Once upon a time not long ago, when people wore pajamas and lived life slow, Shooto had a recently fallen world champion in Mamoru Yamaguchi (Pictures) in need of some rebuilding after a huge upset loss to veteran Masahiro Oishi (Pictures). It was under this pretense that Shooto promoters pitted Mamoru against novice Brazilian Robson Moura (Pictures).
Moura, who had no documented MMA bouts, was heading into the ring with one of Shooto's stars armed with nothing but his Brazilian jiu-jitsu background. While Moura's resume on the mats, which boasted six BJJ world championships, was sensational, this was 2002 and people were smart enough to realize that this wasn't UFC 1, and you needed more than just BJJ to win, especially against a great fighter such as Mamoru.
Unfazed, Moura shocked the world, relying on just his outstanding technical grappling. Mamoru had no answer off of his back for Moura's control and technique, and despite the fact Moura did not launch any particularly damaging or perilous attacks, he won handily.
The moral of this story?
Despite being considerably less experienced, and not nearly as well-rounded than Abe, Otero, like Moura against Mamoru, possesses such an outstanding top game that even if he can't stand and exchange strikes effectively, if he can secure takedowns, his top control and sensational guard passing may be all he needs to win the necessary portions of the fight.
Furthermore, unlike Moura, Otero has shown great ground-and-pound skill, as he showcased in his last bout against Shooto veteran "Tomohilock '84" Tomohiro Hashi (Pictures), back in his native Brazil.
While Hashi is a wholly unspectacular competitor, he has been in the ring with many of the best of Shooto's bantamweight class, and like many Shooto fighters, is very difficult to stop. However, Otero easily schooled Hashi on the ground, quickly and easily taking mount and pounding him out. This kind of ability is what makes Otero a much more intriguing fighter than Moura, and may up his chances against Abe.
What sets this bout apart from the first Mamoru-Moura match-up is that while Abe possesses a definitive stand-up advantage over Otero, he also has the defensive wrestling to execute an offensive game plan. Where Mamoru's sometimes suspect sprawl forced him to be gun-shy against a fighter whose only goal was to tackle him to the mat, Abe has much better takedown defense, with a solid sprawl and great Greco skills in the body clinch.
If he does get taken down, Abe has the offensive and defensive skills to handle himself. While he may not be able to lock Otero in his guard, he should be able to minimize the damage he takes, as Otero prefers to fortify dominant position before raining down blows or going for submissions, and Abe should be able to prevent himself from being controlled from side- or full-mount for any prolonged periods of time.
While Otero seems to be able to defend himself on the feet, his offense in that regard is predictably limited and geared towards closing the distance for takedowns. Abe has a solid striking arsenal, which coupled with his defensive grappling ability, should allow him to pick Otero apart on the feet. Because Otero is wary of his limitations and defends himself well standing, Abe won't have too many chances to unload power shots, yet should be able to assert himself and control the bout on the feet.
This fight has potential to be a spectacle, as Otero hypothetically could pull out a surprise by controlling Abe on the ground and winning a decision, or Abe could overwhelm an overmatched Otero by plunking him with strikes. However, more than likely, Abe will utilize a striking of a greater technical class to score points while having the defensive tactics to not get pinned down by Otero, and will take a comfortable decision.