The Ultimate Fighter 11 Finale Preview

John Gunderson vs. Mark Holst

The sole lightweight bout on the prelim slate should also serve as the night’s best grappling match. Both Gunderson and Holst work an aggressive submission-centric style and have no qualms about getting into wild scrambles in the name of snatching a finish. The difference between the two is that Gunderson is far more experienced at working his game against world-class competition while Holst was promoted to the UFC thanks mostly to his recent submission win over Corey Hill.

Tapping out substandard grapplers is poor preparation for Gunderson, who may not be an elite fighter but is certainly a savvy grappler. Holst isn’t going to roll over for Gunderson, and he should be good enough to make this into a quality fight. What he won’t and can’t do is be good enough to beat Gunderson at his own game.

Seth Baczynski vs. Brad Tavares

A rematch of the disqualification win Tavares took over Baczynski in the quarterfinal round of this past “TUF” season. There is almost no doubt that a spot in the UFC is up for grabs, and that spot is likely headed Tavares’ way. The more versatile of the two fighters and a better wrestler to boot, Tavares’ skill will shine through now that he has the benefit of a proper training camp.

While Baczynski certainly has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu to hang with Tavares on the mat, he’s not going to get the better of any scrambles or dominate position. When Baczynski can’t rely on his grappling, he loses a great deal of efficacy and his mediocrity in other areas becomes obvious. A submission is likely beyond Tavares’ reach, but he’ll take an obvious decision on the back of his grappling prowess.

Josh Bryant vs. Kyle Noke

The loser of the bout between Noke and Bryant will likely be shown the door out of the UFC. If Bryant has any interest in sticking around, he’ll make sure his UFC career isn’t decided on the feet against Noke’s atom-smashing punches. Granted, the Aussie slugger is lacking when it comes to all-around skills, but he can crack like few others and Bryant has the habit of trading recklessly.

Even if he keeps that habit in check, Noke is the more physically powerful fighter and won’t have much of a problem shucking off Bryant’s takedown attempts. Even if Bryant manages to get Noke down, he doesn’t have the submission skills to quickly take advantage of Noke’s suspect grappling. Bryant just doesn’t have the right style to beat Noke, which means he’ll eventually end up on the business end of a fight-ending salvo from “KO.”

Chris Camozzi vs. James Hammortree

The last of the housecleaning bouts featuring “TUF” cast members pits Camozzi against Hammortree in a hard-luck special. Both fighters experienced a lifetime’s worth of disappointment on the show thanks to injuries and nip/tuck decisions that broke against them. After going through the insanity that is “TUF,” you can fully expect to see these two brawl for a shot at staying in the UFC.

A slugfest definitely favors Camozzi’s reach and experience as well as his diversity of techniques. While Hammortree is content to throw nothing but power punches, Camozzi can mix it up and keep his opponents guessing. That will make all the difference for Camozzi and mark the end of Hammortree’s brief dalliance with the UFC.

Travis Browne vs. James McSweeney

The prerequisite heavyweight brawl of the card matches UFC debutante Browne against McSweeney for a shot at moving up in the suddenly stacked heavyweight division. This is one of those fights that mostly comes down to who lands the kill-shot first and, failing that, who has the cardio to last 15 minutes. Unfortunately for McSweeney, neither scenario will play out in his favor, at least not against Browne.

It won’t be an easy go of it for him, but Browne is a physically overwhelming striker and keeps a pace that McSweeney won’t like. More of a methodical fighter than Browne, McSweeney doesn’t much like being pressed since it taxes his gas tank beyond capacity. Either Browne puts him down in the first few minutes or puts him down once the cardio factor comes into play, but McSweeney will eventually go down.