Heavyweights
Andrei Arlovski (27-18) vs. Ben Rothwell (36-11)ODDS: Rothwell (-185), Arlovski (+160)
Faced without much in the way of better options for two heavyweight veterans, the time has come for the first Affliction rematch in UFC history. Arlovski won his first fight with Rothwell 11 years ago, and since then, it has been a crazy journey for “The Pitbull.” On the second -- and final -- Affliction card, Arlovski was knocked out by Fedor Emelianenko, a result that appeared to trigger the beginning of the end, as the Belarusian soon found his way to Strikeforce and got starched brutally twice in three fights. From there, Arlovski seemingly settled into the role of international journeyman, but he got the surprising call back to the Octagon in 2014; and in an even bigger surprise, Arlovski soon surged right into the heavyweight title picture. Some of the wins were absolutely ugly, but Arlovski reeled together four straight victories to get into a title eliminator against Stipe Miocic. However, as quickly as Arlovski rose up the ranks, his luck turned right around, as a loss to Miocic started a five-fight skid in which the former champion rarely looked terrible but was often overmatched against his competition. Arlovski has shown some impressive late-career evolution, diversifying his striking and adding some wrestling, but after stopping the bleeding with wins over Junior Albini and Stefan Struve, he has now gone without a win in his last four appearances. This is clearly the home stretch for Arlovski’s career, but at least a win here would delay the inevitable.
As for Rothwell, he found himself in the UFC in short order after Affliction’s days were done and hung around for a bit as a mid-tier heavyweight. He could reliably give anyone a tough fight, but alternated wins and losses without much direction. Eventually things came together for Rothwell to put together his own four-fight winning streak and make his way up the ladder. At first, it was the right matchmaking. Brandon Vera was past his prime, and Rothwell caught Alistair Overeem at the peak of his adjustment to a post-TRT world. Then suddenly, Rothwell flashed some impressively slick submission skills for such a massive and awkward man, becoming the first fighter to tap Josh Barnett with a front choke in early 2016. That is about where the good times ended for Rothwell. A main event spot against Junior dos Santos saw the former heavyweight champ pick apart Rothwell for a decision win, and a combination of injuries and drug test failures kept “Big Ben” out of the cage for nearly three years before he returned in March. The good news is that Rothwell’s awkward, plodding style looked about the same as ever, but Blagoy Ivanov managed to walk away from their bout with a narrow decision win. It is up to Rothwell to get a victory here to try and give his career any momentum.
It is difficult to have much faith in either man at this point. While Arlovski has diversified his output, he has also slowed down said output to the point that even when he is doing well, he is still losing narrow fights to the likes of Walt Harris and Augusto Sakai. At the same time, Rothwell’s last bout saw him try to march down Ivanov, only to get countered and lose his own narrow decision, which is a game plan that Arlovski can probably follow. This figures to be a frustratingly slow-paced affair, and given that Rothwell looks like the less shopworn fighter and given the fact that he is the stronger fighter in the clinch and on the mat, the pick is “Big Ben” via decision.
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