Strikeforce "Shamrock vs. Diaz" Preview

Frank Shamrock vs. Nick Diaz

The matchup
Reminiscent of an old-time boxing grudge match, on paper, there’s no reason for Diaz and Shamrock to meet given their disparity in size, except for the easily renewed tenor of MMA’s oldest feud: Gracie vs. Shamrock.

Switch the players out and you have Diaz gunning to avenge the 21-second knockout loss of Cesar Gracie, his mentor, to Shamrock in 2006. There’s really no weight class rankings clarity offered by the match: Diaz, 18-7-1 (1 NC) competed in Elite’s newly created 160-pound division following a lengthy run at 170 with a string of memorable UFC scraps. Shamrock, 23-9-2, is a natural 185-pounder. It’s strictly a catchweight match based on their mutual ability to promote a good fight and put butts in seats. Shamrock-Diaz is happening for the same reason dudes with fauxhawks driving convertible Miatas should be doused with a full cup of Big Gulp while you pass them in the other direction -- it’s the principle of the thing that counts.

Keys to victory
With a 6-4 record in the UFC, Diaz proved to be one of the toughest guys to finish in the sport. Lacking an overpowering wrestling base, he still never shied away from going to his back in search of submissions or a clever sweep. With three of four wins as a 160-pounder in Elite XC, Diaz looked a bit stronger and was able to use his pressuring, grinding style to wear opponents down -- except for Karl James Noons, who used excellent counterpunches en route to a cut-induced stoppage.

Diaz’ style differs greatly from Shamrock, who in recent bouts has preferred a wait-and-explode standup approach. Shamrock’s ground game has always been excellent, but in recent fights he’s clearly gained so much confidence in the standing element that he is perhaps playing to the fans more by gunning for knockouts. Standing with Phil Baroni proved to be the winning strategy in a thrilling, two-way brawl. Doing so with Cung Le was the preamble to a game, but ultimately losing effort.

In short, Diaz -- regardless of what they weigh walking around, which isn’t much in terms of poundage -- will have to push the pace once more and assert himself against a very capable striker in Shamrock. But the Stockton battler has to make something good happen early. How he handles the clinch against Shamrock will be key, as Shamrock’s quick feet and heavy strikes could make it a bad proposition to trade from long range. However, regardless of the size of guy Diaz is fighting, he does stay very busy, peppering foes with shots close-up, working busy hands, and constantly pushing the pace.

For Diaz, he has to find a way to control the tempo while taking Shamrock out of his element. For Shamrock, he has to dissuade Diaz from getting into his striking/submissions groove by asserting his greater natural strength, whether standing or on the ground, and put Diaz into survival mode early.

Intangibles
Diaz, 25, is considerably younger than the 36-year-old Shamrock, whose mileage on his body is a real wild card. Could Shamrock be so overconfident that he’ll walk through the seemingly undersized Diaz? Could Diaz be biting off more than he can chew, considering that Shamrock is so much bigger and equally skilled on the ground? Diaz, who hasn’t been finished since the fifth fight of his career, has few equals when it comes to hanging in there in a long, drawn-out war. Will Shamrock, whose stellar conditioning was a thing of legend several years ago, be able to keep up the pace in another three-round battle despite the injuries and mileage?

The pick
This one has the makings of an intriguing fight, because Diaz is always up for a good scrap and Shamrock seems to have the right style to give him a handful. Unlike Cung Le, whose vexing standup left Shamrock with a broken forearm and nary a decent takedown attempt to show for it, Diaz figures to be there to trade. On the ground, however, is where both can score points from top position, as neither is remotely easy to submit. All things seem to point against it, but Diaz has a good chance at an upset here given his motivation and the age difference -- it depends on whether or not Shamrock picks his spots correctly or gets sucked into the wrong kind of fight.

For Diaz to win, he has to put Shamrock on his back before getting planted on his. If he does that, he wins a decision, as that will be key to making Shamrock exert energy without scoring effective points. If not, Diaz loses another tough decision.