UFC 177 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’ Preview

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Middleweights

Lorenz Larkin (14-3, 1-3 UFC) vs. Derek Brunson (11-3, 2-2 UFC): This is probably the second best matchup on the card. Although Larkin and Brunson are coming off losses, the former to Costas Philippou and the latter to Yoel Romero, both are talented athletes with great upside. They are clearly improving by leaps and bounds from fight to fight. Larkin has struggled with output, but he has rock-solid takedown defense to buttress his clean, smooth standup skills, while Brunson has a rangy, sneaky striking game that complements his excellent wrestling base. This is a close fight -- the oddsmakers have it even -- but Larkin’s technical punch-kick combinations and ability to stuff Brunson’s takedowns should allow him to take a unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Scott Jorgensen (15-9, 4-5 UFC) vs. Henry Cejudo (6-0, 0-0 UFC): This is a fascinating matchup. Onetime World Extreme Cagefighting title challenger Jorgensen badly needs a win to remain in the UFC, and Cejudo, the Olympic freestyle gold medalist at 121 pounds in 2008, has off-the-charts athleticism, wrestling skills and potential. However, his dedication to MMA has -- with good reason -- been questioned, and his skill improvement since debuting last year has been decidedly uneven. Cejudo could be the next flyweight champion or he could end up being a total and complete bust, which makes this fight difficult to predict. With that said, Cejudo winning by decision has to be the pick until we actually see him falter.

Heavyweights

Ruan Potts (8-2, 0-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Hamilton (12-3, 0-1 UFC): While neither Potts nor Hamilton is much of a threat to challenge Cain Velasquez or any other top 10 fighter in the near future, both are reasonably talented heavyweights. Potts, a South African who was knocked cold by Soa Palelei in his UFC debut, offers a diverse submission game and decent takedown skills. The 6-foot-5 Hamilton, who dropped his first Octagon appearance to Alexey Oleinik, is light on his feet for such an enormous man and brings more well-rounded skills to the cage than his opponent. He is a competent if not crushing striker, a solid wrestler and a good-enough grappler. I like Hamilton by slow-paced unanimous decision in this fight.

Bantamweights

Joe Soto (15-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Anthony Birchak (11-1, 0-0 UFC): This scrap lacks much name value, but both Soto and Birchak are talented additions to the roster. Soto, the first Bellator MMA featherweight champion, is a skilled wrestler. He prefers the single-leg with a variety of finishes and chains his takedowns together nicely; once he gets hold of his opponent, he is very difficult to shake off, both in the clinch and on the mat. Soto utilizes excellent ground striking and hits slick submissions in transition. Birchak, the former Maximum Fighting Championship titleholder, can likely match Soto’s technical wrestling skills. However, Birchak is a much more powerful and dangerous striker, although his wildness has been a problem in the past. I expect Birchak to overextend himself and give up a few takedowns early, but over three rounds, his athleticism and more dynamic skills should be enough to take a unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Chris Wade (7-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Cain Carrizosa (6-0, 0-0 UFC): Two unheralded lightweight debutantes open the card. Wade is the Ring of Combat lightweight champion, a Division III wrestler and plus athlete with solid kickboxing skills, while Carrizosa is an exceptionally aggressive and skilled grappler with questionable striking and wrestling abilities. Although there is not much to go on here, I like Wade to execute a sprawl-and-brawl strategy and take a unanimous decision.

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