UFC 114 Preview: The Prelims

Jesse Forbes vs. Ryan Jensen

The other pink slip grand prix bout of the undercard looks to trim the fat from the middleweight ranks. Whether it is Forbes or Jensen that end up on the cutting room floor depends largely on whether or not Forbes will work the meat grinder game plan he needs to in order to win this fight. That seems like an odd thing to say since Forbes comes from a wrestling background. While his skills have improved since his stint on the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” he still seems like the same tactically clueless kid that everyone hoped would grow up already.

There is no other explanation for why Forbes cost himself a potential win over Nick Catone by insisting on trying to strike even as Catone was racking up points with kicks and takedowns. If Forbes makes the same mistake again, he’ll get lit up: Jensen is the more versatile striker and he doesn’t give up any size to Forbes like Catone did. A fact that should only add immediacy to Forbes’ takedowns since much of his success against Catone was predicated on him maximizing a size advantage he doesn’t have in this fight.

That isn’t to say Forbes gets an instant win if he sticks to ground-and-pound. Jensen is surprisingly aggressive off his back with submissions. The trade-off of course is that he is vulnerable to having his guard passed, but Forbes tends to sit up in guard rather than look to pass anyway. Posturing up inside Jensen’s guard is only going to create, at best, a stalemate and could easily lead to the kinds of scrambles that favor the more offensively dynamic fighter -- Jensen.

What Forbes needs to do is grind this fight to a halt, and he has the skills to do it. A natural inside the clinch, Forbes is not only technically proficient in terms of his positioning but also has a natural grasp on how to generate power with short strikes. Pressing Jensen into the cage and scoring points with dirty boxing and ground-and-pound is a strategy well within Forbes’ game, but it’s hard to assume he’ll go that route when he avoided it like a plywood documentary against Catone.

Forbes winning a rough and tumble decision shouldn’t surprise anyone, but give me Jensen’s diverse offense any day over someone still learning on the job. Something along the lines of a second-round TKO or submission win sounds about right for Jensen.