UFC on Versus 1 Preview: The Prelims

Eric Schafer vs. Jason Brilz

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The Breakdown: An underrated bit of matchmaking pits the paralyzing top control of Brilz against Schafer and his military-grade arsenal of submissions in a fight that could see the loser pruned from the UFC tree. With both fighters fresh off losses and trying to carve out a spot in the mutant pterodactyl aviary that is the light heavyweight class, the stakes are of the make-or-break variety.

How this fight plays out should be pretty obvious. Brilz is going to try and work his top game without getting his limbs or airway mangled by Schafer. While the path to victory seems obvious for Brilz, his mediocre striking and unproven submission defense make for a lot of unanswered questions.

In his bout with Ryan Bader at UFC 104, Schafer repeatedly employed an offensive guard to great effect and even managed to get the better of Bader in a few exchanges. Brilz doesn’t have the punching power Bader used to make up the difference, and his subpar guard passing means he’ll be stuck inside Schafer’s guard trying to work his middling ground-and-pound while avoiding a submission gauntlet. Given Brilz probably won’t score a stoppage with his ground-and-pound, he basically has to stay perfect on the mat for 15 minutes while scoring enough offense to keep the judges on his side.

The Bottom Line: Neither of these guys is going to set the division on fire any time soon, but Schafer is the far more offensively capable fighter while Brilz’s standard-issue top control isn’t going to win him many fights against even the mid-tier of the 205-pound class. It’s a lesson that will be learned when Schafer taps him out in the second round with a textbook arm-triangle choke.