Preview: ‘The Ultimate Fighter’ 27 Finale

Women’s Flyweights
Montana De La Rosa (8-4) vs. Rachael Ostovich (4-3)
Odds: De La Rosa (-175), Ostovich (+155)

Both women were eliminated from the last season of TUF by women who were able to out-grind them -- De La Rosa against the cage by Montano and Ostovich on the mat by Honchak. They both rebounded with armbars at the finale. De La Rosa is long, lanky and fairly aggressive on the feet. She works behind the jab and has a nice counter right hand as well. The Team Takedown rep is willing to exchange in the pocket, but her tall posture and lack of head movement mean she is there to be countered by savvy strikers. And her technique starts to fall apart when she extends her combinations. In a nervous effort to hit her opponent as quickly as possible, De La Rosa starts arm-punching. But the former high school All-American wrestler is at her best on the mat putting her BJJ purple belt to good use. She scrambled very well initially to rebuff Mackenzie Dern’s first submission attempts before being swept later. Like many wrestlers, De La Rosa is much less comfortable on her back, and she struggled beneath Montano too. She is probably more technical than Ostovich everywhere, but the Hawaiian is much more powerful shot for shot. Ostovich has thudding right hand and fires quick, one-off kicks. But she likes lots of space to work, meaning she gets backed to the fence too easily. And her cardio is a little bit suspect. She was hurt on multiple occasions in Invicta, usually after tiring. Her feet stopped moving and her posture suffered. Ostovich typically does her best work from top position, where she has a good back-take and then starts hunting the rear-naked choke. De La Rosa should largely prevent Ostovich from taking the fight to her wheelhouse. De La Rosa outworks Ostovich on the mat and on the feet to take a decision.

Lightweights
Luis Pena (4-0) vs. Richie Smullen (3-0-1)
Odds: Pena (-370), Smullen (+310)

Two young and relatively inexperienced competitors from TUF -- both eliminated by injury -- square off here. Stylistically, the fight very much favors Pena. A 6’3” former state champion wrestler, “Violent Bob Ross” is a pressure fighter with improving standup. He keeps his hands by his chin at all times, but he can still be hit at the end of combinations as he backs straight up and leans his chin up and back. Pena is getting better at touching with his jab and leg kicks to score points rather than just going for jump knees or step-in elbows. His ground game has probably been his best skill set, though. The St. Charles MMA standout refuses to accept bottom position, looking for switches or to sprawl out and get to a wrestling ride. And he is aggressive on top without sacrificing position. Smullen is not much of a striker, typically wasting little time before grabbing a body lock and trying to trip the fight to the mat. He is an aggressive hunter of leg locks, but he will dole out punishment from top position or grind away, depending on his opponent’s ability to threaten him or get up. Smullen will struggle to get the fight into his comfort zone, and his Hail Mary heel hook attempts are unlikely to save him. Pena has demonstrated strong submission defense and a willingness to go for leg locks of his own. Both men have strong cardio, so this will be action-packed as long as it lasts. Pena pounds out Smullen in round two.

Lightweights
John Gunther (6-0) vs. Allan Zuniga (13-0)
Odds: Gunther (-190), Zuniga (+150)

Honestly, I’m a little surprised these two made it to the finale. They were both amiable characters, but Gunther lost to both finalists during taping, and Zuniga got run over by Giannetti as well. The Costa Rican has a short, stubby frame, so he has to really lunge to cover space, even with his leg kicks. He likes throwing the switch kick to the head too, speaking to his flexibility, though he’s rarely able to connect flush. Zuniga doesn’t throw at a very high rate, instead keeping a high guard and jerkily feinting. He’ll then bull-rush behind a flurry of hooks, often going to the body. Despite having some submissions on his record, Zuniga doesn’t look like much of a wrestler or grappler. That happens to be Gunther’s specialty. The teammate of Stipe Miocic is not a good athlete, but he does possess some takedown skill. Gunther is also willing to walk through punishment as he constantly presses the action. His hands are painfully slow, but he is willing to throw them. For these reasons, I have to pick Gunther to outwork Zuniga to take an ugly decision.

Featherweights
Matt Bessette (22-8) vs. Steven Peterson (16-7)
Odds: Bessette (-165), Peterson (+145)

These two featherweights are guaranteed to produce action. Peterson is a high-paced boxer-puncher who quickly devolves into a brawler. But he has been unsuccessful in two attempts brawling with fighters who used his aggression against him. Benito Lopez ran him into a long jab and plenty of other punches as Peterson tried marching inside his range. Davis got a perfect stylistic matchup from him, being able to fire off a punch-kick combination and slip or block the return fire before angling out. “Ocho” is relentless and has solid cardio and an incredible chin. He will keep up a hellacious pace but he isn’t especially fast or powerful. The BJJ brown belt is also an opportunistic submission hunter. But his lack of top-shelf wrestling and a propensity to jump on low-percentage subs means he rarely gets to put his ground skills on full display. Bessette is like him in a lot of ways. The Connecticut native also isn’t a great wrestler, and he’s down for a firefight, too. Bessette isn’t as durable as Peterson, but he’s also a more natural featherweight (Peterson has spent half his career at bantamweight), so he’s a harder hitter. “The Mangler” will switch stances and fire kicks to all levels before stepping in with powerful hook combinations. But the Underdog BJJ stalwart doesn’t have great lateral footwork and can get backed to the cage too easily by pressure fighters or wrestlers. The BJJ black belt is aggressive off his back but sometimes to a fault; he sometimes isn’t urgent enough about defending the takedown or getting back to his feet. Peterson will struggle to take Bessette down, and the former CES champion likely has the grappling advantage if it goes there. This is not a confident pick as Peterson could overwhelm Bessette with constant volume and pressure, but I’m going with the harder hitter and whom I believe to be the more skilled fighter. Bessette takes a “Fight of the Night” candidate by decision.

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