Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Whittaker vs. Brunson’

Featherweights

Dan Hooker (13-6) vs. Jason Knight (14-2): Hooker is an incredibly entertaining fighter. His UFC career got off to an inconsistent start, as both Maximo Blanco and Yair Rodriguez comfortably outstruck him. At the very least, Hooker made Blanco pay for his assaults, whereas he was curiously stymied by Rodriguez’s frenetic movement. Now, however, Hooker is training out of the ever-growing Elevation Fight Team, and the camp switch resulted in a remarkable guillotine just over a minute into his last fight. Knight has proven he is a rugged fighter, and he was impressive in his last fight against Jim Alers, but he is still far too reliant on his guard to win fights; and that strategy simply does not work consistently at this level. If Rodriguez could not submit Hooker, neither will Knight, and Hooker is a more dangerous and durable striker than Alers by far. The pick is Hooker by third-round TKO.

Welterweights

Richard Walsh (9-4) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-1): Meunier did not get much of a chance to prove his worth in his UFC debut, a one-sided loss to uber-wrestler Colby Covington; his sophomore effort comes against a more forgiving opponent. Both Meunier and Walsh are muay Thai specialists, with Walsh preferring a pressuring style while Meunier likes to counter and pot-shot more from the outside. Both men are dangerous in the clinch, and both men are solid grapplers when the need arises. Walsh’s wrestling is more oriented toward grinding and ground-and-pound, while Meunier is more of a scramble-heavy submission artist. The fact that Walsh has experienced stamina issues in the recent past does not look good, but then again, Muenier was submitted the only time we have seen him in the third round. This should be an entertaining fight, with both men getting the opportunity to show off their striking technique. In the end, Meunier’s more defensive style has the edge over Walsh’s dangerous but vulnerable pressure fighting. The pick is Meunier by third-round TKO.

Flyweights

Ben Nguyen (16-6) vs. Geane Herrera (9-2): Herrera was almost completely dominated by Ali Bagautinov in June, but he did show tremendous heart, surviving two rounds of brutal punishment and very nearly finishing the Russian in the third. That courage and tenacity will serve him well in this matchup against a dangerous but vulnerable opponent. Nguyen has largely overcome the grappling issues that plagued him earlier on in his career, and he is quite dangerous on the feet, slipping his way into the pocket and throwing heat with both hands from both stances. Against Louis Smolka, however, Nguyen exhausted himself by attempting to compete with the submission specialist on the ground. If Herrera can pull the trigger and pursue the takedown, he could very well put Nguyen through the same gauntlet. The difficult part will be competing on the feet, where Herrera is far from bad technically but often struggles to let his hands go and initiate exchanges. Herrera’s chin should carry him in the standup, however, whereas Nguyen’s gas tank may not carry him on the floor. The pick is Herrera by third-round submission.

Flyweights

Zhikui Yao (2-3) vs. Jenel Lausa (6-2): Yao has a lot of potential as a young flyweight prospect. He seems to carry some pop in his hands, and he has an instinct for movement that is all but necessary in this division. While his last fight ended in disappointing fashion when he injured his arm posting on a takedown from Fredy Serrano, there is still room for the rapidly improving young fighter to grow. Lausa will do his best to stop that growth short, and he is certainly a powerful enough striker to give Yao problems. Lausa’s issue in the UFC’s flyweight division will be one of style. He reads very “muay Thai,” planting his feet in front of his opponent and waiting for an opportunity to defend or attack. He will not find many willing to embrace that kind of slow-paced fight, and if his controversial win over Nolan Ticman is any indication, Yao will not be keen to stand around. Still, I do not know if Yao has gotten comfortable enough in the cage to close the distance and land strikes and takedowns when he needs to. Until I see it, I will be forced to take a dangerous striker over him. The pick is Lausa by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Seo Hee Ham (16-7) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-2): Ham probably deserved the nod in her fight with Bec Rawlings in March. That she did not get it speaks to the challenges she will continue to face in this division. Ham now competes as a strawweight, but her frame is clearly suited for atomweight, where she competed before coming to the UFC. When Rawlings landed, it snapped Ham’s head back; when Ham landed, the impact was noticeably softer. When Rawlings stalled out Ham in the third round, the diminutive Korean could do little but strike with her back to the fence. There will almost always be a size and strength disadvantage for Ham in this division. I say “almost always” because Ham now has the fortune of fighting one of the few strawweights even shorter than her. Taylor does not, however, lack for punching power. Taylor’s debut came against contender Maryna Moroz, and while she did not find the knockout, she succeeded in hurting Moroz with a heavy right hand. The rest of Taylor’s game is less developed, and while she has good timing with her power punches, she was forced into a defensive shell by the output of Moroz. Taylor will need a stoppage or more than one knockdown to overcome Ham’s volume on the scorecards. Ham by unanimous decision is the pick.

Light Heavyweights

Tyson Pedro (4-0) vs. Khalil Rountree (4-1): This one should be a banger. Rountree is a powerhouse striker, who, being inexperienced, does not seem to understand the concept of energy management. Pedro may very well have the same problem, though it is hard to say since we have never seen him outside the first round. Stylistically, however, these fighters are quite different. Rountree is a muay Thai stylist with a penchant for thudding kicks and wild overhand punches. He is powerful, but his willingness to put power into every shot leaves him open to takedowns, and that happens to be Pedro’s specialty. The Australian prospect is not shy about trading strikes, but he tends to look for a reactive double-leg at the earliest opportunity and shows great promise on the ground, with heavy control and an aggressive submission game. So long as Pedro can survive Rountree’s early assault, his style gives him the edge. The pick is Pedro by second-round submission.

Bantamweights

Marlon Vera (7-3-1) vs. Guangyou Ning (5-3-1): Vera’s last UFC performance was marred by a number of head-scratching fouls from the Brazilian, who repeatedly dug his fingers into his opponent’s glove and the links of the fence. Not only did Vera lose a point, but he seemed to grow incredibly frustrated with the constant but justified interventions of referee Marc Goddard. Hopefully, Vera can sort out those issues, as he is a promising fighter with considerable athletic talent. As a striker, Vera likes to spring in from range with punches, kicks and flying knees. His strong suit, however, is the ground game, as four of Vera’s seven wins have come by way of submission. Ning could be a frustrating opponent for Vera with his heavy hands and wild, southpaw wrestle-boxing. More likely, however, he does not offer enough volume to throw Vera off his game. Vera by third-round submission is the pick.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.