Preview: UFC 204 ‘Bisping vs. Henderson 2’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: For my money, the best bet on the card is on the main event, but do not bother picking a winner. Rather, bet on the whole thing to end in less than 2.5 rounds. Dan Henderson is too fragile to survive the kind of shots with which Michael Bisping was catching Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold, and Henderson is only going to win by knockout, likely in the early frames before his gas tank starts to go. Odds are at -120 that the fight ends in the first half.

LIVE DOG: There are plenty of options here. You have Henderson, of course, but if you are going to bet on him, you probably want to go the “by KO” route at +315. Ian Entwistle is always a threat with his crazy leg attacks, and Daniel Omielanczuk might have some value, too. For my money, however, Leon Edwards is the best underdog bet on the card at +195. I would make it a small bet if I were you, but that fight should be a lot closer than the odds suggest.

SURE THING: There are surprisingly few locks on this card. I am going to say Gegard Mousasi. Vitor Belfort is a bad man, but it takes a special kind of head kick to send “The Dreamcatcher” to the land of dreams, and Mousasi has a ton of other advantages in his favor. Mousasi is currently favored to the tune of -325. Not much value there.

CAN’T MISS: I could tell you not to miss Tumenov-Edwards, but the real pick is the main event. It is weird, to be sure. It probably should not be happening, but come on, no result will be dissatisfying. Either Bisping gets his revenge or Henderson wins again -- a development that become an incredible story and a fitting end to an amazing career.

SMOKE BREAK: Omielanczuk-Stefan Struve will likely be a very ugly fight. It is a heavyweight bout but not necessarily the good kind. Both men have been in some good scraps, but no one should count on another. If you need to make a last-minute beer run before the main event, this is the time to do it.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.