Light Heavyweight
Sam Alvey (31-10, 1 NC) vs. Marcin Prachnio (13-2)ODDS: Prachnio (-280), Alvey (+220)
ANALYSIS: Alvey at one point had developed a reputation as an action-packed striker, which has ultimately proved to be aberrant, as “Smile’n Sam” over his last five UFC appearances has looked increasingly one-dimensional, slow and inert. He goes excruciating periods of time without landing effective blows. Given that trend and his decision to move up to 205 pounds, Poland’s Prachnio is about the last dude on Earth he should want to run into inside the cage. The 29-year-old Prachnio is a world-class kyokushin karate fighter who has taken silver and bronze medals at the European Championships. He is sharp and accurate, capable of throwing every strike in the book. His jab is clean; his right cross is nasty; and he can dexterously throw fight-ending roundhouse kicks with either foot without switching stance. When he hurts his man, he demonstrates incredible combinations and footwork, rushing in for the finish while changing angles and varying strikes to the head and body on the retreating opponent. Admittedly, he has atrocious takedown defense that may prove problematic in the UFC, but Alvey has literally never attempted a single takedown in 13 Octagon appearances. The only question here is whether or not the karateka can knock out Alvey, as the only man to do so at the professional level is the power-punching Derek Brunson. However, Prachnio’s aggression and Alvey’s obvious physical and strategic shortcomings give him an excellent chance come through. Prachnio by knockout in the first 10 minutes is the call here.
Bantamweight
Russell Doane (15-7) vs. Rani Yahya (24-9)ODDS: Yahya (-400), Doane (+310)
ANALYSIS: Doane snapped a four-fight losing skid with a first-round knockout of South Korea’s Kwan Ho Kwak in June. Like any self-respecting Hawaiian, Doane has some pop in his hands and can, of course, “just scrap.” The problem with Doane’s game is that he is often an all-too-willing grappler, both conceding takedowns to decent wrestlers and consciously engendering scrambles in which he gives up dominant positions and winds up being submitted. This is obviously going to be a huge problem against Yahya, who is as much of a one-dimensional specialist as you get in modern MMA. Yet behind his legitimately world-class grappling, Yahya has managed to go 9-3 in the UFC and has consistently beaten quality opposition over his career. The 33-year-old has looked to improve his striking game, now hosting his training camps at American Top Team and working with one of the best Brazilian boxers ever in Kelson Pinto. However, it is a no-brainer that Yahya will rely on the skills that made him a three-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and an Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships gold medalist. Amusingly, Yahya is far from a takedown artist, often shooting slow, sloppy shots out of desperation. However, the Brazilian is dogged and determined, averaging 10 takedown attempts per fight while often pulling guard or flopping the minute an opponent touches him. Given Doane tends to fight to his own worst instincts, it is hard to imagine Yahya will not eventually suck him to the ground, where he has an absolutely textbook and varied submission attack. Yahya gets this on the floor and manufactures a submission victory in the first half of the fight.
Flyweight
Alex Perez (19-4) vs. Eric Shelton (11-4)ODDS: Perez (-160), Shelton (+130)
ANALYSIS: The 27-year-old Shelton, an understudy of jiu-jitsu standout Rodrigo Pinheiro and UFC veteran Pete Spratt, is an underrated prospect. He choked out the unbeaten and second-seeded Yoni Sherbatov on “The Ultimate Fighter 24” and in his first two official UFC bouts got tough matchups against standout Alexandre Pantoja and the then-undefeated Jarred Brooks, going to razor-thin split decisions with both. When he got a more appropriate matchup against Jenel Lausa in November, he soundly won a unanimous verdict with his well-rounded game. While the Iowa native is a sound grappler, his efforts are predicated on his nifty and still-improving boxing game, which he can ably work from either orthodox or southpaw. Perez, 25, has won six in a row and continues to improve with each outing. He is a serviceable striker, most evident by when he pulls off his sudden, vertical jump knee, akin to that of Japanese legend Hayato “Mach” Sakurai. His game is more about explosive wrestling and sudden submissions, however, as the Californian is deadly from the front headlock position: He has pulled off an anaconda or brabo choke in three of his last four fights. While Perez’s highlight reel may look more impressive, he has struggled with strong boxers, and Shelton’s combination boxing from both stances, combined with his continuously evolving defensive grappling, seems like it could be a real hazard to Perez. Behind his diligent boxing game, Shelton continues to emerge and takes a decision in a minor upset.
Bantamweight
Manny Bermudez (10-0) vs. Albert Morales (7-3-1)ODDS: Bermudez (-195), Morales (+160)
ANALYSIS: Despite Bermudez’s glossy 10-0 record, the South Shore Sportfighting rep does not present as a blue-chip prospect. It is worth nothing that he was easily finished by a Grant Mosley triangle armbar in an October 2012 amateur fight and that the vast majority of folks thought he lost to Saul Almeida in their November 2016 contest. However, the 23-year-old is not without skill. He methodically paws and jabs at his foe from range, shoots sharp right crosses to close the distance and then works from the clinch to get the fight to the floor and set up his incredibly slick and sudden submission game. He is a great guard passer, moving to mount in the blink of an eye and securing armbars and triangle chokes in transition. In fact, he does not even need a takedown to set up his submissions in many cases, as Bermudez has a surprising amount of guillotine chokes set up or even finished from a standing position. Given how close nature of Morales’ bout with Andre Soukhamthath, the Californian could easily be winless in five UFC fights. His game is confusing. He has solid jabs and low kicks but goes for puzzling takedowns when he is having success standing, and he has a propensity to have long bouts of inactivity. Given the amount of awkward takedowns and clinching he does, this just seems like a recipe for a first-round Bermudez submission, including the very real possibility of another guillotine choke set up from the clinch.