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Middleweights
Gregory Rodrigues (11-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Julian Marquez (9-2, 3-1 UFC)ODDS: Rodrigues (-170), Marquez (+150)
This should be an entertaining affair, which is true of most fights involving Marquez. It is hard to believe that “The Cuban Missile Crisis” has already been on the UFC roster for five years, as injuries have limited him to only four fights in that time. That strikes an amusing contrast to how things play out for Marquez’s fights inside the cage, where he seems more than willing to lean on his apparent indestructibility. Marquez’s fights almost always see him get the worst of the action, whether via getting outwrestled or eating damage, before turning things around. It is telling that Marquez’s only UFC loss to date has come against Alessio Di Chirico—the only opponent who attempted to neutralize him rather than take advantage of his lack of defense head-on. To his credit, Marquez seemed set on fighting a smarter fight in his last appearance, an April 2021 win over Sam Alvey, though it is a bit difficult to know what to make of it going forward. Alvey is about as forgiving a matchup as there is on the roster in terms of Marquez being allowed to pick his spots, and it has been another year-plus layoff for the Glory MMA rep heading into this return against Rodrigues. Brazil’s Rodrigues figures to be a frustrating talent for as long as he is considered a prospect, as he mixes a sound process and some obvious strengths with some clear weaknesses that may give him a solid ceiling. “Robocop” comes from a grappling background, but his default approach is often to just march his opponents down and hunt for a knockout. Rodrigues has the type of doggedness and thudding power to certainly pull that off, but his main issue is that it leaves him completely open on defense, often leading him into coinflip brawls. Rodrigues does have defense built into his game, but it is more of a mode that he switches on and off than anything he weaves into his offensive approach. While the Brazilian can smartly take some time off and recover after he takes damage, he is just as likely to put himself back into the line of fire. His Contender Series loss to Jordan Williams is a clear example of how things can suddenly go wrong, but Rodrigues also skated by in a war against Jun Yong Park and narrowly lost his last bout to Armen Petrosyan. Given Marquez’s durability and persistence, it is also a clear concern if Rodrigues comes with his usual aggressive gameplan, so it will be interesting to see if he leans on his wrestling and grappling. Marquez’s own grappling ability is usually his secret weapon of sorts against most of the middleweight division, but Rodrigues is talented enough on the mat that he may find that to be a way towards reliable control. Rodrigues is probably going to win this fight up until the moment that he potentially loses it, so this is basically a coinflip where Marquez is likely worth the flier. The pick is Marquez via second-round knockout.
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