendar year, but both Luque and Muhammad walked the canvas less than two months ago, only to jump right back in there against one another. Luque has one of those rough-but-respectable records, and like many journeymen, he is finding his way a few years into his career. Muhammad dropped his UFC debut, but he endured a tremendous amount of punishment before coming just inches from a comeback win -- in the midst of fasting for Ramadan, no less. His second fight saw him exchange blows with the scrappy Augusto Montano, absorbing his fair share of leg kicks but dominating the boxing battle before scoring a tasty third-round knockout. Luque has a few knockout wins of his own, but his specialty is the submission game and he lacks the wrestling prowess to consistently get Muhammad to the ground. Expect some chippy exchanges early on, but the pick is Muhammad by second-round TKO.

Lightweights

Jim Miller (27-8) vs. Thiago Alves (21-10): If UFC 205 is a UFC 200 do-over, then this fight makes absolute sense. Last time out, Miller rematched fellow action fighter Joe Lauzon in an exciting battle of wills, earning a hard-fought win. Now, he takes on another shopworn vet in Alves, and man, does it look like a great matchup. Alves has not fought since a loss to Carlos Condit in May of 2015, but he looked quite good in that fight -- and in two fights prior -- before the drawn-out finishing sequence. It would be unwise to call it a return to form for the former top contender, but Alves is not done yet. His fast-paced style of leg-chopping muay Thai is a good fit for this fight, as Miller is only usually able to outstrike grapplers. If Alves looked anything like he did in 2015, he should be able to stop Miller’s lackluster takedowns and outstrike him in an exciting battle on the feet. The pick is Alves by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Rafael Natal (21-7-1) vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10): “Journeyman” seems to be the word of the day when it comes to this event, and this fight is no exception. Both Natal and Boetsch have been around the block a few times. Natal has been fighting consistently since 2005, while Boetsch’s debut came in 2006. Boetsch is the more limited fighter, with strongman wrestling and wild punching his main tools, but he is surprisingly crafty in exchanges and scrambles. Furthermore, he is by far the harder hitter of the two, and Natal has a persistent bad habit of letting his guard down after an exchange. Boetsch could do to Natal what the aforementioned Kennedy did three years ago and clip him on the way out with an awkward punch. Since Boetsch is well into a steep decline, however, Natal should be favored to win. The Brazilian is a solid wrestler with serious jiu-jitsu chops, but he also has an awkward, out-fighter’s approach to striking. Count on him to kick apart Boetsch from long range, surviving a few close calls in the process. The pick is Natal by unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Liz Carmouche (10-5) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (8-0): If you go by the Wikipedia rule of quality, Chookagian is the worst fighter on this card. Fortunately, there is more to MMA than a blue name, and Chookagian has an excellent style that is rarely seen in the women’s bantamweight division. A student of the inimitable Mark Henry, Chookagian fights something like a less experienced, underpowered Edson Barboza, moving smartly about the ring behind a snappy jab and a bevy of quick kicks. Both Chookagian and Carmouche come into this fight off a win over the gritty Lauren Murphy, but Chookagian’s victory was the more impressive, highlighted by her specialized striking. Carmouche does like to strike from long range, but her attacks are more awkward, and she is far more tentative about using them. The biggest concern for Chookagian in this matchup is Carmouche’s strength. True to her nickname, the “Girl-Rilla” is a physical specimen and will be significantly more powerful than Chookagian, a former flyweight. Still, Carmouche’s recent penchant for long-range kickboxing should give Chookagian the room she needs to get another win. Chookagian by unanimous decision is the pick.

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