UFC Fight Night 28 Preview

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Flyweights

Marcos Vinicius Borges Pancini (20-4-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Ali Bagautinov (10-2, 0-0 UFC)

The Matchup: Pancini will be competing at his third weight class in as many bouts in the UFC. “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” alum debuted in the Octagon with a third-round technical knockout of Wagner Campos at 145 pounds before suffering a second-round knockout at the hands of Johnny Bedford in December.

Bedford’s size and reach proved problematic for “Vina,” a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with an extensive kickboxing background. If a quicker path to the title is one’s goal, a move to flyweight is not a bad idea. With the promotion still gradually adding talent to the division, it might only take a couple quality wins to get a shot at the 125-pound belt. John Moraga, who challenged reigning titlist Demetrious Johnson after just two wins, is an example of someone who followed that path.

A former world champion in combat sambo, Bagautinov is one of the UFC’s newest additions to the weight class. The flyweight champion for the Russian-based Fight Nights organization, Bagautinov enters the bout on an eight-fight winning streak. The 28-year-old’s last two victories have come in a combined 52 seconds as he displayed a frightening combination of speed and power in his hands in dispatching Andreas Bernhard and Seiji Ozuka. Overall, the Russian has been balanced in how he ends fights, finishing four bouts by knockout and four by submission.

While the quick knockout triumphs speak for themselves, Bagautinov’s decorated sambo background suggests he should be able to hold his own in the grappling department, as well. Controlling range will be critical against Vinicius, who hurt Campos with knees in his UFC 147 triumph. Vinicius has been prone to surrendering dominant positions on the ground in the past, but he is resilient in defending submissions and is also capable of returning to his feet when taken down.

The Pick: This one could come down to who can dictate the tempo and range in the exchanges. Bagautinov is obviously explosive, but he must be patient against an opponent who is accustomed to taking on bigger opponents. Vinicius’ adjustment to the weight cut will also be worth watching. Vinicius earns a decision.

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