UFC 178 ‘Johnson vs. Cariaso’ Preview

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BANTAMWEIGHTS

Dominick Cruz (19-1, 2-0 UFC) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (20-7-2, 7-2 UFC): The former bantamweight champion returns to action for the first time in almost three years against divisional mainstay Mizugaki in an intriguing clash. Nobody has any real idea whether Cruz can regain his previous form of dynamic motion, constant pressure and output and underrated wrestling and grappling, or whether the repeated knee injuries have robbed him of the ridiculous conditioning that allowed his style to work. He faces a tough opponent in Mizugaki, whose mixture of combination punching and rugged wrestling makes him a difficult out for anybody in the division. Cruz by decision is the safe pick, but really, who knows?

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Jorge Masvidal (27-8, 4-1 UFC) vs. James Krause (21-5, 2-1 UFC): This profiles as an exciting fight. Masvidal is the quintessential mid-card action fighter, his game of sharp boxing, underrated wrestling chops and opportunistic submissions made more effective by his excellent cardio and output. Krause pushes a quick pace himself, throwing heavy low kicks, a sharp jab and a powerful left hand at range while being just good enough at wrestling and grappling to work his preferred game. I like Masvidal’s takedowns to be the deciding factor in an even striking contest, with the Cuban-American winning by decision.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Patrick Cote (20-8, 7-8 UFC) vs. Stephen Thompson (9-1, 4-1 UFC): Welterweights riding three-fight winning streaks collide in a veteran vs. up-and-comer matchup. Thompson has filled the holes in his wrestling and grappling, which allows him to work his venomous, unorthodox kickboxing much more effectively. Cote remains mostly a sprawl-and-brawler with a heavy right hand, but he is big and shoots for the occasional takedown. I think Thompson will work over the durable Canadian on the feet and take a lopsided decision.

WELTERWEIGHTS

John Howard (22-9, 6-4 UFC) vs. Brian Ebersole (50-16-1, 4-2 UFC): Two longtime veterans go to work in a battle to remain the designated gatekeeper for the middle tier of the welterweight division. Although he throws the occasional cartwheel kick, the core of Ebersole’s game is his clinch work and NCAA wrestling. Howard is also a capable wrestler but one with more venom in his striking game. I think Howard can keep the fight at range and beat up Ebersole for a competitive unanimous decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Jon Tuck (8-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Kevin Lee (8-1, 1-1 UFC): This is an interesting matchup of talented young lightweights. Tuck is a dynamic and talented grappler out of the MMA Lab with developing striking skills, while Lee was an NCAA Division II wrestler and has some boxing skills on the feet. I lean strongly toward Lee here on the basis of his wrestling skills and outstanding athleticism, and I think he can take a convincing decision with top control and combination striking at range.

BANTAMWEIGHTS

Manny Gamburyan (13-8, 4-6 UFC) vs. Cody Gibson (12-4, 1-1 UFC): Fresh off a somewhat controversial knockout victory over the unlamented Johnny Bedford, Gibson takes on veteran Gamburyan in the Armenian-American’s first cut to bantamweight. Cardio and offensive output were problems for Gamburyan at featherweight, and the drop to 135 pounds will not improve them, but his rock-solid judo base and winging right hands might translate better. Gibson is big, strong, a talented wrestler and a nicely developing striker with substantial pop in his hands. Even without the questions of the weight cut and Gamburyan’s advancing age, Gibson would be a tough matchup for the veteran. Gibson by decision is the pick.

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